99E Invest at EPAC

[cycloneye]

TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT SUN JUL 9 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY FAVORABLE FOR A SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

DISORGANIZED AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC FROM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EASTWARD. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Let's see if Bud comes out of this one.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Lets just hope this doesn't reach cooler waters so Bud can finally form.

[SouthFloridawx]

[AnnularCane]

Come on little buddy!

Little Bud.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I hope it bombs into a hurricane ever this hurricane season

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 100311
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT SUN JUL 9 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED
ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO REMAINS
WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



Will the EPAC finnally have Tropical Storm BUD?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Once it reaches those 90 degree waters this might aswell bomb.

[HURAKAN]

HERE WE GO, AGAIN!!!

[clfenwi]

Hot and fresh UKMET model guidance...

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.07.2006

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :

11.7N 107.6W


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 10.07.2006 11.7N 107.6W WEAK

12UTC 10.07.2006 12.2N 108.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.07.2006 12.6N 109.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.07.2006 14.7N 110.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 12.07.2006 15.6N 112.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.07.2006 16.3N 114.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.07.2006 12.9N 120.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.07.2006 11.4N 121.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 14.07.2006 17.2N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 14.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[AnnularCane]

Gee, doesn't sound like they have very high expectations. I think.

[clfenwi]

The model image posted by SouthFloridawx is not related to this disturbance, but rather one behind it...which the GFS is ultimately more aggressive with than this one...here's the equivalent graphic that corresponds to this disturbance:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... urrent.png

[HurricaneHunter914]

This could go past TS Bud and could become Hurricane Bud because of the water temps around this system. Though then again that's just my opinion and nobody should take it seriously.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice blow up of convection with a LLC starting to develop...There doe's appear to be northly shear blowing the cloud tops to the southeast. But this thing is organizing nicely.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice blow up of convection with a LLC starting to develop...There doe's appear to be northly shear blowing the cloud tops to the southeast. But this thing is organizing nicely.

[clfenwi]

Items of interest in the 04Z TWD

About the system itself

A 1006 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 12N108W AND MOVING WNW ABOUT 10
KT. THE LOW IS ATTACHED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 5N TO
15N. THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A
BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED E OF THE CLOUD SYSTEM
CENTER.

And the upper air features in the vicinity.

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF 20N118W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS FEATURE
COVERS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 12N TO 24N BETWEEN 110W AND 128W.

A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
15N105W. THIS FEATURE IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
LOCATED WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RADIUS OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE DEEP TROPICS E OF ABOUT 100W AND
IS AIDING IN THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD FORMATION W OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND S OF MEXICO.

Seems that the system is currently being affected by thie upper level cyclonic circulation, but is headed to the area of upper level anti-cyclonic circulation. Happy days ahead...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_m.shtml

[Meso]

:O Indeed.... might explain all the red on the hurricane prob chart

[clfenwi]

16Z TWD

LOW PRES 11N110W 1006 MB MOVE WNW 10 KT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT
10.5N109.5W. SLIGHT ORGANIZATION IS NOTED WITH THE CONVECTION
AND THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE SYSTEM HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT.

[WmE]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101632
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT MON JUL 10 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

[CrazyC83]

The EPac really is not very conducive to storms this season!

If something like this was in the Atlantic, I would have said development is virtually imminent. However, I can only give it a 60% chance of development in this situation.