Severe Tropical Storm Bilis (0604) at WPAC

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P.K.
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#21 Postby P.K. » Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:00 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 12.2N 140.0E POOR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 091500UTC 14.0N 138.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
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#22 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Jul 08, 2006 5:42 pm

Cyclenall wrote:Here is the Unisys track:

Image

:roll: Yeah...


It's in outer space!
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#23 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jul 08, 2006 8:21 pm

Still a TD.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 12.2N 139.0E POOR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 092100UTC 14.0N 137.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT =
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 09, 2006 12:06 am

09/0233 UTC 12.6N 137.0E T2.5/2.5 05W -- West Pacific Ocean
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#25 Postby clfenwi » Sun Jul 09, 2006 12:40 am

UKMET 00Z model run

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 138.5E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 09.07.2006 11.8N 138.5E WEAK

12UTC 09.07.2006 13.0N 137.9E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.07.2006 15.9N 134.3E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.07.2006 15.8N 132.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.07.2006 17.7N 130.7E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.07.2006 18.8N 128.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 12.07.2006 19.5N 127.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 12.07.2006 20.6N 125.3E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.07.2006 20.6N 124.1E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 13.07.2006 21.4N 122.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 14.07.2006 22.1N 121.3E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 14.07.2006 22.3N 118.9E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 15.07.2006 23.3N 117.3E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
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#26 Postby P.K. » Sun Jul 09, 2006 2:35 am

We now have TS Bilis so the number in the thread title should be changed to 0604.
WTPQ21 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 13.4N 137.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 30NM
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 16.6N 134.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 110600UTC 18.8N 131.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
72HF 120600UTC 21.0N 129.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT =
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#27 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Jul 09, 2006 2:45 am

Wow they upgraded it before the JTWC? WOW :eek:
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#28 Postby P.K. » Sun Jul 09, 2006 3:09 am

The track image is now up and can be found here.
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#29 Postby P.K. » Sun Jul 09, 2006 5:19 am

Still 35kts, 996hPa.

WTPQ21 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 14.0N 136.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 30NM
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 16.8N 134.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 110600UTC 18.8N 131.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
69HF 120600UTC 21.0N 129.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT =
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#30 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jul 09, 2006 7:09 am

Everything always happens while I'm sleeping :x

Anyway, thanks to whoever has been updating the thread title the past two nights.
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#31 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 09, 2006 7:11 am

WindRunner wrote:Everything always happens while I'm sleeping :x

Anyway, thanks to whoever has been updating the thread title the past two nights.


I am updating the title as things happen overnight everytime. :)
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#32 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jul 09, 2006 7:17 am

Well, thanks cycloneye, I appreciate your work here. 8-)
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#33 Postby P.K. » Sun Jul 09, 2006 12:27 pm

WindRunner wrote:Everything always happens while I'm sleeping :x


It goes both ways though, Wilma dropped 100hPa while I was asleep so I missed a fair bit there. :lol:

It has risen 2hPa to 998hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 14.3N 136.0E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 17.9N 132.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 111200UTC 19.9N 130.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
69HF 121200UTC 21.6N 129.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
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#34 Postby P.K. » Sun Jul 09, 2006 5:27 pm

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 15.3N 134.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 240NM SOUTH 120NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 102100UTC 17.4N 130.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
45HF 111800UTC 19.8N 128.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
69HF 121800UTC 22.4N 126.1E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
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#35 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jul 09, 2006 7:41 pm

Well, you do have a point there PK, but I was sleeping through that one too. :grr:

Looks a little one-sided right now. Forecast track points it toward the northern end of Taiwan right now.

Image
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#36 Postby Jim Cantore » Sun Jul 09, 2006 8:37 pm

Cyclenall wrote:Here is the Unisys track:

Image

:roll: Yeah...


I didnt know there were Moon Hurricanes. 8-)
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#37 Postby P.K. » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:26 am

40kts, 996hPa.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 16.5N 132.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 19.1N 128.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
48HF 120600UTC 22.0N 125.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 130600UTC 23.6N 122.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
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#38 Postby Yarrah » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:21 am

PAGASA has also given it a name: Florita
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#39 Postby P.K. » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:47 am

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 16.9N 131.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 19.5N 128.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
48HF 121200UTC 22.2N 125.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
72HF 131200UTC 24.3N 121.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
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#40 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 10, 2006 4:32 pm

Looks like it has developed a central core...Looks alot like how the powerful canes last year formed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t3/avn-l.jpg
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