Area north of PR looks more organized

boca · #41 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:00 am

Area still looks impressive even at 2am in the morning.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=139

Rainband · #42 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:15 am

boca wrote:Area still looks impressive even at 2am in the morning.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=139

I agree. Maybe if this area persists we could have something in a few days. At any rate, it will increase our rain chnces this week :wink:

#43 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:34 am

Looks like our friends inthe Islands are gonna have a wet day.
http://www.srh.weather.gov/ridge/radar. ... a&loop=yes

#44 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 3:44 am

Interesting comments from NWS Miami AFD this morning.

FXUS62 KMFL 100735
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...EASTERLY FLOW HAS KICKED BACK IN AND THIS INDICATIVE
OF RADAR AND THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING SHOWS IT UP ONLY
TO AROUND 5K BUT IN TIME WILL ONLY GET DEEPER IN TIME AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS N FLA. IN FACT, THE GFS
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS IT UP TO AROUND 25K BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL HELP IN PULLING BACK MOISTURE FROM CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
THAT MADE IT TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. BUT WITH THIS DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW, FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY
ALONG THE E CST AND AFTERNOON VARIETY FOR INTERIOR AND W CST
ZONES. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH DAY
TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. BUT POPS LOOK TO
BE PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMO THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ONE FEATURE THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IS THE UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW JUST NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO. NONE OF THE MODELS BRING IT THIS WAY BUT THE GFS
DOES SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF DRYING BY LATE THIS WEEK WHICH MAY BE
THE SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE GFS DID NOT
INITIALIZE WELL ON THIS FEATURE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW NEARLY STATIONARY. JUST SOMETHING THAT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS N OF THE REGION GRADIENT FLOW WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE. BUT FOR NOW LOOKS AS IF THE WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 87 78 / 40 20 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 78 88 78 / 40 20 50 30
MIAMI 88 78 88 78 / 40 20 50 30
NAPLES 91 74 90 75 / 50 30 50 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

30

#45 Postby **Starburst** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 6:11 am

I realize this area is not suppose to develop into anything significant but it sure does look bright and blobie this morning. :wink:

Nimbus · #46 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 6:26 am

The center of upper level circulation is just to the west of the blob enhancing the convection. If you look at the water vapor loop you will see the ULL circulation moving slowly northwest towards the front that should eventually pull the whole mess out.

#47 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:02 am

Nimbus wrote:The center of upper level circulation is just to the west of the blob enhancing the convection. If you look at the water vapor loop you will see the ULL circulation moving slowly northwest towards the front that should eventually pull the whole mess out.

The ULL is also being enhanced by a tropical wave to its south. It's possible if this junk sits around for a couple of days it could work to the surface. Currently the ULL almost stationary and if it doesn't hurry up it may actualy miss the trough. Overall we're obviously looking at a weakening ULL.

Hyperstorm · #48 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:55 am

The upper-level low has weakened significantly over the past 24-48 hours but the environment is expected to remain rather hostile over the next several days with upper-level westerlies across the entire Western Atlantic Basin from Florida eastward. This will prevent development of this system as it takes a route towards Florida. It doesn't matter its persistance at this time because that is being aided by the dissipating upper-level low. Wait 24 hours for the ULL to dissipate and we'll be left with a weak tropical wave moving west.

Less than 1% of it doing something and really that number is closer to 0 than 1...

#49 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 8:05 am

The flareup of convection coincided precisely with tropical wave entering the area. Forecast yesterday from NWS/SJU was so dead-on, it just doesn't get any better! Wave now over PR and they are having flash floods where rain has been pounding eastern mountains for several hours.

Looks like the trough itself is has enlongated to n/w, with s/e end still very near PR.

Great lightning display last night from the huge thunderstorm cells over the Atlantic to our north!

#50 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 11:04 am

bvigal wrote:The flareup of convection coincided precisely with tropical wave entering the area. Forecast yesterday from NWS/SJU was so dead-on, it just doesn't get any better! Wave now over PR and they are having flash floods where rain has been pounding eastern mountains for several hours.

Looks like the trough itself is has enlongated to n/w, with s/e end still very near PR.

Great lightning display last night from the huge thunderstorm cells over the Atlantic to our north!

I looked at it this morning and thought the same about the trough. I looked at it just now and I do beleave that it will be left behind. But I don't think we will get much out of it. I'll see what it is doing later on thie evening. :bday:

#51 Postby **hiflyer** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 11:53 am

Ok who woke up the local mets down here in SE Fla??..just saw channel 10 noon news and they are all over this thing!! The infamous big arrows pointing at us and over us in the graphics no less...grin.

Seriously...think there may be weather here in a couple of days off of it but don't see it tracking this far south...especially if the spin off TPA evolves on the west side with the Bermuda High on the east...

but then I've been wrong before... :lol:

x-y-no · #52 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:29 pm

hiflyer wrote:Ok who woke up the local mets down here in SE Fla??..just saw channel 10 noon news and they are all over this thing!! The infamous big arrows pointing at us and over us in the graphics no less...grin.

Seriously...think there may be weather here in a couple of days off of it but don't see it tracking this far south...especially if the spin off TPA evolves on the west side with the Bermuda High on the east...

but then I've been wrong before...

Well, there's at least some model support for the idea. The WRF has a surface to mid-level low approaching south/central Florida in 48 to 60 hours then tracking northwards along the coast towards Georgia.

The forecast upper level pattern doesn't look good at all for any significant development, but it is interesting that at least this model brings the circulation down to the surface.

#53 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:30 pm

It's gotta develope into something cause Accwx says it won't. LOL j/k

Today's Discussion
Tropical Wave Causing Heavy Rain Over Puerto Rico
Posted: 10-JUL-2006 11:44am EDT

By AccuWeather.com senior meteorologist Tom Kines

A tropical wave is causing a few heavy showers and thunderstorms from the northeast Caribbean to the eastern Dominican Republic and northward into the Bahamas, prompting flood watches and warnings for parts of Puerto Rico. These thunderstorms have been ongoing for the past 24 hours, but tropical development is unlikely over the coming days due to wind shear and stronger-than-average surface pressures in their path. This disturbance should reach Florida by Wednesday, causing an increase in thunderstorm activity.

#54 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 1:41 pm

Nice convection still going from last night se of the weakening ULL. Probably more associated with the tropical wave

#55 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:59 pm

Actually GFS spins up a little something looking at the 850 mb vorticity. Nothing closed but, hopefully we'll get some rain. I really like to get some of those big thunderboomers I used to see when I first moved here.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

As does CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

And NOGAPS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

UKMET even gives us a surface trough...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

#56 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 9:54 pm

The NAM is still spinning something up from the southern bahamas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

#57 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 10:10 pm

With lower windshear for the next 3-4 days anything is a possiblity.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

boca · #58 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 10:41 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/sats.php?loc=crb&sat=clir&h=5

Blow up in SE Bahamas.

#59 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 10:43 pm

boca wrote:http://www.storm2k.org/sats.php?loc=crb&sat=clir&h=5

Blow up in SE Bahamas.

I figured the wave would flare up in the overnight hours.

Boca... check out the ULL moving a lot faster to the north with the trough.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

boca · #60 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 11:07 pm

I'm going to wake up tomorrow morning and see a blow up in the Bahamas as well as 96L.

Area north of PR looks more organized

Who is online