TD2 Forecast #1

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 11:31 am

Sorry about the delay in posting, this was actually written earlier this morning.

I don't see this becoming Bill.

http://www.independentwx.com/Archives/T ... cast1.html

southerngale · #2 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 11:48 am

Is there no chance that td2 could slide under all that shear? It looks to me like if it stays on a westward track, it could possibly miss the shear and actually be in an area without much shear at all. I realize this is not the projected path, but it wasn't expected to develop in the first place. I guess with the shape of this system, most of the convection would be in the shear even if the center just misses it.

Am I making sense?

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 12:13 pm

You are correct, the shear IS weaker further south. However, it is not weak enough to allow for strengthening. Plus, the strong zone of shear above it is so close it would have an affect anyways. In fact if you look on water vapor imagery, you can see how the shear to the north is already chewing on TD2, even though technically its center is in an area of low shear. If this were to move due west over the next 2 days, it *might* have a better chance of surviving longer than I forecasted (still shouldn't strengthen any). But even then, that would take it too close to South America and/or TUTT-induced shear in the eastern Caribbean. So basically, any path this TD takes will likely lead it to death.

Hope I made some sense somewhere in there.

Stormsfury · #4 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 12:16 pm

It does, SC ...

Basically, wind shear, climatology, and dry air entrusion are about to do in TD #2 ...

Guest · #5 Postby **Guest** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 12:20 pm

Can we say BYE BYE TD2!!!

OtherHD · #6 Postby **OtherHD** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 12:26 pm

NO ticka, we must think POSITIVE...or wishcast...anything! I refuse to accept that TD2 is dead!! :grr:

Guest · #7 Postby **Guest** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 12:27 pm

southerngale · #8 Postby **southerngale** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 12:39 pm

Any Bon Jovi fans here?

Never say goodbye, never say goodbye
You and me and my old friends
Hoping it would never end
Never say goodbye, never say goodbye
Holdin' on - we got to try
Holdin' on to never say goodbye

Lindaloo · #9 Postby **Lindaloo** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 1:55 pm

Even though this one may be dying, rest assured there will be plenty more to follow.

Guest · #10 Postby **Guest** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 1:58 pm

I agree totally Lindaloo. Words of wisdom. This season is going to be busy and long.

Patricia

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 2:30 pm

Looks like it could die even sooner than I forecasted. If it doesn't improve in organization any overnight, we'll be kissing it goodbye come tomorrow. And I rest my case, no Bill.

Oh well, easy come easy go.

JCT777 · #12 Postby **JCT777** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 2:46 pm

southerngale wrote:Any Bon Jovi fans here?

Never say goodbye, never say goodbye
You and me and my old friends
Hoping it would never end
Never say goodbye, never say goodbye
Holdin' on - we got to try
Holdin' on to never say goodbye

Great song! 8-)

And I won't say goodbye until there is nothing left of TD 2. I recall a storm named Kyle last year that seemed to be on the verge of death about 5 different times, but kept coming back. So you never know....

ColdFront77 · #13 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Jun 11, 2003 3:50 pm

The wind shear has been decreasing near the Leeward and Windward Islands of the eastern Caribbean... if the area a bit to the east starts to lessen, Tropical Depression #2 may have more of a chance than it apparently appears.

The system isn't exactly in an area where the shear is on the true increase.

By no means am I saying this is going to develop. I am taking part in the discussion... we all have our own way of wording/how we view issues, including tropical weather issues.

TD2 Forecast #1

TD2 Forecast #1

Who is online