TD#2 beating the odds

[cycloneye]

Well data in recent weeks has showed that the MJO factor would not be condusive to developments until mid to late july but TD#2 has beaten those odds.And also climotology as we know is not favorable in that part of the atlantic this early in the season but again it beated those odds too.

Although this system wont be of more duration than a day or two IF it survives that long it has made history again this season same as Ana in april as the other piece of history so far.


Stormsfury what new event making history or making new records this season will have instore for us this 2003 one?

[Stormsfury]

Aside from already the countless other broken records and the firsts already occurring this year ... all bets, well, are off ... There's no one analog that I can base anything on ... 2003 is continuing to write weather history ... including TD #2 ... which is the furthest east CV depression for so early in the season ...

The CV area seems to be already sending us a message for 2003 ... and remember in 1996 when Bertha formed on July 5th, 1996 ... though, I'm not suggesting this will happen this early again this year ... especially with the anticipated unfavorable MJO phase ... this is 2003 ...

In the near term, only the GGEM (Canadian model seems to suggest a hint of a develop in the Western Caribbean in a few days) ... otherwise, all is quiet ...

[Anonymous]

Well some had said in recent weeks that the MJO factor would not be condusive to developments until mid to late july but TD#2 has beaten those odds.

Okay I know you're talking about TWW and I there lol. Actually, we are still in a favorable MJO right now. It will be moving out of the Atlantic very soon. When I said no Bill for another 35 days (still think that btw), I was just assuming we wouldn't see any development for the last few days of the current favorable MJO. But noooooo...2003 had to go and pull another cheap record on us.

I do think this is a sign of a rather rowdy Cape Verde season. Our next eastern Atlantic storm (or Bill for that matter) shouldn't come until late July or August due to MJO, but even though it may be a while, there will be plenty CV systems to come this season.

[cycloneye]

Agree 100% Rob about the CV season being a rough one if this TD is showing us the trend from now on and especially in august and september.

I think I will have plenty of watching to look for to my east this season to see what is comming to the caribbean from the east atlantic. :o :o

[deb_in_nc]

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Debbie