gatorcane wrote:Ixolib wrote:mountainspring wrote:Yes, it's true that if a massive hurricane hit the Tampa Bay area, it would be devasting. But the question is, what is the likelihood of this happening? I recall reading an article last summer that said it's actually not that likely that Tampa would be hit full bore by a CAT-3 or higher because of the curve it would have to make, and that Tampa is somewhat protected by its position. That doesn't mean it can't happen or won't happen, but it's less likely to.
I actually have no idea how likely it is, but considering I live 4 houses from the bay in the Tampa area, I sure hope it won't happen anytime soon.We are ready to evacuate, and quickly. We've got all of our papers together, we have hurricane bags packed, we have lists of hotels 30 miles inland that accept two large dogs, we have a doggy hurricane box ready complete with food .... So we are prepared at least physically, but I don't know about mentally.
Another 100 miles, and Charley might have been the one to dispel the notion of immaculate protection. But even Charley might not have brought the epic surge that is so feared because of his approach up the coastline, short-lived major status, and limited size, wind fetch, and duration.
As for being "mentally" prepared - you might as well forget that one!! But one out of two ain't bad...
Charley would have actually been weaker had it moved through Tampa Bay instead of 100 miles south over Port Charlotte. The reason is two-fold:
1) the shear was higher 100 miles north due to the approaching trough
2) Charley would have been undergoing an eye replacement cycle
Nonetheless, it certainly would have brought a decent storm surge to the area but the animation is for a CAT 4 and I am assuming it is considering a hurricane that is larger than Charley.
dude what if that trough would of been 100 miles further north Tampa Bay would of got slamed