NW Pacific: Tropical Storm Ewiniar (0603)

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WindRunner
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#181 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jul 10, 2006 6:01 pm

Well, it's into the Sea of Japan, and it's somehow still tropical and still a storm, but it should transition any second here . . .

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 38.7N 128.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 43.7N 137.3E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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#182 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 10, 2006 6:38 pm

WindRunner wrote:Well, it's into the Sea of Japan, and it's somehow still tropical and still a storm, but it should transition any second here . . .

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 38.7N 128.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 43.7N 137.3E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


How do they know what percentage of the storm is extratropical and what percentage is tropical? First time I see this!!!
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#183 Postby P.K. » Mon Jul 10, 2006 6:46 pm

It means there is a 70% chance the centre will be within 100NM of the given coordinates at that point, ie the circle on the forecast track.
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#184 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:00 pm

Sorry, then it's a non-tropical system already but they are still issuing advisories.
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#185 Postby P.K. » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:22 pm

That still says it is a TS. The extratropical classification first appears on there for the 24 hour forecast.
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#186 Postby WindRunner » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:56 pm

If it helps any, and for any others that might be having problems with this:

24HF 112100UTC 43.7N 137.3E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

In 24 hours (on the 11th at 2100Z) the forecast position is 43.7N, 137.3E, and there is a 70% chance that the storms center will be within 100nm of that point. (The percentage will always be 70, and the distance will change depending on how far in the future the forecast is for) And, of course, it will have weakened to a low and made an ET transition.
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#187 Postby P.K. » Mon Jul 10, 2006 7:57 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0603 EWINIAR (0603)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 40.2N 131.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 44.2N 139.4E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =
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