Tropical Depression Carlotta (04E) in EPAC

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102201
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT MON JUL 10 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Will this be Carlotta or Bud depending on which system develops first between 99E and 90E?

[HURAKAN]

It will be a nice awakening after a long drought!!!

[CrazyC83]

Looks like FINALLY the EPac season is heating up...I'd give this a 70% chance of developing into Bud or Carlotta.

[CrazyC83]

If TD3-E and 4-E are named at the exact same advisory, 99E gets 3-E and 90E gets 4-E, correct?

[AnnularCane]

I just knew that gorgeous wave had to be the next invest.

[cycloneye]

10/2345 UTC 11.3N 96.1W T1.0/1.0 90E -- East Pacific Ocean

[bombarderoazul]

99E should be a depression very soon, it looks like a depression already.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

99E is a depression maybe a tropical storm by the quickscat wind data.

[clfenwi]

This is the system that the GFS has been (and continues to be) very bullish on. Also, all of the models analyzed the low in their 12Z runs this morning, which had me expecting to see an invest on this...

Here's the comments in the 04Z TWD:

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N97W...ABOUT 250 NM S OF PUERTO
ANGEL MEXICO...MOVING W 5-10 KT AND IS COLLOCATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE S OF 14N. THE LOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED AND BROAD
CIRCULATION WHICH MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED ALONG AN E/W AXIS
AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN COMPOSED OF MANY SMALL TSTM CELLS
THAT ARE NOT COLLECTIVELY VERY ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
GOOD OVER THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE...AND
THE CIRCULATION IS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 93W-105W.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As for the question that started this thread... I think this will become Hurricane Carlotta.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't hope it makes landfall like Kenna but I would it bombs like him, Or maybe a linda!!!

[senorpepr]

Wow... a simple invest is already being compared to a major hurricane...

[clfenwi]

First, here's the GFS output I was referring to... linked is the 120h forecast from this evening's 00Z run...



Second... the UKMET model output

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :

10.7N 98.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 11.07.2006 10.7N 98.9W WEAK

12UTC 11.07.2006 11.1N 100.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 12.07.2006 11.6N 101.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.07.2006 12.4N 104.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.07.2006 13.6N 106.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.07.2006 15.1N 108.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 14.07.2006 16.1N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 14.07.2006 16.8N 112.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 15.07.2006 16.6N 112.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 15.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[CrazyC83]

I think by the end of the day, we will have at lest TD4-E on our hands.

[clfenwi]

Position estimate from this morning:
11/1145 UTC 12.3N 98.8W T1.0/1.0 90E

Comments from the 16Z TWD


A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N98W...ABOUT 250 NM S OF THE
MEXICO COAST. THE LOW IS MOVING W 5-10 KT AND IS COLLOCATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS NORTH OF 5N ALONG 98W. THE
BROAD CIRCULATION IS NOT WELL DEFINED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 14.7N100W AND
THIS CONVECTION IS MOVING WEST AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THIS IS NOT
CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE
SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HRS.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Looking at the visible loop, still looks to be in an unorganized stage...don't think we'll get TD4 out of this in the next 12 hours...but rather after that...

[Thunder44]

It's large but it looks to me to be developing now and closer to the Mexican coast too. I think we will see another TS by tomorrow here as long as it remains offshore.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 111644
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM BUD...LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE
THAT THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BUD ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ23 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP3.

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ROTH



HPC is doing the TWO and the advisories on Bud.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/avn-l.jpg

Looks pretty good today, possibly Carlotta in the next few days.

[Cyclenall]

My feeling is this will become a Tropical Depression tomorrow afternoon or morning.

I think by the end of the day, we will have at lest TD4-E on our hands.

I sure hope so.

[cycloneye]

11/1745 UTC 13.2N 101.7W T1.5/1.5 90E -- East Pacific Ocean

[x-y-no]

This thing is starting to look quite good ... and it's a lot broader area of convection than with TS Bud.

I think this'll be Carlotta by late tomorrow.