Tropical Depression Bud (03E) in EPAC

[senorpepr]

Senorpepr, it's been a long time since I've seen you around. Have you been away, or just not posting in this particular Forum?

In May and early June I was attending a class.
In late June until just recently, I was vacationing in the Philippines.

[clfenwi]

UKMET model guidance

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 110.6W

ACDF IDENTIFIER EP032006



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 11.07.2006 13.0N 110.6W WEAK

12UTC 11.07.2006 14.7N 112.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 12.07.2006 15.3N 115.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.07.2006 15.4N 117.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.07.2006 17.1N 118.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 13.07.2006 17.4N 122.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 14.07.2006 17.5N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 14.07.2006 18.1N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 15.07.2006 18.2N 128.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.07.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[clfenwi]

11/0600 UTC 13.8N 111.0W T2.0/2.0 03E -- East Pacific Ocean

TPPZ1 KGWC 110628
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E
B. 11/0531Z
C. 12.6N/9
D. 110.9W/1
E. SIX/GOES11
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS (11/0531Z)
G. IR/EIR

70/PBO ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .30 ON THE
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. FT
BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

AODT: N/A.

SCHAEFER/LAING

[Cyclenall]

This TC is looking very good right now. Bud is coming...

[whereverwx]

It seems to be organizing nicely... the system is on the right, I assume.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The quickscats and the blow up of deep convection makes it almost no quastion that this is a 35 to 40 knot tropical storm. While yes the LLC is exposed a little to the north. I'v seen many a system like this with tropical storm force winds. Alberto just being the latest.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The shear appears to be weaking over our system,,,With a band to the north firing up convection. With the deep convection starting to slide over the center. I say 45 knots based on both quickscats and improvement in organizion. 2.0 is way to low.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I rest my case. We got tropical storm Bud.

[P.K.]

NRL now says we have TS Bud. (35kts, 1005hPa)

[P.K.]

TROPICAL STORM BUD ICAO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
0900 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006

TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20060711/0900Z
TCAC: KNHC
TC: BUD
NR: 002
PSN: N1342 W11118
MOV: WNW 07KT
C: 1005HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN + 12 HR: 111800 N1412 W11218
FCST MAX WIND + 12 HR: 040KT
FCST PSN + 18 HR: 120000 N1430 W11300
FCST MAX WIND + 18 HR: 045KT
FCST PSN + 24 HR: 120600 N1448 W11342
FCST MAX WIND + 24 HR: 045KT
NXT MSG: 20060711/1500Z

[HURAKAN]

11/1200 UTC 13.8N 112.3W T2.5/2.5 BUD -- East Pacific Ocean

[Cyclenall]

Why is no one posting in this topic. Everyone posts when he is a Invest and the less people post when he becomes and Depression and no that he is a TS, no one is posting.

I said Bud was coming and he came alright. I'm looking at him right now, and he is looking scary good for a 35-Knot TS. He looks like Alberto when he almost became a hurricane...

Chances of Tropical Storm Bud becoming a:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 55%
Major Hurricane: 15%
Category 5 Hurricane: 1.5%

In my opinion only. Now, they are all rised based on what I have seen so far. Also, he became a TS on the 2nd advisorie so that means he is doing good so far.

As I was writing this post, the 3rd advisorie just came out and I disagree with some of it. They say that Bud is in a sheared enviroment just because he is looks crazy good (classic brusting type pattern)? What are they talking about, that doesn't make any sense! He doesn't look sheared very much if at all. Another thing, they kept Bud at 35-Knots. He looks like a weak hurricane right now. He looks better then most 60-knot TS's and that includes Alberto. And finally, they lowered his forcast strength downward which I don't know why since Bud isn't having a hard time currently.

[CrazyC83]

I agree. I smell a hurricane brewing here.

My estimates on becoming a:

Hurricane - 70%
Major Hurricane - 30%
Category 4 Hurricane - 10%
Category 5 Hurricane - 2%

[AnnularCane]

I may need to see more visible shots of him, but he sure looks good to me! Maybe they know something I don't. Actually they did mention light shear, but that it is forecast to weaken. In any case, he looks like he is handling any adversities just fine.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Here is what I think will happen to Bud in the next five days:

Current - 13.9/112.6 - 1005mb - 40mph
12 hrs - 14.1/114.0 - 1002mb - 50mph
24 hrs - 14.6/115.5 - 995mb - 65mph
36 hrs - 15.1/117.1 - 986mb - 75mph
48 hrs - 15.6/118.9 - 978mb - 90mph
60 hrs - 16.2/120.6 - 975mb - 100mph
72 hrs - 16.7/122.3 - 980mb - 85mph
96 hrs - 17.4/126.1 - 989mb - 65mph
120 hrs - 17.5/130.0 - 995mb - 45mph

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT BUD IS EXHIBITING A
CLASSIC BURSTING TYPE PATTERN...OFTEN SYMPTOMATIC OF A SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB HAVE COME IN
AT T2.5...35 KTS...SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN MADE ON THIS
PACKAGE. THE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM 12Z WERE CLOSER THAN SEEN
PREVIOUSLY...AND SUGGESTS A WESTERLY ADJUSTMENT FROM SIX HOURS AGO.
THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE AMBIGUITY IN THE 06Z CENTER POSITION
AND IS NOT INTERPRETED AS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. THE RECENT
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285...WEST-NORTHWEST...AT 8 KTS.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NORTH OF BUD FEATURES AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE
COAST OF SOUTHWEST CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
NORTH AMERICA WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXPAND FARTHER WESTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. THE DEPICTION OF THE
CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE UKMET...IS
COMPLICATED BY INTERACTIONS WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AND SHALLOW ONE
TO ITS WEST IN THE ITCZ. THE SMALL WESTERN CIRCULATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT BUD MUCH AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THE
LARGER/DOMINANT CIRCULATION...SO LITTLE WEIGHT IS GIVEN TO THE
UKMET AND CONU FORECASTS. THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
ACAPULCO IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR IN BUDS TRACK
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO GIVING THE
DISTURBANCE MORE WEIGHT IN THE TRACK FORECAST WOULD SLOW DOWN BUD
MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IT ENTERS COOLER WATERS BECOMING STEERED
INCREASINGLY BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE. THE CURRENT
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NORTHEAST OF BUD IS PRODUCING WEAK
NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH APPARENTLY IS RETARDING ITS
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. EVEN THOUGH MODELS DO NOT INITIALIZE THIS
SMALL SCALE FEATURE WELL...OR AT ALL...IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME
LESS INFLUENTIAL WITH TIME. THIS IS OBSERVED IN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
WHICH SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO MORE FAVORABLE
LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO INDICATES THAT THE 200MB
TEMP WILL BECOME WARMER WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC
COMPONENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LACKING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE. THIS ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT BUD
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HRS SHOULD
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 13.9N 112.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 14.3N 113.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 14.8N 115.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 15.5N 117.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 16.0N 119.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 16.9N 122.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 17.2N 126.2W 35 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 129.8W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROTH/KIMBERLAIN


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WTPZ23 KNHC 111449
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1500 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 112.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 10NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 112.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.3N 113.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 115.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.5N 117.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.0N 119.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 65NE 65SE 55SW 55NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.9N 122.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 17.2N 126.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 129.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 112.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROTH/KIMBERLAIN



I didn't saw the 8 AM PDT advisory posted so here it is.

[whereverwx]

It looks like a pea on the AVN; other than that, it looks like it's continuing to organize.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn

This looks damn good!

[clfenwi]

First thing I looked at on the computer this morning was the EPAC satellite loop, and just from looking at that I knew we had Bud.

Long time coming...45 days since we had Aletta, third longest gap between the first and second named storms in the books. In the other such seasons, the third storm came within ten days of the formation of the second.

Here's a nice shot of Bud from earlier today...

[AnnularCane]

He is just gorgeous. Hard to believe he's still just a baby.