96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[Thunder44]

Still a wave and still moving west. Just because it has no convection does not mean it's poof. The wave is still there....yes, it's only a wave. There are many of them every year. Why don't people realize this???

The wave itself doesn't really go poof, but the thunderstorms associated with it do go poof. If it doesn't have enough thunderstorms, it won't develop into anything at all.

[skysummit]

Still a wave and still moving west. Just because it has no convection does not mean it's poof. The wave is still there....yes, it's only a wave. There are many of them every year. Why don't people realize this???

The wave itself doesn't really go poof, but the thunderstorms associated with it do go poof. If it doesn't have enough thunderstorms, it won't develop into anything at all.

I know that, and yes the thunderstorms for the most part have gone poof, however, no development was expected anytime soon anyways. If the wave remains in tack, in which it still is, it could get to a much better environment down the road. You really can't say it won't develop into anything at all just because it looks terrible at this moment. Remember....ummm......oh yea, Katrina?

I can see, however, dropping the Invest for now though. I don't see why this should be an Invest since it's only a wave and not showing signs of development. They could always re-instate it to Invest level down the road if things change, but they're the pros.

[beachbum_al]

I don't remember seeing this posted so I will. If it has just delete it.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A
1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. NEITHER WAVE OR LOW ARES
WELL DEFINED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 49W-51W.

[Thunder44]

Still a wave and still moving west. Just because it has no convection does not mean it's poof. The wave is still there....yes, it's only a wave. There are many of them every year. Why don't people realize this???

The wave itself doesn't really go poof, but the thunderstorms associated with it do go poof. If it doesn't have enough thunderstorms, it won't develop into anything at all.

I know that, and yes the thunderstorms for the most part have gone poof, however, no development was expected anytime soon anyways. If the wave remains in tack, in which it still is, it could get to a much better environment down the road. You really can't say it won't develop into anything at all just because it looks terrible at this moment. Remember....ummm......oh yea, Katrina?

I can see, however, dropping the Invest for now though. I don't see why this should be an Invest since it's only a wave and not showing signs of development. They could always re-instate it to Invest level down the road if things change, but they're the pros.

I don't really disagree with this. Just trying make you understand why some are playing this thing down right now.

[skysummit]

I don't really disagree with this. Just trying make you understand why some are playing this thing down right now.

Ok...oh, I know why peolpe are playing it down. Just as I said last night, convection will decrease overnight and people will be saying poof again. As long as the NHC keeps that slight chance for it, I'll follow it.

[caribepr]

Still a wave and still moving west. Just because it has no convection does not mean it's poof. The wave is still there....yes, it's only a wave. There are many of them every year. Why don't people realize this???

Because some people are Hurricane Hungry? Because there are more people than ever here who just enjoy tracking stuff? Sort of reminds me of following a sports figure who seems the underdog but just might win the Olympics...
Some like to see every move and some like to just tune in for the Big Show! Does it really matter if no harm (excessive predictions, wild assertions, POOF insistance to the incredibly boring degree) is done?
For the first time, I've sort of enjoyed reading the tracking by those who are purely interested in what this wave has been doing. When it doesn't interest me...I don't read it and I sure don't need to comment on it. What a crazy concept
New bumper sticker from the Caribbean for the enlightenment of the world...We Got Waves, yah.

[kenl01]

Ah yes, the dog days of summer

It'll get better in August I'm sure...........

[stormchazer]

I can see, however, dropping the Invest for now though. I don't see why this should be an Invest since it's only a wave and not showing signs of development. They could always re-instate it to Invest level down the road if things change, but they're the pros.

I kind of wonder myself why the NHC is even slightly optimistic still this morning. Most of the convection has dissipated and there has been little model support. The only positive aspect is there is still turning along the wave axis. I am definitely a wave watching fool, but I am just a little curious why the NHC is still giving it chance for slow development and not giving the canned "development not expected". Maybe I am reading too much into the TWO.

[skysummit]

Wow...I can barely even make out the wave this morning on visible. I'm about to go with the "p" word myself!

[canegrl04]

I think I'll take a nap,now.Wake me when the next td forms

[gatorcane]

Alright folks time to break out the infamous bang - looks like this invest is history, another nice call by the NHC:

[wxman57]

Here's a new GARP image with visible satellite and surface plots. Simply a weak to moderate wave. Pressure along the wave axis looks to be 1015-1016mb now. Very little convection. Probably will track W-WNW and reach near the Yucatan by Sunday then move west into Mexico as a large ridge develops over the Gulf coast. Chances of development are very low.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb1.gif

Here's the mid level steering flow for Saturday afternoon (700mb-400mb streamlines):

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/meanflow.gif

As you can see, a westerly movement of the wave looks likely.

[cajungal]

It is not unusual to see no named systems for July at all. I think Bob Breck was showing his chart last night and it showed only 4 hurricanes ever hitting the US in July. Most of the time July is always quiet. 2005 was a big exception. 2004 started very slow. Then, boom in August-October, Florida was getting hit again and again. So, hurricane trackers hold on to your seats, and relax. August and September will be here before you know it and it will be busy!

[Opal storm]

I don't think we should be looking for any development in the eastern Atlantic until mid August.It's July and conditions aren't favorable for anything way out there.At this time of year I am more focused on the Gulf,western Carib and the Bahamas.

[CrazyC83]

It is not unusual to see no named systems for July at all. I think Bob Breck was showing his chart last night and it showed only 4 hurricanes ever hitting the US in July. Most of the time July is always quiet. 2005 was a big exception. 2004 started very slow. Then, boom in August-October, Florida was getting hit again and again. So, hurricane trackers hold on to your seats, and relax. August and September will be here before you know it and it will be busy!

Exactly! Even in 1995 (which had at least 19 tropical storms), the activity didn't heat up until the end of July. We were only up to Barry at this point, which could very well be where we are now (if the Carolinas storm in late June is declared an unnamed storm after the season ends).

[brunota2003]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111536
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY LIMITED...AND DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

even the NHC has lost interest in it...

[NONAME]

I think they Just are saying there is potential down the road for it, if it makes it passed the shear but right now it's not going to develop.

[cheezyWXguy]

nobody's noticed this, have they

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Thunder44]

nobody's noticed this, have they

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Are you talking about the cluster of t-storms to the south?

[canegrl04]

Hey ! That thing looks alittle more organized and convection is stronger