Little Bahama Mama in the Gulf

[drezee]

Looking at the morning visibles, you can see a hint of turning in the low levels with the convection in the S Bahamas. Nothing defined as of yet, but I would expect pressures are lowering due to the increased convergence. You can see the wind behind the convection moving in much faster then the winds on the other side. With the upper low to the N creating a mechanism for air evacuation we may have a player on the field.

Hi-Res Visible Loop

[Portastorm]

I was wondering when someone was going to pick up on this.

Good job drezee!

JB posted this morning that he is growing increasingly concerned about this area and will be writing more today on the potential threat to Florida and subsequently the Gulf. I'll leave the more detailed posting to my Lone Star colleague, Extremeweatherguy.

[boca]

Drezee nice pic but all I see is thunderstorms building and moving WNW but I see several of them. What area in that group of storms do you see this occuring.

[drezee]

Drezee nice pic but all I see is thunderstorms building and moving WNW but I see several of them. What area in that group of storms do you see this occuring.

Right in the middle of the visible loop I posted

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah we have been watching the models and for development in this thread for a couple of days now.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 2&start=60

4 of the models are indicating some type of vorticity in the southern bahamas in the next couple of days streaming into the east coast of florida. Especially the NAM but, it usually isn't that great in the tropics. I noticed that the convection associated with the wave died off last night somewhat after the ULL was pulling away. Just before I went to bed around midnight I noticed a reflaring of convection in the bahamas.

[boca]

I see that now drezee it took me a while thanks.

[drezee]

Yeah we have been watching the models and for development in this thread for a couple of days now.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 2&start=60

4 of the models are indicating some type of vorticity in the southern bahamas in the next couple of days streaming into the east coast of florida. Especially the NAM but, it usually isn't that great in the tropics. I noticed that the convection associated with the wave died off last night somewhat after the ULL was pulling away. Just before I went to bed around midnight I noticed a reflaring of convection in the bahamas.

When the Bermuda high builds back in the ULL north of Puerto Rico might become a player if it can work its way down to the surface. I know its a long shot but you never know.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

I thought that thread was started about the ULL working down to the surface. It did not, but the wave it tried to entrain made it through. The ULL has moved off to the N. I was referencing the wave.

[drezee]

Ok, I am not blowing the horn on a small area of convection, but the plot is thickening...pressures in the Bahamas are high, but the lowest pressure is near the low level turning...

Bahama Obs
http://www.wunderground.com/global/BS.html

Map of Bahamas for reference

http://www.webbahamas.com/The_Bahamas_- ... ama_1_.gif

So as I said, the plot thickens...maybe it is salt water instead of plain water...just wait til it hits "Syrup"

[boca]

So as I said, the polt thickens...maybe it is salt water instead of plain water...just wait til it hits "Syrup"

[boca]

Here's another view of the same area.

http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/global/ ... llite.html

[skysummit]

Great work drezee! Nice find. I wasn't paying attention to the area until you mentioned something

[Portastorm]

Judging from the obs and satellite, looks like the area of suspicion is just south-southwest of Georgetown, right?

[SouthFloridawx]

I thought that thread was started about the ULL working down to the surface. It did not, but the wave it tried to entrain made it through. The ULL has moved off to the N. I was referencing the wave.

The name of the thread was referencing that but, I think we were commenting on both the wave and the ULL. Last night I noted that the ULL was pulling more rapidly off to the north with the trough and probably the convection was due to the wave.

[boca]

Maybe this will become 97L.

[boca]

Pro mets what do you think about the Bahama Mama?

[jabber]

Pressures are still way up..... I will be 'more' interested when and if they start to fall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I was wondering when someone was going to pick up on this.

Good job drezee!

JB posted this morning that he is growing increasingly concerned about this area and will be writing more today on the potential threat to Florida and subsequently the Gulf. I'll leave the more detailed posting to my Lone Star colleague, Extremeweatherguy.

lol. There is not much more I can add right now. You have pretty much covered what he has said this morning. I am awaiting his detailed update for more info. Looks interesting for sure.

[boca]

testing

[drezee]

From JB: I want to take a look at the low level system ( eddy) that is in the southeastern Bahamas a bit more this afternoon as it has moved out from under the thunderstorms it set off last night.

[cpdaman]

as this moves more west norht west what is the forecast steering would the two ulls (one southwest of fl and the other northeast) make this thing go into south/ cent fl or would this "blob" watch be more of a keys event and then gulf

my amateur guess would be initial wnw-nw motion then more due west