Tropical Depression Bud (03E) in EPAC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes I just got out of bed...But I would bet a thousand dollars if I had it that this is way stronger then 35 knots. Now I'm going to look at satellite.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow a bizzsaw is forming nice outflow...With 70 minus convection forming right over the LLC. This sucker is at least 55 to 60 knots.


Wow a bizz saw is forming...LLC under 70 plus below convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

[Thunder44]

This looks like at least a 45kt storm looking at the latest visible and infrared images.

[clfenwi]

Think we'll see 3.0s on the next round of intensity estimates (at least from SAB and TAFB, KGWC went with 1.5 this morning), which is 45 knots. We'll find out SAB's and KGWC's estimates in a little while...

[clfenwi]

As expected, 3.0 from the Satellite Analysis Branch

11/1800 UTC 14.1N 112.6W T3.0/3.0 BUD -- East Pacific Ocean

[Epsilon_Fan]

its looking a bit better organized now, although with that cold water to the west, it can't last long

[Cyclenall]

Wow a bizzsaw is forming nice outflow...With 70 minus convection forming right over the LLC. This sucker is at least 55 to 60 knots.


Wow a bizz saw is forming...LLC under 70 plus below convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

That's what I thought, until the NHC gave their 3rd advisorie out and kept the strength at 35 Knots! I would have raised it to 50 knots based on how it looks on SAT only.

This looks like at least a 45kt storm looking at the latest visible and infrared images.

Yep, the NHC better not keep Bud at 35 Knots because that would be wrong. Everything points to a stronger storm then a 35-Knot one.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL at 18:00z has it at 45kts and 1000 mbs so at next advisory NHC will raise the winds.

[clfenwi]

TPPZ1 KGWC 111830
A. TROPICAL STORM 03E (BUD)
B. 11/1731Z
C. 13.4N/8
D. 112.7W/1
E. SIX/GOES11
F. T1.5/1.5/STT: S0.0/12HRS -(11/1731Z)
G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .30 ON THE
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. FT
BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

AODT: 1.5(UCCR)

PRATO/KAMINSK
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Difference in center placement probably accounts for the difference in intensity estimates... I think we'll see 45 knots as the intensity for the next advisory.

[cycloneye]

TPPZ1 KGWC 111830
A. TROPICAL STORM 03E (BUD)
B. 11/1731Z
C. 13.4N/8
D. 112.7W/1
E. SIX/GOES11
F. T1.5/1.5/STT: S0.0/12HRS -(11/1731Z)
G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVTN WRAPS .30 ON THE
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. FT
BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

AODT: 1.5(UCCR)

PRATO/KAMINSK
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Difference in center placement probably accounts for the difference in intensity estimates... I think we'll see 45 knots as the intensity for the next advisory.

Look at my post above yours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The center is under the central case...In this sucker looks more like 50 knots to me.

[clfenwi]

(snip)

Look at my post above yours.

Yeah, you posted it while I was writing my post Hadn't looked at the NRL site in a couple of hours...thanks for the tip!

[Cyclenall]

I just figured everything out just now. This Bud guy is waaaaay stronger then 35-Knots and the NHC was wrong on their last advisory possibly. Since the NHC is in back-up mode, the people writing the discussions are not the usual guys writing them. They may not know as much about tropical cyclones as people like Franklin, Avila, ect. Therefore, there may have been a mistake.

Forecaster Roth and Kimberlain wrote the last one. Are they good with TC's?

I just checked the latest SAT image and this thing is now looking around 60-65 Knots because it reminds me of Katrina when she was a CAT2 and rapidly strengthening. It looks so good right now. It's wrapping around or something like that. Something is happening...

New % chances for Bud:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 64%
Major Hurricane: 21%
Category 5 Hurricane: 2%

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah they are basing everything off the t numbers. It takes very little knowledge to base the winds off that...


The cdo has tighten up over the LLC over the last hour or so...With good to perfect inflow banding forming, and moving into the southern side...Also outflow looks good at all quads. Nice buzzsaw classic....

Shear appears to be light at this time...In the system should have about 36 hours of warm water to strengthen. A high pressure to the north should keep it moving westward or west-northwestward. A distrabance to the east has been adding southly flow...But the Bud is starting to pull away so a westly track should take plae.

Forecast winds are based on appearance and shear...Shear appears to be faverable at this time...With warm SST's. No 85h data has come in since this morning. So we can't see if any sign of a eye is starting to form...But there doe's apper to be a soild central core...Which would make it likely that this is at least 45 to 50 knots. A 5 to 10 knot strengthing per 6 hours should take place.

Wind forecast
0 50 knots
6 55 knots
12 60 knots
24 65 knots(Likely hurricane)
30 70 knots
36 55 knots
48 45 knots cooler water

Forecaster Matthew

[clfenwi]

WTPZ23 KNHC 112050
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
2100 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.9N 114.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 5NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.0N 117.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 65SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.6N 120.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 85NE 85SE 75SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.2N 123.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 127.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 130.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 113.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ROTH

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WTPZ43 KNHC 112049
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE
SHEAR/BURSTING PATTERN DESCRIBING BUDS DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS
MORNING HAS NOW TURNED INTO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED BANDING-TYPE
PATTERN. THE CENTER...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...IS NOW COMPLETELY SURROUNDED...THOUGH
BY WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A
PRIMITIVE BUT SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING AS WELL AS AN
EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD TO THE NORTH...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY
RESTRICTED. ALL SIGNS POINT TO A RATHER ABRUPT INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH SAB
AND TAFB BEAR THIS OUT...BOTH COMING IN AT T3.0...OR 45 KTS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INTENSITY
WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

OVERNIGHT AMBIGUITIES REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION ARE NO LONGER AS
MUCH OF AN ISSUE...GIVEN THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND. SMOOTHING
OUT PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES YIELDS A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 290 DEGREES...WEST-NORTHWEST...AT 9 KTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT A DEEP-LAYERED MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF BUD WILL
CONTINUE TO STEER IT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROF ALONG 150W WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCEMENT AND WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD KEEP BUD
ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE. ALL OF THIS ASSUMES THAT BUD REMAINS
FREE OF THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
ORGANIZING SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. SEVERAL PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TYPE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS. FOR NOW...THIS WILL REMAIN A LOWER PROBABILITY
ALTERNATE SCENARIO. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...A BLEND OF BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

WHATEVER NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WAS PRESENT OVER BUD UNTIL THIS
MORNING HAS APPARENTLY WEAKENED...AS EVIDENCED BY ITS IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND EXPANDING OUTFLOW. A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT COULD BE RELATED TO THE DISSIPATION OF A WEAK
MIDDLE TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC COLD LOW TO ITS NORTHEAST. WHILE THE
SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FURTHER REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR AND
A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...IT TOO SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE COMPETING WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT
BUD IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 60 HRS...SHOULD
LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SHOULD
BE WIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW BUD TO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH THAT SYSTEMS SUCH AS BUD ARE NOTORIOUS FOR
THEIR VOLATILE SWINGS IN INTENSITY. AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST PRESENTED HERE MAY HAVE LARGER-THAN-NORMAL ERRORS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 14.4N 113.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.9N 114.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 15.5N 116.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 16.0N 117.9W 70 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 16.6N 120.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 17.2N 123.9W 65 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 17.4N 127.1W 45 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 17.2N 130.6W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ROTH

[clfenwi]

Heh, the HPC forecasters caught got Matt on the conservative side

[AnnularCane]

Bud looks like a nautilus.

[Cyclenall]

Thank goodness, the NHC is finally correct! I agree with everything now unlike this morning where I thought they were wrong. They seem to have noticed what I have been seeing all day so far. Now I can be at peace knowing that the NHC has it "right on the dot".

I see something occurring with Bud right now that I think could be some sort of eye forming. It would be something else but I think it's a eye in it's early stages. I think it's strengthening very quickly as well. Just take a look.

My New % chances for Bud:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 78%
Major Hurricane: 28.5%
Category 5 Hurricane: 2.25%

[WindRunner]

Looks beautiful this afternoon, maybe even an eye-like feature forming on this vis.

[MiamiensisWx]

Based on the current structure and outflow/convective pattern, it looks like Bud may be VERY close to a hurricane, if not one already. The circulation patterns and QUICKSCAT patterns support this somewhat. Current intensity is likely around 60KT to 65KT.