matts tropical weather thinking

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thanks Georges it takes about a hour a day,,,


7-10-2006

A upper level low is at 25 north/84 west over the Gulf of Mexico. A weak surface trough is north of it over northern Florida. This ULL is enhancing shear over the southern Gulf of Mexico into the western Caribbean. Another ULL is at 25 north/73 west...Pulling slowly northwestward.

Strong upper level tutt over the eastern caribbean...Is developing strong southwestly shear over the southeastern Caribbean...A Anticyclone is over the eastern Pacific over a tropical distrabance at 96 west/12 north....

1019 millibar surface high is over the northern Gulf coast...Near 31 north/87.5 west...The western Atlatnic/Bermuda high is at 35 north/58 west...While the Azores high is at 35 west/38 north with 1030 millibars. A trough/shortwave is between the two highs near 50 west. Which has formed a weakness...

A tropical distrabance(Area of interest is at 11 north/46 west...More below...A tropical wave at 66 west is showing no signs of any development. The area of convection north of the islands(20 north/65 to 75 west)is being formed because of a ULL.

The trough is pushing southward into the Gulf of Mexico. With the jet stream screaming just off the east coast northeastward. A second shortwave is at 100 west moving southeastward...While a third is droping at 78 west/45 north. A strong weakness at is moving southward/southeastward at 45 to 55 west north of 35.

North of 22 over the gulf the air is much dryier. While the caribbean is soild dry...From 15 north from the leewards to the cape verde islands it bone dry...South of 15 the distrabance at 46 west has pulled in dry air west/east side.

At 200 millibars millibars you can clearly see the weakness at 40 to 45 west. With the Azores at 50 to 70 west. Which the distrabance at 46 west. Should be moving under it over the next 12 hours...It should turn westward from its current west-northwest course...Low level winds also pick up to the west...Which is not faverable for tropical cyclone development...So be going about 25 knots by the time its pass 60 west. You can also see the ULL over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

A flaten upper level Anticyclone below 10 north...From 55 to 45 west. Strong upper level southeastly shear is over the eastern Caribbean of 40 knots. The caribbean is very unfaverbale. The Anticyclone based on 3 hour shear charts, seems to be making the enviroment ahead of this distrabance more faverable. With 20+ decreases at 50 to 55 west.

The 18z Gfs shows the weakness at 40/45 west...Inbetween the two highs. Also shows the weak southern gulf states high...It weakens this weakness then moves it westward. The Gfs pulls a weakness/trough out over the western Atlatnic by 72 to 84 hours. This makes the high centered at 30 west very thin...But still strong enough to hold all distrabances south of it...

The 200 millibar still shows the Anticycline forming over the southern Part of the distrabance. But strong upper level shear should make anything north of 15 north impossible...At 200 millibars the tutt is right on top of our distrabance at 72 hours at 60 to 65 west...Which makes very strong shear...

If this turns out true then you can forget development...

The Cmc moves this distrabance into the western Caribbean at 90 hours. Which it enhances it...Strengthens it...Then 120 to 136 hours it moves it into the Gulf. In which it closes off a low prssure area. It also forecasts alot strogner surface high to the north of it...So we will see...Very long ways off...

The cmc today holds a stronger Anticyclone over the distrabance. Which gives it more of a chance. But still the tutt is ever lasting north of 20 north/60 to 70 west.


1# Invest 96L at 11 north/46 west. It has developed a small area of convection...But dry air appears to have gotten into it...With strong southeastly shear....But still the Anticyclone is trying to protect it...I think the chances for development are low for the next 24 to 36 hours. If the gfs has its way its over...IF the Cmc has its way we will need to watch it...The quickscats show no signs of a surface circ.

Have a good day!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

7-11-2006
Very short for today...


Yeah its eastly winds all the way through with the ULL over the southeastern Gulf. Which the east winds blowing to about 75 west then the upper level southwestly winds blowing making a converging zone. But still interesting I would watch for a weak spin up. Still eastly by the obs. So chances for development looks very low...

But this moisture should pull into Florida over the next 24 to 36 hours..The high to the north looks to be strong enough to hold it to the west-northwest flow...While the ULL Is pulling out...We have a trough moving southwestward over the area at 30 north/60 west...Which should enhance wind shear over the eastern Caribbean...Which should kill any chance for 96L. Another failed system as far I can see...

The dry air over the central Atlatnic is holding in strong. With a strong SAL...A wave over the eastern Atlatnic a few models are hinting at a low pressure to develop. In really the models are really hyping it right now at around 30 to 35 west. We will have to see.

A strong Azores high remains north of it...Which should force it westward for the next 36 hours...So maybe this area is more developable then the last one...

The trough still remains over the east coast...With a ULL over the southeast gulf of Mexico...Surface high over the southeastern United states.

A distrabance over the eastern pacific just off Mexico...Is showing some signs of development...With a 1.5 t number as of last update. Expect a upgrade with in 12 hours.

Tropical storm Bud is strengthen...In could become a hurricane with in 30 hours...As it moves westward...


This is just a out line...I will have a better discussion later.

Have a good day...

[decgirl66]

The term "SAL" is overused by amature weather watchers like the term "farewell tour" is for Cher's career.

I had to respond to this, even though it was posted almost a month ago. There are a LOT of amateur weather watchers on this board. If you don't like something that is being said in a thread, I just don't feel it is necessary to make comments like that. (Especially being a moderator). If I took this comment the wrong way, I apologize in advance...

[Derek Ortt]

I agree with senorpepr's statement

The SAL is only one source of dry air. Another common source for the tropical Atlantic, and one of the reasons that shut down the CV season, was from the Azores high

The SAL is not the only source of dry air, which is hopw I took Senorpepr's post

[Jevo]

The term "SAL" is overused by amature weather watchers like the term "farewell tour" is for Cher's career.

I had to respond to this, even though it was posted almost a month ago. There are a LOT of amateur weather watchers on this board. If you don't like something that is being said in a thread, I just don't feel it is necessary to make comments like that. (Especially being a moderator). If I took this comment the wrong way, I apologize in advance...

Mike (pepr) has forgotten more about meteorology than you will ever know... obviously it was a joke

[decgirl66]

Like I said, I may have taken it wrong! I am sorry...I have PMS (nuff said) and it just rubbed me the wrong way! Please forgive me!

[Jevo]

Like I said, I may have taken it wrong! I am sorry...I have PMS (nuff said) and it just rubbed me the wrong way! Please forgive me!

No need to apologize... i just havnt had a chance to use that line in a long time.... hope you feel better

[vacanechaser]

7-11-2006


The dry air over the central Atlatnic is holding in strong. With a strong SAL...

strong sal???? look at this image...http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html

that area of dry air in the central and eastern atlantic is large, but not strong.... if you look at the color key at the bottom, you will see that most of that area is weak to moderate at best.... it is stronger off the coast of california.... plus, not all the dry air is SAL... yes there are times that you can get a lot of sand and dust, but this looks to me to be more of a product of the Azores high than anything...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HurricaneHunter914]

Remember Matt isn't a Pro-Met so cut him some slack.

[Dustin]

Come on dude, matt does great analysis' and is not a pro. Lay off dude.

[vacanechaser]

Come on dude, matt does great analysis' and is not a pro. Lay off dude.

i know he is not... neither am i.... but in other threads on this board in recent days, the term sal was being used way to much and many of the pros agree.... not all dry air in the atlantic is sal... i was just pointing that out and the fact that it is not, "strong" as he said to people who may not understand.. we have new people here all the time and many are new to tropical meteorology... i simply stated the facts.. thats all... no slam at him... the sal debate starts this time every year and that the season is a bust, or is slow or whatever, before we get into the heart of the season...

i dont see anything in the post that is offensive or attacking him... so you lay off a bit...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its not all sal but on the southern side of the Azores high it has a eastly flow...In which pulls Africa dust into the eastern Atlatnic. Yes not all of it is dust but as you say the air sinks on that side of the high pressure area.

Also the Azores high is pretty strong/south right now which is pulling even more of this air out into the Atlatnic. Also since its a area of high pressure you got sinking also.

[SouthFloridawx]

If you want to get a good look at the dust in the air I prefer looking at this link.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rucol.html