96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

[HurricaneHunter914]

Like I said,"Jam, is a TROLL!"

[Jam151]

Well i don't want to talk bad about the NHC but this is just too much. I beg all of you to look at this disterbence and then look at the one in the epac, you will see the difference.

Ok..you are comparing a strong tropical storm to a tropical wave... Obviously the tropical storm will look really much better than the wave.

The NHC states that the wave is better organize because of what WindRunner said. It has developed a LLC which can be clearly seen in latest visible loop.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111648
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
10 AM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM BUD...LOCATED ABOUT 645 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE
THAT THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

Just wanted to clarify the east pac Disbence. And yall are right about one thing i won't mention this mass of clouds again, i'm done with it. I don't know what yall are seeing but i can't see so i guess we will just see what happens.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Small burst of convection on SAT. I think this thing is not gone yet.

[rockyman]

My ultimate wish for this year's board is that the eye-rolling emoticon be banished...It is obnoxious, arrogant, and impolite...as are the people who use it....If I could figure out a way of automatically ignoring all posts that contain the eyeroll, I think I'd waste a lot less time wading through these threads.

[NONAME]

[quote="Jam151"]Stewart must have lost his freaking mind. Their is nothing there, how can we take them seriously when the peak actually gets here when stewart does stuff like this. INSANE! [/quo

If you look at the visible it shows the the low level sturcture has gotten better organized therefore it has gotten more organize.

[drezee]

My opinion is a bit different than most on this system. I find it hard to believe that this system will not develop. The low level structure has improved remarkable since yesterday at this time...in spite of the lack of convection. If we can get any I mean any sustained convection this will become a Classified Tropical Cyclone. Unlike 93L which had very small LLCs with little influence, this system has a average envelope. The upper ridge is starting to catch up with it...if only for a time. If it is going to go at all...It should blow its top tonight.

I see that the NHC agrees with my point of it becoming better organized today...

THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Hey I use the roll emoticon, along with some of the other Mets, mods, and admins, on this board.

[Rainband]

Stewart must have lost his freaking mind. Their is nothing there, how can we take them seriously when the peak actually gets here when stewart does stuff like this. INSANE!

Read the rules BASHING the NHC s NOT ALLOWED

[drezee]

302
WHXX01 KWBC 112050
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060711 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060711 1800 060712 0600 060712 1800 060713 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.5N 53.0W 13.1N 54.9W 13.6N 56.8W 14.1N 58.5W
BAMM 12.5N 53.0W 13.3N 55.6W 14.1N 58.1W 14.8N 60.6W
A98E 12.5N 53.0W 13.0N 56.2W 13.6N 59.1W 14.3N 61.6W
LBAR 12.5N 53.0W 13.0N 55.8W 13.8N 58.8W 14.5N 61.7W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 23KTS 23KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 23KTS 23KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060713 1800 060714 1800 060715 1800 060716 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 60.4W 16.2N 64.2W 17.8N 67.5W 18.4N 71.2W
BAMM 15.5N 63.2W 17.3N 68.6W 18.7N 73.8W 19.1N 78.8W
A98E 15.0N 63.8W 16.9N 67.7W 18.6N 71.6W 19.3N 76.1W
LBAR 15.5N 64.7W 17.8N 70.1W 20.7N 74.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 22KTS 22KTS 26KTS 33KTS
DSHP 22KTS 22KTS 26KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 53.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 49.8W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 46.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[drezee]

[rockyman]

Maybe I should clarify my statement...the POSTS that contain the eyeroll are obnoxious, arrogant and impolite...the Posters might just be having a bad day...but I do not think it is EVER polite to roll your eyes at someone...it's just bad manners...of course, I'm also showing bad manners by pointing out the bad manners of others...Good manners requires that I just shut up and ignore the eye rolls

[skysummit]

Wow...and the models start up again!

[Thunder44]

yup...it has outflow, possibly another devloping MLL??

By the way, I don't this think has a chance to develop. It's just thunderstorms associated with the ITCZ and will probably run into South America or dissapate before even getting there.

Are you looking at the right area? There's no way it can run into South America. It's already well north of that latitude.

I was talking about the area further to the SE of the wave.

[rockyman]

Thanks, drezee! I almost forgot about the models...were these just released? If so (since they would be about 4 hours late), this could show a renewed interest in 96L by the powers that be

[HurricaneHunter914]

If this had an LLC a little while back then this would have been TD #2 already.

[drezee]

They were just released...

[Ivanhater]

Well, I certainly do not think this is "gone" like some people think, remember most on here are not saying this is going to develop right now in its current location..We are watching this to see of it can hold its structure for when it gets in the western Caribbean area where it has a better shot, and right now it is holding its own...

[rockyman]

NRL's position matches the model initialized position exactly...so maybe the area of lowest pressure is becoming better defined?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Probably and I'm actually suprised that this got an LLC so quickly.

[Thunder44]

There does seem to be some kind of open low or mid-level center moving WNW visible imagery and the little thunderstorms it had moved a little closer to it this afternoon. But still alot of shear will be preventing those storms from organizing much around the center.