2006 a bust???

[cajungal]

I was getting a little tired of all the season's a bust posts myself. This is completly normal for July. And it only takes one storm to make landfall for it to be a bad season. And Gulf Coast is still not ruled out for hits. Any storm making landfall south of Miami especially around the Keys, the central gulf coast is usually on high alert. Betsy did not hit until September 9, 1965 and she made landfall just west of New Orleans in Grand Isle. Isidore did not hit the Houma/Grand Isle area until mid September. And Lili did not hit until October 3rd. We even had Juan in 1985 that did not hit until around Halloween.

[brunota2003]

Hey...I need more recon!!! (that would be your cue senor...)

[Old-TimeCane]

"2006 is a bust"

Yeah, and people were saying the exact same thing around this time back in 2004.

Yep, I remember that. Even the people in Florida. Then a month passed...and we all know what happened over the next month after that. I guess you could call it a "bust" in another way...Florida got busted.

If anything is a bust at this point, the only thing that has been a bust is the first week of July. I mean come on, just one invest, versus 5 or six at the end of June (sarcasm intended in this paragraph).

[O Town]

So… in short… SIMMER DOWN!

Most excellent post, pepr!

[vacanechaser]

Where are all these bust posts? There seem to be more people complaining about bust posts than there are actual "bust posts." Maybe it just makes people proud of themselves to complain about "bust posts."

same thing, same time, same folks, every year...

well, if you have been around this board long enough, you will know certain people and their typical posts about a slow season, slower season, or a season that is dead tone when they start.. most of us have been here long enough, that when it starts, it does not start out with, "season a bust" or "season over".. these folks, just like the hurricane season, like to start "slow".. believe me, in about a week or so, if we dont see something, it will be full boar... and it usually starts with the SAL posts...

I seem to remember that same issue in 2004 being batted around... azores high too strong... too much shear, too much sal... In July!! and i think we remember how that season went...


if in the mid part of august we have not seen much or anything, then i will say ok... until then, i am enjoying the break and preparing...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team...

[gatorcane]

Where are all these bust posts? There seem to be more people complaining about bust posts than there are actual "bust posts." Maybe it just makes people proud of themselves to complain about "bust posts."

same thing, same time, same folks, every year...

well, if you have been around this board long enough, you will know certain people and their typical posts about a slow season, slower season, or a season that is dead tone when they start.. most of us have been here long enough, that when it starts, it does not start out with, "season a bust" or "season over".. these folks, just like the hurricane season, like to start "slow".. believe me, in about a week or so, if we dont see something, it will be full boar... and it usually starts with the SAL posts...

I seem to remember that same issue in 2004 being batted around... azores high too strong... too much shear, too much sal... In July!! and i think we remember how that season went...


if in the mid part of august we have not seen much or anything, then i will say ok... until then, i am enjoying the break and preparing...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team...

as I see it little activity early only means the sun has more of a chance to heat the atlantic waters - so come August - October, there will be alot of excess heat out there.

Also, I am noticing the easterlies have entrenched themselves over Florida with wave after wave now moving in - the Bermuda High is starting to rear its ugly head if you haven't noticed - that could be a bad sign for us as 2004 was very similar.


Things are starting to come together but still calling for a ramp up in activity in about 3-4 weeks.

[vacanechaser]

Find one post I said that this season will be quit? I'm just saying that this season is not very very faverable.

1# Theres strong Azores high deep into the tropics keeping the Itcz at 8 north...With strong SAL/Dry air. Yes its important in it kills and stops tropical cyclone development.

2# Strong tutt ULL moving southwestward through the central Atlatnic into the caribbean. These been doing so for the last 2 months...Will it change as we get into August maybe...Most likely weaken a little. But still 2002 like...Even so we still had Isidor and lili move through the caribbean that year. So no we will still see storms.

3# East coast trough has been around for the last month. Which is a sign of a more east coast season. Even so forecasters are noting that this is why they are forecasting a active east coast season. But this will still be unfaverable for anything to form near it.

In senorpepr, the sal is proven to cause trouble with tropical cyclones they don't do good under it. Also look at the last 100 years theres a reason why the normal is only 10 named storms a season. Look at the pattern and the facts.

#1, its july... the real summer time, or tropical pattern does not set up until late july to mid august.... in most years... things change quickly.. remember 2004???and SAl whether you know it or not, is a big problem in most years in june and july...

#2, most of our bigger hurricane seasons have these... they help to ventalate the systems as they move in from behind and as they move out, an upper ridge bilds in place... the tutt can be good and bad, i have seen many hurricanes bust the tutt and come out the other side to threaten the east coast and the gulf with a more ominus hurricane in past years..

#3, most times in the late summer, august and september, we dont see a lot of in close developemnt anyway... we watch the cape verde region.. they are the ones that eventually hit or miss the east coast with big storms... as i remember, a trough broke and split and left some energy behind in 2004 near the coast which allowed for alex to form... this will come down to timing... the ridge is building into the east now... next few days are going to be hot...and humid... this also reminds me of 1996 and 1999 a bit... not real hot here most of the summer in va, at times yes... but not like last year through much of the summer where temps stayed in the low to mid 90's much of the time...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Jim Cantore]

I have seen this topic popping up more frequently now and I feel it should be addressed. Apparently, if we do not have a record-tying five storms in July, the season is a bust.

I posted the following in the Tropical Analysis section, but I will repost it here to stress the point.

While we have already seen our first named storm this year, climatology says that by July 11th, we should have 0.9 named storms. Therefore, this is not a reason to hoist the freak-flag.

Below I have included a table listing July activity between 1976 and 2005. The first column is for storms forming on July 1st through July 11th. The second column represents storms forming on July 12th through July 31st. The third column is the July total for each respective year.

Code: Select all

2005   3   2   5
2004   0   1   1
2003   1   1   2
2002   0   1   1
2001   0   0   0
2000   0   0   0
1999   0   0   0
1998   0   1   1
1997   1   2   3
1996   1   1   2
1995   1   3   4
1994   0   0   0
1993   0   0   0
1992   0   0   0
1991   0   0   0
1990   0   3   3
1989   1   2   3
1988   0   0   0
1987   0   0   0
1986   0   0   0
1985   0   2   2
1984   0   0   0
1983   0   0   0
1982   0   0   0
1981   0   0   0
1980   1   0   1
1979   1   1   2
1978   0   1   1
1977   0   0   0
1976   0   1   1

So… what does this mean? Well, in reality, nothing. Mother Nature can do whatever she pleases, but these numbers can give us an idea of what July should hold for us.

Since 1995, there has been an average of 0.64 storms each year during the first 11 days of the month. With a standard deviation of 0.92, this gives us a range of 0.00 to 1.56.

Since 1995, there has been an average of 1.09 storms each year during the final 20 days of the month. With a standard deviation of 0.94, this gives us a range of 0.15 to 2.03. Therefore, it would be sensible for us to expect a storm or two for the rest of this month… but no storms whatsoever would not be too surprising.

For the whole month of July, the average since 1995 is 1.73 named storms. With a standard deviation of 1.68, this gives us a range of 0.05 and 3.41 storms.

Now, using a standard 30-year climatological data set…

Since 1976, there has been an average of 0.33 storms each year during the first 11 days of the month. With a standard deviation of 0.66, this gives us a range of 0.00 to 0.99.

Since 1976, there has been an average of 0.73 storms each year during the final 20 days of the month. With a standard deviation of 0.94, this gives us a range of 0.00 to 1.68. Therefore, it would still be sensible for us to expect a storm or two for the rest of this month… but no storms whatsoever would not be too surprising.

For the whole month of July, the average since 1976 is 1.07 named storms. With a standard deviation of 1.39, this gives us a range of 0.00 and 2.45 storms.

So… in short… SIMMER DOWN!

FANTASTIC POST!!! I made this point last night as well, we're right on target for this time of year.

[f5]

remember folks 2005 was a very unusual year.it set the benchmark

[Stephanie]

Therefore, this is not a reason to hoist the freak-flag

I saw the title of this thread and saw who typed it and said MIKE?????

[CajunMama]

Matt...I don't see anyone here saying YOU were the one making the bust posts yet you've made 2 posts within here saying you haven't made one bust post. I'm confuzzled????????????

[Jim Cantore]

I'll add another point

before 2005, when was the last time we had a 150mph storm in July? NEVER! or the last time we saw a cat 5 in July? NEVER! Or 5 named storms in July? NEVER!

I rest my case.

[Patrick99]

Even if August doesn't see much activity, I wouldn't necessarily consider the season a bust. September and October can pump them out in a hurry.

Vast majority of S. FL hits especially have come the last week of August through October.

[SouthFloridawx]

Thank you Mike

[Stephanie]

Even if August doesn't see much activity, I wouldn't necessarily consider the season a bust. September and October can pump them out in a hurry.

Vast majority of S. FL hits especially have come the last week of August through October.

September is the height of the season as well.

[Jim Cantore]

Since 1995

notible October storms



Opal ($3 Billion in damage)
Roxanne (14 deaths)
Mitch (180mph 905mb, over 9000 dead)
Irene ($600 Million in damage)
Iris (50 deaths)
Michelle (17 deaths, 30 missing)
Wilma (185mph, 882mb, $16.8 Billion in damage)
Beta (Major Damage in Nicaragua)

October can play with the big boys too

[senorpepr]

Where are all these bust posts? There seem to be more people complaining about bust posts than there are actual "bust posts." Maybe it just makes people proud of themselves to complain about "bust posts."

Try using the search function. There have been several in the past few days.

[senorpepr]

Find one post I said that this season will be quit? I'm just saying that this season is not very very faverable.

1# Theres strong Azores high deep into the tropics keeping the Itcz at 8 north...With strong SAL/Dry air. Yes its important in it kills and stops tropical cyclone development.

2# Strong tutt ULL moving southwestward through the central Atlatnic into the caribbean. These been doing so for the last 2 months...Will it change as we get into August maybe...Most likely weaken a little. But still 2002 like...Even so we still had Isidor and lili move through the caribbean that year. So no we will still see storms.

3# East coast trough has been around for the last month. Which is a sign of a more east coast season. Even so forecasters are noting that this is why they are forecasting a active east coast season. But this will still be unfaverable for anything to form near it.

In senorpepr, the sal is proven to cause trouble with tropical cyclones they don't do good under it. Also look at the last 100 years theres a reason why the normal is only 10 named storms a season. Look at the pattern and the facts.

You seem rather defensive in your post. It appears that you take personal offense with the presentation of climatology from me. Does climatology upset you?

My post had nothing to do with your viewpoints nor does it have anything to do on whether the season will be very favorable or not. It was simply a presentation to stress how this season is usual – we are near par thus far in the season. Furthermore, my post attempts to stress the importance of vigilance. Unfortunately, too many people will begin to let their guard down because July did not have at least five named storms. The fact of the matter is… we are near normal for the post-1995 era. That means, we can still EASILY see above-normal activity. We should not toss in the towel just because June and July are near normal.

As for your points about the average set-up over the basin, that really has nothing to do with my post. I am glad you looked at things, but I must stress something: remember that the atmosphere is in a fluid-like state. The subtropical ridge does move around from day to day. While not much, it does move. TUTTs do move from day to day. Troughs do move from day to day. My point is not to focus so much on what is going on during the first 40-some days of the hurricane season and proclaim that the remainder of the season will follow suit.

Finally, your comments about SAL do not really argue anything. The fact of the matter is… any time a storm is not developing, people tend to jump on the SAL-bandwagon. Yes, I know SAL can inhibit cyclogenesis. I do not need you to tell me that. My point is, do not hoist the SAL-flag every time your “10 Katrinas at the same time” fetish does not come true.

It has been proven before that many episodes of SAL (as per the board) are actually nothing more than subsidence and dry air, but nothing to do with Saharan air.

[Brent]

Thanks so much for this post senor! I have gotten sick and tired of it too and it's one reason I'm not posting as much here.

[gatorcane]

as soon as one thing forms even if it is a TD or TS you won't see people calling anything a bust.....