2006 a bust???

[senorpepr]

It funny how last August (just ten days before Katrina struck the Gulf Coast), I had to make a similar post regarding the "it's a slow season" weinners.

In that post, I gave a link to the The Meteorology Education and Training website sponsored by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: http://www.meted.ucar.edu/

Instead of blowing your energy on silly posts displaying your hatred because eleventy-billion storms haven't formed yet, funnel it toward learning a thing or two about meteorology. Their programs are free and they cover such a wide spectrum of topics. Also, you would be amazed at how many professional meteorologists, including those at the National Weather Service, use this very webpage for refresher training.

Now... go get your "smart" on...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Find one post I said that this season will be quit? I'm just saying that this season is not very very faverable.

1# Theres strong Azores high deep into the tropics keeping the Itcz at 8 north...With strong SAL/Dry air. Yes its important in it kills and stops tropical cyclone development.

2# Strong tutt ULL moving southwestward through the central Atlatnic into the caribbean. These been doing so for the last 2 months...Will it change as we get into August maybe...Most likely weaken a little. But still 2002 like...Even so we still had Isidor and lili move through the caribbean that year. So no we will still see storms.

3# East coast trough has been around for the last month. Which is a sign of a more east coast season. Even so forecasters are noting that this is why they are forecasting a active east coast season. But this will still be unfaverable for anything to form near it.

In senorpepr, the sal is proven to cause trouble with tropical cyclones they don't do good under it. Also look at the last 100 years theres a reason why the normal is only 10 named storms a season. Look at the pattern and the facts.

You seem rather defensive in your post. It appears that you take personal offense with the presentation of climatology from me. Does climatology upset you?

No I like climatology...Sorry if I went off a little.

My post had nothing to do with your viewpoints nor does it have anything to do on whether the season will be very favorable or not. It was simply a presentation to stress how this season is usual – we are near par thus far in the season. Furthermore, my post attempts to stress the importance of vigilance. Unfortunately, too many people will begin to let their guard down because July did not have at least five named storms. The fact of the matter is… we are near normal for the post-1995 era. That means, we can still EASILY see above-normal activity. We should not toss in the towel just because June and July are near normal.

I hope people dont' let there guard down. Hopefully after 2005 people know better then to do that. I'm also forecasting a 15 named storms season which is way above normal. So no I'm not calling this season a bust. Also I understand that June and July is normally quit with only about 1 named storm. But I'm talking about the overall pattern.

As for your points about the average set-up over the basin, that really has nothing to do with my post. I am glad you looked at things, but I must stress something: remember that the atmosphere is in a fluid-like state. The subtropical ridge does move around from day to day. While not much, it does move. TUTTs do move from day to day. Troughs do move from day to day. My point is not to focus so much on what is going on during the first 40-some days of the hurricane season and proclaim that the remainder of the season will follow suit.

You the Atmosphere is a fluid/gas and doe's move. But the overall pattern for over two months have been like this...But yes it could easly change...In normally doe's.

Finally, your comments about SAL do not really argue anything. The fact of the matter is… any time a storm is not developing, people tend to jump on the SAL-bandwagon. Yes, I know SAL can inhibit cyclogenesis. I do not need you to tell me that. My point is, do not hoist the SAL-flag every time your “10 Katrinas at the same time” fetish does not come true.

The SAL is very important out over the eastern Atlatnic. Maybe not so for the rest but important enough to be talked about or discussed over the eastern Part.

It has been proven before that many episodes of SAL (as per the board) are actually nothing more than subsidence and dry air, but nothing to do with Saharan air.

True enough,,,,But if its around the cape verde area its likely to be.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It funny how last August (just ten days before Katrina struck the Gulf Coast), I had to make a similar post regarding the "it's a slow season" weinners.

In that post, I gave a link to the The Meteorology Education and Training website sponsored by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: http://www.meted.ucar.edu/

Instead of blowing your energy on silly posts displaying your hatred because eleventy-billion storms haven't formed yet, funnel it toward learning a thing or two about meteorology. Their programs are free and they cover such a wide spectrum of topics. Also, you would be amazed at how many professional meteorologists, including those at the National Weather Service, use this very webpage for refresher training.

Now... go get your "smart" on...

Thank you for that...

[caribepr]

As I mentioned in another post, I think it's cool when people with knowledge or looking to learn follow waves, WITHOUT an end game in the picture. I've learned more from a few posts so far this year than ever. As long as it's just a wave being followed, talking about the WEATHER of it, nothing wrong with that...it's when it turns to WHERE WILL IT GO? WHEN WILL IT GET THERE? THIS WAVE IS CRAP, WHY DO YOU CARE, IT"S TOO EARLY blah blah blah that it's just stupid.
But the weather of it...how it moves, what the blocking or opening factors appear to be as it goes along, that is, to me, interesting. I've lived in the Caribbean long enough to see lots of waves come and go and to know when to start paying attention, but that is sailor knowledge, the actual HOW is something I like.
So, in regard to this thread (which I applaud loudly because I live in a quiet place and I can!), I would like to encourage those who love to follow weather systems to SIMPLY FOLLOW them here, without end game results. As in, right now this is happening, and that is happening and one hour down the road, this might be happening, rather than....well...that other stuff.

I love this board, and I know so little and most likely won't ever know as much as many, but I don't care, I get what I need and learn along the way (hmm, maybe being old helps here?) If you love it too, help make it the best, without egos in the way. Win win!
Sorry for the rant...but it's only July...we have many more serious months to go.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

In that post, I gave a link to the The Meteorology Education and Training website sponsored by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: http://www.meted.ucar.edu

Met Ed is an awesome site, full of a ton of great content. I would recommend it highly to anyone who wants to take that first step towards a meteorology degree.

[Jim Cantore]

If you arent convinced yet then look at this

http://www.careerbuilder.com/monk-e-mail/?mid=11553465

[whereverwx]

Good post! It seems that if we don't have a super hyper active season, then, for some people, it's considered a bust.

[senorpepr]

Good post! It seems that if we don't have a super hyper active season, then, for some people, it's considered a bust.

Shoot... even last year, during a hyper-active season, there were countless "season bust" posts.

[Jim Cantore]

Good post! It seems that if we don't have a super hyper active season, then, for some people, it's considered a bust.

Shoot... even last year, during a hyper-active season, there were countless "season bust" posts.

then...................................

[f5]

Good post! It seems that if we don't have a super hyper active season, then, for some people, it's considered a bust.

Shoot... even last year, during a hyper-active season, there were countless "season bust" posts.

then...................................

^ i think we all know who she is

[Jim Cantore]

Good post! It seems that if we don't have a super hyper active season, then, for some people, it's considered a bust.

Shoot... even last year, during a hyper-active season, there were countless "season bust" posts.

then...................................

^ i think we all know who she is

IT'S LEE!

[gatorcane]

All I have to say about that picture is

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be
used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or
may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT
endorsed by any professional institution including
storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC
and NWS products.

I am not by any means an expert but I will offer an analysis
with comparison used to support the analysis.

Conditions are currently unfavorable for development.
..but once conditions become more favorable (during late
July or August), with SSTs as high as they are, and other
favorable conditions in place, storms are very likely
to grow very intense. There will likely be a few very intense
storms this year...August/September...all that warm water

Just because there aren't as many storms
as in 2005 doesn't
mean the storms won't get as intense
or close to as intense as in 2005...the SSTs are
very warm and
oceanic heat content in the Caribbean and
GOM and South
of Cuba is incredibly high, and able to
support a very dangerous hurricane, or several
very dangerous hurricanes.

If we do see these intense storms...we are going to
wish that we had the quiet period that we
are having now...

The fact that we are not seeing storms now does not make
the likelihood for very dangerously intense hurricanes any
less...in fact it increases that likelihood by allowing SSTs
to continue to rise all season long...last year Dennis and
Emily took some oceanic heat out of the
Caribbean in July, but despite having the
two strongest July storms ever that
removed significant amounts of heat from the
Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico because
they were so powerful- the most powerful hurricane
ever formed over the Caribbean-
the same waters- in October. But this year there
have been no major hurricanes to
significantly decrease the oceanic heat content
in the Caribbean and Gulf Of Mexico. Oceanic
heat content is building and will continue to do
so through August/September. This means
that very intense hurricanes are likely once
conditions become more
favorable in August/September. Very high
intensity is likely with several
of these peak-season storms.

[SouthFloridawx]

SAL is a term that is a bit over used.

[brunota2003]

senor...you still havent given me the more recon pic on here... that pic is awesome!

[Jim Cantore]

SAL is a term that is a bit over used.

agreed

look at last year, SAL this, SAL that, SAL yomama, SAL is killing the season.

SAL didnt effect anything, the waves just crossed into the Bahamas or Caribbiean and then formed

examples

Cindy
Dennis
Emily
Katrina
Rita
Wilma

[storms in NC]

Only July 11th just give a few fews or so.

[SouthFloridawx]

SAL is a term that is a bit over used.

agreed

look at last year, SAL this, SAL that, SAL yomama, SAL is killing the season.

SAL didnt effect anything, the waves just crossed into the Bahamas or Caribbiean and then formed

examples

Cindy
Dennis
Emily
Katrina
Rita
Wilma

Exactly

[senorpepr]

senor...you still havent given me the more recon pic on here... that pic is awesome!

[Jim Cantore]

senor...you still havent given me the more recon pic on here... that pic is awesome!

that looks like JB