Tropical Depression Bud (03E) in EPAC

[whereverwx]

[CrazyC83]

That 115 is conservative IMO. I think 145 is more like it now.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

I'm quite aggressive on this prediction again. I'm boldly thinking this will be a monster in the ocean.

Current - 14.6/114.1 - 975mb - 90mph
12 hrs - 15.1/115.6 - 962mb - 115mph
24 hrs - 15.9/117.4 - 943mb - 145mph
36 hrs - 16.6/119.5 - 937mb - 140mph
48 hrs - 17.1/121.8 - 945mb - 125mph
60 hrs - 17.3/123.6 - 956mb - 110mph
72 hrs - 17.4/125.8 - 968mb - 105mph
96 hrs - 17.6/129.5 - 969mb - 100mph
120 hrs - 17.5/133.7 - 981mb - 75mph

[Cyclenall]

New % chance for Hurricane Bud:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Major Hurricane: 71%
Category 5 Hurricane: 5.75%

I wonder what I will wake up to tomorrow morning.

[CrazyC83]

My estimates for % chance:

Tropical Storm - 100%
Hurricane - 100%
Major Hurricane - 90%
Category 4 Hurricane - 60%
Category 5 Hurricane - 30%

[HurricaneHunter914]

Here are my chances:

Tropical Storm - 100%
Hurricane - 100%
Major Hurricane - 80%
Cat-5 - 20%

[HouTXmetro]

Why would it weaken over the open Pacific being that it's not gaining much lattitude?

[HURAKAN]

Why would it weaken over the open Pacific being that it's not gaining much lattitude?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/pac_anal.gif

This map could answer your question.

Always remember that the EPAC has a current called "California Current" that takes the cold water from the northern Pacific toward warmer latitudes, therefore, the EPAC cannot get very warm passed 20ºN. The same happens in the Atlantic in the eaternside, which is less familiar to us, but we have the "Canary Islands Current" which takes the cold water from the north Atlantic toward warmer latitudes. Therefore, the waters of the northeastern coast of Africa and the coast of Europe are cold.



BLUE ARROWS: COLD WATER CURRENT
RED ARROWS: HOT WATER CURRENT

[Cyclenall]

Why would it weaken over the open Pacific being that it's not gaining much lattitude?

The NHC states that Bud would be moving over cooler waters in the future. Now my question is, why are those waters cooler when the latitude is the same? I would love this to be answered.

[HURAKAN]

I know everyone here is excited because Bud has suddenly become a hurricane, but don't let the horses get in front of the carriage. First, the NHC has a lot of experience with storms like Bud. Second, since the storm suddenly erupted, the intensity of its convective patten has diminished a lot, as you can see in the image below. Third, the system is nearing cold waters, therefore, I think 115 mph as a forecast in not conservative since the storm is not even showing signs of going through an EWRC as the eye has remained intact.

[Cyclenall]

Why is dry air entering the system when there is no dry air around it? Just look:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsp3.html

Can someone explain this because I can't figure it out. It appears that sharp dry air entered into the system yet there isn't any dry air around it!

[Scorpion]

Wow, this really blew up fast. But I also think 100 kts will be its peak IMO. Cold waters, inactive cycle.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Over the last few satellite frames the cloud tops around the eye have grown much colder. With a soild ring around the eye...The eye has also cleared out nicely...A little unperfect...But enough to say 95 knots.

[curtadams]

Why is dry air entering the system when there is no dry air around it? Just look:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsp3.html

Can someone explain this because I can't figure it out. It appears that sharp dry air entered into the system yet there isn't any dry air around it!

The satellite measurements show you (kind of) average water throughout the atmosphere. You can still have dry layers - particularly under high clouds.

[Cyclenall]

Why is dry air entering the system when there is no dry air around it? Just look:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsp3.html

Can someone explain this because I can't figure it out. It appears that sharp dry air entered into the system yet there isn't any dry air around it!

The satellite measurements show you (kind of) average water throughout the atmosphere. You can still have dry layers - particularly under high clouds.

That's the first time I have ever heard that. So is dry air effecting this storm then?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like it washed the dry air out of its core...Earlier it pulled in some dry air. But now you got a full ring of deep convection developing around the eye...With a eye which is becoming clear. I think this is very close to become a major right now.

[quandary]

Both Bud and TD 4 seem to be intensifying quite nicely at the moment.

Bud is somewhat lacking is really deep convection but has become extremely well organized and TD 4 has much deeper convection around the center.

[whereverwx]

He's looking really intense right now!

[mtm4319]

This reminds me of what Beta did last year just before crossing the Nicaragua coast -- its overall structure improved, including an eye clearing out, but the orange and red cloud tops (as shown on the AVN images) started to disappear at the same time. It peaked at 115 mph for a mere 3 hours before starting to weaken, probably due to land interaction. Since there's no land in Bud's path, it might continue to strengthen for a little while longer (and I see some of the reds near the center coming back). But I think the odds are at least slight that Bud might not become a cat 2 until sometime Wednesday afternoon.

[Thunder44]

Statement as of 2:00 am PDT on July 12, 2006



the convection surrounding the slightly elliptical eye has deepened
during the past several hours. However...SSMI imagery at 0353z
revealed that the eyewall was slightly open to the northwest... and
a burst of convection in the southeastern eyewall has very recently
obscured the eye in infrared imagery. The upper-level outflow is
well-established in all directions...with perhaps just a subtle
restriction to the east due to the outflow from developing Tropical
Storm Carlotta. Other than that...with the center of Carlotta about
650 N mi east of the eye of Bud...the cyclones appear to be
sufficiently separated such that significant interaction between
them is not likely to occur. Dvorak estimates at 06z were 77-90
kt... and the advisory intensity is raised to 85 kt...but the
recent trends in satellite imagery might be signs that Bud has
peaked in intensity.

Bud continues moving along the previous advisory track at about
290/11. Water vapor imagery reveals a mid- to upper-level
vorticity maximum near 30n 130w associated with a weakness in the
subtropical ridge extending westward from northern Mexico. The
global models forecast little movement of that feature during the
next couple of days...after which time the subtropical ridge should
build westward over the Pacific. Bud should not be affected much by
that weakness before it disappears...so a continued
west-northwestward track is forecast for the next 48-72 hours...
followed by a westward turn south of the building ridge. The models
that have a decent representation of the hurricane... such as the
GFDL...UKMET...and NOGAPS anticipate Bud to maintain its current
heading longer than in earlier runs...and the new official forecast
follows suit. Along this more northerly track...Bud will be
reaching the sharp SST gradient in less than 36 hours...and the
SSTs will be gradually on the decline until then that time...so the
new official forecast peaks lower at 90 kt during the next 24 hours
and also shows a more rapid decline beyond that time.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/0900z 15.0n 115.3w 85 kt
12hr VT 12/1800z 15.7n 117.0w 90 kt
24hr VT 13/0600z 16.6n 119.4w 90 kt
36hr VT 13/1800z 17.5n 121.7w 75 kt
48hr VT 14/0600z 18.5n 124.1w 60 kt
72hr VT 15/0600z 19.5n 128.5w 45 kt
96hr VT 16/0600z 19.5n 132.5w 35 kt
120hr VT 17/0600z 19.0n 136.0w 30 kt

$$
forecaster Knabb