MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1472
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0827 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 110127Z - 110400Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NRN/CENTRAL OK...BUT MERGING OUTFLOWS/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER
   SHOULD DIMINISH HAIL/WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
   ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO AND FAR NWRN AR
   TONIGHT.
   
   A STATIONARY EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS
   CENTRAL OK...WHILE ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH CONVECTION...
   STRETCHED FROM WEST OF TUL SWWD TO OKC AND LTS MOVING SLOWLY EWD.
   EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS VERY MOIST
   WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH IN THE TX PANHANDLE...LIFTING SLOWLY EWD...WILL AID THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET FROM SWRN OK NEWD INTO SWRN MO BY MID
   EVENING. THE MOIST AIR MASS BEING LIFTED ABOVE THE RAIN COOLED
   BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE E-W
   ORIENTED BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY
   RAINFALL...ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREAS WHERE
   POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   36169364 34959619 35169703 36159774 37309621 37949498
   37959383 37429352 36999336

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1473
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0922 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
   
   VALID 111422Z - 111545Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
   HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.
   ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK WITH THE
   1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.
   
   BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM
   TRANSLATING THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY COUPLED WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER ARE SUPPORTING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND A WEAKENING CAP.  RADAR
   IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MORE ISOLATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
   IN WAKE OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE OVER PORTIONS OF MA AS OF 1415Z.
   WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...12Z
   ALB SOUNDING INDICATED MODEST /30-40 KTS/ WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE
   DEPTH OF THE PROFILE...WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS.
   
   CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL
   STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS REGION.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
   
   41207322 41857340 43047314 43437279 43627213 43847123
   43857075 43637020 42707035 42107026 41657030 41297097
   41007184

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1474
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL AR INTO S-CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 111700Z - 111830Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING
   WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON.  THIS THREAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED
   AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.  LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE OWING TO THE ANTICIPATED HIGH RAIN RATES AND RELATIVELY
   SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DEEPENING
   ALONG A LINE FROM W OF HRO TO FSM TO E OF MLC AS OF 1650Z.  STRONG
   DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
   LOWER/MID 70S IS SUPPORTING FAIRLY RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF
   DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS AR WITH MLCAPES LIKELY INCREASING TO
   1500-2000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH MCVS OVER CNTRL OK AND FAR SWRN MO ACTING ON THIS MODERATE
   INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   CURRENT PROFILERS/VWPS INDICATE THAT WIND FIELDS ARE LARGELY WSWLY
   THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE WITH GENERALLY 20-30 KTS OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN MULTICELLULAR...WITH SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR AN EVOLUTION INTO A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
   EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   35369437 36419336 37059264 37349189 37199136 36729109
   36209127 35609169 35079296 34739381 34809445

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1475
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/SRN KS INTO EXTREME NWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 111756Z - 112000Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS SWRN/SRN KS WITH A THREAT OF
   MARGINALLY SVR WIND AND HAIL. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 19-20Z.
   
   DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE
   TROUGH EXTENDING NE/SW ACROSS KS. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWED TCU
   OVER SWRN KS AS OF 1745Z...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND MODIFIED 12Z
   DDC SOUNDING SHOW CIN IS GONE OVER SWRN KS WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG
   MLCAPE IN PLACE. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO
   STEEPEN...AIDED BY WEAK UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING EWD OUT OF CO.
   ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...THIS WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
   FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
   
   AREA WIND PROFILERS SHOW WEAK WLY FLOW ALOFT...THEREFORE PULSE AND
   MULTICELLS ARE LIKELY. HODOGRAPHS INDICATE FORECAST STORM MOTIONS IN
   AN ELY AND EVENTUALLY ESELY DIRECTION. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS PROPAGATE
   ESEWD.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...
   
   38810170 38980111 38339974 38139820 37729762 37089771
   36769793 36559838 36619962 37140093 37420140

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1476
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0131 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ND...FAR NRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 111831Z - 112030Z
   
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED
   TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FORMING WITHIN SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
   CENTRAL ND. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE CIN AND PRODUCE
   DEEP MIXED LAYERS WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 55-60 F RANGE.
   MODIFIED 12Z BIS SOUNDING...AS WELL AS FORECAST RUC
   SOUNDINGS...INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.
   
   INITIATION MAY BE AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER VORT LOBE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD
   ACROSS ND. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
   WEAK...SOME LOW LEVEL VEERING /ESPECIALLY OVER NERN ND AND NWRN MN/
   SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS COULD EXHIBIT ROTATION...IF ONLY FOR BRIEF
   PERIODS DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT. CONTINUED STRONG
   HEATING AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH
   STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   46179822 48999602 49009968 48370031 46490154 45960110
   45969959

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1477
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0356 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OK INTO NWRN AR AND SWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 112056Z - 112230Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTOR
   
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING
   DOWNBURST WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   AS OF 2015Z...SATELLITE AND VISUAL OBSERVATION INDICATES TCU
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
   COMANCHE COUNTY EWD THROUGH GARVIN COUNTY INTO LEFLORE COUNTY IN ERN
   OK.  ELSEWHERE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS OVER
   CHEROKEE...ADAIR AND DELAWARE COUNTIES IN NERN OK...AND NEAR
   SGF...BOTH OF WHICH LOCATIONS ARE COINCIDENT WITH WEAKENING MCV
   CENTERS.
   
   AMBIENT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND HOT THIS AFTERNOON
   SUPPORTING MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION.  WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK /20-25 KTS IN THE
   LOWEST 6 KM/...FDR/TLX VWPS INDICATE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   VEERING WITH HEIGHT.  BASED ON THIS ENVIRONMENT...IT APPEARS THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD IS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED
   WITH WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY.
   
   ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED SHOULD BE
   MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SWLY LLJ
   STRENGTHENS FROM SRN OK INTO THE OZARKS.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
   AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
   HAZARDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...
   
   34979843 35139769 35349665 35809587 36929504 37889418
   37969314 37429232 36379280 35129417 34549475 34259651
   34269788

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1478
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL AND S PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 112054Z - 112230Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH
   INTENSIFYING STORMS OVER THE SWRN PNHDL AND WRN S PLAINS.  THIS
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED A NO WW IS ANTICIPATED.
   
   TSTMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS OF 2045Z OVER DEAF SMITH AND PARMER
   COUNTIES SWD INTO BAILEY...LAMB...COCHRAN AND HOCKLEY COUNTIES
   WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO
   1000-1500 J/KG.  BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT THIS
   ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN WAKE OF WEAK IMPULSE TRANSLATING EWD INTO
   WRN KS/NWRN KS...SUGGESTING THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAK.
   
   THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY
   DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE
   OF THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.  PRIOR TO THIS TIME...STORMS WILL
   REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OWING TO STRONG
   EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...
   
   33500301 34760301 35160243 35350144 34950039 34530006
   34040052 33370240

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1479
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0501 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CT/MA/NH/NJ/NY/PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591...
   
   VALID 112201Z - 112330Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED WITH WW 591 THROUGH 00Z...THOUGH
   STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.
   ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE WITHIN THE WW...AHEAD OF A
   WEAK COLD FRONT. OUTSIDE RAIN COOLED AREAS MLCAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG
   AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
   STORMS. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE RIDING ALOFT IS SPREADING EWD INTO THE
   AREAS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO ME. STORMS WITH HAIL
   AND SOME WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT SHOULD
   QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...
   
   40657556 43027198 42777039 41487008 40207340

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND WRN KS...NRN AND WRN OK...TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 112321Z - 120115Z
   
   SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW OF THEM WITH SVR HAIL AND/OR WIND...WILL
   LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AN
   ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED.
   
   STORMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY
   UNORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH A FEW HAVE BEEN SEVERE. HOWEVER...STRONG
   INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER THE AREA DUE IN PART TO WEAK MID LEVEL COOL
   TROUGH. WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE AS SEEN ON
   AREA PROFILERS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO
   SURVIVE BY PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG THEIR OWN OUTFLOW...OR THE OUTFLOW
   OF OTHERS. UNLESS A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH DOMINANT
   COLD POOL CAN FORM...AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT LIKELY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/11/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...
   
   38260116 38700116 38699846 38519850 38539793 38189792
   38169710 38079712 38099651 37009649 36989677 36789676
   36699693 36679703 36609700 36599686 36539688 36499699
   36319701 36329685 36159679 36179657 35949660 35949709
   35679713 35719830 35569827 35539862 35839859 35819938
   36019935 35989948 35879953 35839960 35919973 35999978
   35939992 35850000 36999999 36970152 38250155

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0751 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 120051Z - 120145Z
   
   ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN SWRN OH BETWEEN CINCINNATI AND
   COLUMBUS UNTIL 02Z...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH.
   
   
   AN EXTREMELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SWRN OH AND A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
   CIRCULATION MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE AREA.  ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST KM WAS
   RESULTING IN 25 KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
   TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO ANY CELLULAR STORMS
   THAT CAN BE MAINTAINED...GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY. THE STORMS
   SHOULD WEAKEN SHORTLY AS TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE COOL A FEW
   DEGREES.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...
   
   40088284 39638262 39088337 38948412 39308435 39738429
   40148346

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1106 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 120406Z - 120530Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF ERN OK...THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE THE GREATER
   THREAT. WW APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
   
   SMALL MCS OVER NERN OK IS MOVING SEWD AT 20-25 KT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
   ORGANIZED COLD POOL/MESO-HIGH SUGGESTS STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY
   WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO TUL BY 0430Z AND MKO BY 06Z. A
   BOUNDARY EXTENDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FROM TUL TO FSM AND
   TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THE
   WEST SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE INSTABILITY TO
   MAINTAIN STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE RELATIVE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
   THE LINE AND EXPECTED DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE
   WINDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
   
   LOW LEVEL JET...WITH SSWLY WINDS AT 30-35 KT...MAY RESULT IN THE WRN
   END OF THE LINE TO BACKBUILD SWD AND ALSO MOVE SWD SLOWER THAN THE
   ERN PORTION OF THE LINE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND
   SLOWER MOTION OF STORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST
   END OF THE LINE WHERE THE CONVERGENCE AND INFLOW OF MOISTURE WILL BE
   THE GREATEST.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OUN...
   
   36079734 36029584 36729496 36669458 35269425 34659465
   34879591 35589701

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1055 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA / NJ / SERN NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121555Z - 121730Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW
   TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WW ISSUANCE.
   
   COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS LATE THIS MORNING OWING TO
   ONGOING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN
   ONTARIO IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH
   LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.  FARTHER TO THE SE...DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM NEAR AVP TO S OF POU HAS
   STARTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS
   OVER UPSTATE NY.  MEANWHILE TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY...BREAKS IN
   THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING OVER
   ERN PA AND NJ WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S.
   WHEN COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS /70-75 F
   DEWPOINTS/ AIR MASS IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF
   1000-2000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CAP.
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS WITHIN THIS
   CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARING TO EXIST ALONG RETREATING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY OVER NERN PA INTO SERN NY.  HERE...LOCALLY STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN THE VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
   ENVIRONMENT.  BOTH DEEP AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL TEND TO DECREASE
   WITH SWD EXTENT OVER ERN PA AND NJ...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST STORMS
   WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...
   
   39887722 40877695 41587644 41967596 42117535 41987445
   41707376 41057362 39877408 39407482 39297646

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PORTIONS OF KY / TN INTO ERN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121652Z - 121815Z
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS BEING LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS BEEN
   OBSERVED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO FROM NEAR OWB TO W OF MEM
   WITHIN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND
   DEWPOINTS OF 70-75 F.  CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY RESIDES
   OVER CNTRL AR /MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG/...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
   DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SIMILAR INSTABILITY EWD INTO THE
   LOWER/MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. 
   
   THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF MCV/S OVER
   E-CNTRL MO AND N-CNTRL AR SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN AR INTO NWRN MS...AND OVER WRN
   PARTS OF KY AND TN.  REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR
   REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND LESS THAN 30 KTS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL.
   STILL...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS
   WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY.  EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...OWING TO MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW AOA 2 INCHES/ AND
   POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...
   
   34149288 34809241 36208998 37978730 38078664 37638609
   36948621 36108704 34688942 33829093 33669222

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OH INTO SWRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121738Z - 121915Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR
   TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY
   INCREASING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SMALL MCV TRANSLATING EWD
   THROUGH SERN OH.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DAYTIME
   HEATING ACROSS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INTO SWRN PA.
   HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOWER 70S WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.
   MOREOVER...CURRENT PITTSBURG VWP INDICATES MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2/.  THIS SOURCE OF STREAMWISE
   VORTICITY COUPLED WITH VERTICAL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH MCV MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   THIS ANTICIPATED THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED BOTH
   SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
   39898184 40528158 40868069 40997973 40777890 40187886
   39497967 39288054 39318155

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV / MD / NRN VA / INTO DE AND SRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121756Z - 121930Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   AIR MASS E OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAS BECOME HOT AND QUITE MOIST THIS
   AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  RADAR IMAGERY
   INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS WEAKLY
   CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FROM CNTRL MD ACROSS NRN VA INTO FAR ERN WV.
   REGIONAL VWPS SHOW THAT THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS EXIST
   ACROSS OH / PA INTO NRN NJ WITH GENERALLY 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR ACROSS MOST OF DISCUSSION AREA.  THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY
   DEVELOPING TSTMS TO REMAIN MULTICELLULAR WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED...HOWEVER IF
   IT BECOMES APPARENT A MORE ORGANIZED MESOSCALE SYSTEM CAN
   DEVELOP...A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   
   38098008 39127981 39697882 39907717 40087577 40137515
   39487467 38817504 38077554 37927733 37627955

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY INTO SRN OH AND WRN WV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121813Z - 121945Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   A LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A NE-SW
   ORIENTED CONFLUENCE LINE FROM NEAR LEX TO BWG WITH ADDITIONAL MORE
   ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED OVER NERN KY INTO SRN OH.  WHILE
   BOUNDARY LAYER OVER KY INTO WV HAS BECOME RELATIVELY HOT AND
   MOIST...RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT RATHER WARM MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES /I.E. AOA -6 C 500 MB/ ARE LIKELY LIMITED INSTABILITY
   /MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/.  DESPITE THIS WEAK INSTABILITY...CURRENT
   LOUISVILLE VWP SHOWS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OF AROUND 35
   KTS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL...SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
   ORGANIZATION/ROTATION.
   
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL
   UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BOWING OR LEWP LINE STRUCTURE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
   
   36778657 38058538 38768396 39048241 38908159 38248128
   37538144 36698378 36618618

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121833Z - 121930Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS DISCUSSION
   AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   AS OF 1825Z...UPTON NY RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STORM EXHIBITING
   SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER LONG ISLAND SOUND /20 WSW GON/ WITH A
   MOTION OF 265/20 KTS.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE
   LIMITED DIABATIC HEATING WITHIN AMBIENT AIR MASS FROM LONG ISLAND
   NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH TEMPERATURES LINGERING IN THE 70S.
   HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO
   POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG.
   
   ASSOCIATED UPTON NY VWP INDICATES THAT KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
   SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 AND
   0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KTS. THIS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
   INTENSIFY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS SWLY LLJ
   INTENSIFIES TO 30-40 KTS.  THEREFORE...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR
   SMALL-DIAMETER SUPERCELL STORMS TO PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
   BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  THIS
   THREAT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...
   
   41007356 41507351 41777315 41827194 41827112 41197130
   40997275

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121927Z - 122100Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WINDS AND
   HAIL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  A WW IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
   ALONG WEAK FRONTAL ZONE OVER ELLIS...HODGEMAN AND EDWARDS COUNTIES
   IN WRN KS.  STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.  INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NRN EDGE
   OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND FAR
   SWRN KS.  AREA PROFILERS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
   WEAK...HOWEVER THE STEEP LOW-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER
   SLOWLY COOLS AND STABILIZES.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   37749968 38910077 39580088 39880003 39569908 38769831
   37989842 37579884

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1490
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN ND/WESTERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 121949Z - 122145Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON
   ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF ND/SD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL
   POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A
   POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH /MAINLY ACROSS ND/.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES MULTIPLE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF
   EASTERN MT/NORTHEAST WY/WESTERN ND. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
   TOWERING CU/INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN ND /NEAR LAKE
   SAKAKAWEA SOUTHWEST OF MINOT/...INTO FAR WESTERN SD BETWEEN BUFFAL0
   AND RAPID CITY AS OF 1945Z. AMBIENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN
   DAKOTAS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEPLY MIXED/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 90S/LOWER
   100S. ALTHOUGH MORNING RAOBS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPRESENTATIVE
   OF MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES...RUC SOUNDINGS/MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS ARE
   SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. LIMITED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL
   TROPOSPHERIC WEAKNESSES...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS AROUND 25-30 KTS.
   ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION MAY REMAIN LIMITED...HIGH BASED STORMS WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...IN ADDITION TO
   LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   44130216 44190331 45600384 47830341 48400288 48670225
   48780127 48500001 46870068 44680111 44160185

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MT/FAR NORTHEAST
   ID/NORTHWEST WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 122018Z - 122215Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
   FROM SOUTHWEST MT/FAR EASTERN ID INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT/NORTHWEST WY.
   ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   
   AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ID/FAR WESTERN MT PER
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY AT MID AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ID/FAR SOUTHWEST
   MT. AS STORMS FURTHER INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST...POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS /AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL/
   WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND A
   DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/INVERTED-V PROFILES. CURRENT THINKING IS
   THAT THE THREAT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO
   PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/12/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
   
   45831223 47471078 47270865 46080748 44380864 43301102
   43591200 45031236