Question re: Season Predictions

[gopherfan21]

Yeah hi I've been lurking this forum for quite some time and decided to finally register and post....I have a big question.

I remember reading through the season prediction thread earlier and noticed that many many people predicted 20+ named storms, even as many as 30.

I would like to know how these people feel about the season now, since obviously this season is not going to be like last year. I'd also like to know how they feel about their previous prediction and what they feel they should have done differently and maybe avoid for next time.

Thanks.

[Aquawind]

Welcome fellow Gopher fan! Good question.. Myself I am still comfy with my numbers. Things are progressing just as I hoped for..about normal..

Here is the 2006 list.

1-Cycloneye=16/9/4=(Preliminary) 15/9/4=(Final) 3/28/06
2-Meso=19/9/5
3-Team Ragnarok=17/7/4 (Preliminary) 18/7/4=(Final) 5/4/06
4-Ixolib=21/11/5
5-weatherwoman132=24/10/5 (Preliminary) 19/10/6=(Final) 5/19/06
6-Matt-hurricanewatcher=13/5/2=(Preliminary) 15/7/3=(Final) 5/5/06
7-Yarrah=15/9/4
8-webke=17/9/4
9-angelwing=26/10/5=(Preliminary) 27/11/6=(Final) 4/21/06
10-CHRISTY=22/11/6=(Preliminary) 18/11/6=(Final) 5/31/06
11-King-6=19/11/6=(Preliminary) 19/11/6=(Final) 3/23/06
12-skysummit=17/11/4
13-feederband=22/13/6
14-raindaze=21/11/4
15-CapeVerdeWave=16/9/6=(Preliminary) 16/9/6=(Final) 5/5/06
16-Weatherfreak000=24/9/6
17-alicia-w=21/16/5
18-HurricaneGirl=21/12/6
19-CrazyC83=18/11/7=(Preliminary) 20/12/7=(Final) 5/4/06
20-Andrew92=18/10/6
21-Hurricane Hunter 914=18/9/6=(Preliminary) 20/12/8=(Final) 5/28/06
22-vbhoutex=19/11/6= (Preliminary) 19/11/6=(Final) 5/9/06
23-southerngale=18/9/5=(Preliminary) 18/9/5=(Final) 4/9/06
24-Opal Storm=19/10/6=(Preliminary)18/9/6=(Final) 5/7/06
25-HURAKAN=18/9/5=(Preliminary) 19/11/6 (Final) 4/27/06
26-Bob R=16/8/4
27-ROCK=17/9/4
28-KWT=22/15/5=(Preliminary) 19/12/6=(Final) 5/24/06
29-Milankovitch=15/8/4
30-fact789=20/10/3=(Preliminary) 20/10/4=(Final) 5/30/06
31-GeneratorPower=30/17/7
32-boca_chris=22/11/5=(Preliminary) 15/9/4=(Final) 4/11/06
33-boca=17/9/4
34-Calamity=14/7/4
35-Steve=15/9/4
36-pelican13=16/8/4
37-hurricanefloyd5=20/10/6
38-x-y-no=18/11/6
39-storm4u=24/17/9=(Preliminary) 23/13/6=(Final) 5/11/06
40-mike815=18/8/5
41-JamesFromMaine2=22/13/5
42-Hurraicaneman=16/10/6=(Preliminary) 18/11/6=(Final) 4/27/06
43-Audrey2Katrina=16/7/3
44-aaaaaa=30/15/10
45-TampaFl=18/8/6
46-Hybridstorm_November2001=25/15/7
47-swimaster20=18/9/5=(Preliminary) 16/9/5=(Final) 5/22 06
48-RatteMan=20/13/5=(Preliminary) 18/11/6=(Final) 5/30/06
49-Scorpion=17/9/5=(Preliminary) 18/10/5=(Final) 5/16/06
50-Brunota2003=25/15/9
51-WindRunner=17/9/5=(Preliminary) 16/7/3=(Final) 5/15/06
52-wxwatcher91=17/10/6
53-johngaltfla=23/12/5
54-jason0909=15/7/4
55-george r 1961=20/10/5
56-Brent=17/9/5
57-southfloridawx2005=19/9/6=(Preliminary) 19/9/6=(Final) 3/28/06
58-weatherwindow=19/11/7
59-O Town=20/10/5
60-Trey=18/11/5
61-stacyp=11/5/2
62-CajunMama=19/8/3
63-Ivan14=18/9/6
64-f5=20/10/5
65-windycity=17/8/5 (Preliminary) 17/10/4=(Final) 4/3/06
66-NCHurricane=20/10/5=(Preliminary) 19/10/5=(Final) 5/22/06
67-wxman22=20/10/4
68-Stephanie=16/8/4
69-docjoe=20/14/6=(Preliminary) 19/11/6=(Final) 5/14/06
70-therock1811=20/10/5
71-drezee=15/9/4
72-James=17/7/4
73-ohiostorm=19/10/6
74-100feettstormsurge=19/11/5=(Preliminary) 22/12/6=(Final) 5/30/06
75-lester88=23/12/5
76-EFrancis=25/11/4
77-thefixed=23/12/7=(Preliminary) 21/10/6=(Final) 5/31/06
78-Pearl River=19/15/6
79-wayne56=19/13/7
80-benny=15/8/4
81-StormScanWx=18/10/4=(Preliminary) 19/11/5=(Final) 3/31/06
82-Vortex=18/9/5
83-reader12=17/11/4
84-JtSmarts=17/10/5
85-Extremeweatherguy=18/9/4=(Preliminary) 18/9/5=(Final) 4/19/06
86-canetracker=17/9/5
87-FlSteel=19/12/7
88-Johnny=19/10/5
89-TexasStooge=17/8/4=(Preliminary) 17/9/4=(Final) 3/22/06
90-NONAME=22/15/6
91-dixiebreeze=15/7/4
92-BayouVenteux=16/9/5=(Preliminary 16/9/4=(Final) 4/19/06
93-Jack8631=19/9/4
94-JPmia=21/14/6
95-ivanhater=19/11/7=(Preliminary)19/11/7=(Final) 5/7/06
96-The European=20/11/6
97-AussieMark=15/8/5=(Preliminary 14/7/4=(Final) 5/31/06
98-StormsFury=18/11/5
99-The Cycloman PR=15/9/4
100-mikeanthony1965=20/12/5
101-luvwinter=19/10/6
102-stormchazer=18/16/4
103-MGC=15/9/4
104-Rainband=20/14/8=(Preliminary) 20/9/6=(Final) 5/5/06
105-wxmann 91=16/10/7=(Preliminary) 14-8-5=(Final) 5/11/06
106-Hurricane Floyd=17/9/5=(Preliminary) 17/9/5=(Final) 5/9/06
107-Jax=21/10/3
108-Isu2001=20/9/4
109-HouTXmetro=23/12/7
110-cheezywxman=22/11/6
111-terstorm1012=16/9/4
112-Recurve=26/12/5=(Preliminary) 23/11/3=(Final) 5/14/2006
113-EDR1222=14/6/3=(Preliminary) 14/7/4=(Final) 5/2/06
114-jdray=19/10/5=(Preliminary) 18/9/5=(Final) 5/2/06
115-zoeyann=21/12/5
116-pojo=19/12/6
117-LSU_Weatherguy=16/12/7
118-Cookiely=19/10/6
119-cinlfla=18/13/7
120-Beer980=20/11/5
121-LaPlaceFF=22/11/5
122-Tampa Bay Hurricane=16/12/9
123-Evil Jeremy=19/11/7 (Preliminary) 18/9/5=(Final) 5/22/06
124-Tstormwatcher=19/10/5
125-coriolis=21/10/5
126-meteorologyman=27/14/7=(Preliminary) 30/20/12=(Final) 5/18/06
127-jusforsean=24/14/7
128-Downdraft=18/9/6
129-Camille_2_Katrina=12/5/2
130-Destruction5=18/11/5
131-Trader Ron=16/9/4
132-28 Storms=20/10/7
133-Tommedic=22/11/6
134-Windtalker1=23/12/8
135-Josephine96=19/10/6
136-Truqunzn=29/16/10
137-senorpepr=18/10/5
138-CronkPSU=21/14/4
139-YankeeGirl=18/11/5
140-Canelaw99=18/7/3
141-mempho=22/16/11
142-WeatherEmperor=18/8/5
143-RQSTR=23/14/9
144-Air Force Met=18/10/5
145-deltadog03=20/13/6
146-baw_es=15/11/5
147-magwitch=28/15/6
148-thunderchief=17/10/5
149-BiloxiBacon=14/7/4
150-m_ru=27/17/10
151-dhweather=16/11/5
152-Old-TimeCane=19/8/5
153-chadtm80=18/11/5
154-jschlitz=17/12/6
155-T genius=18/8/4
156-fwbbreeze=17/7/5
157-Stratusxpeye=17/12/5
158-wlfpack81=18/11/7
159-raisinsnacks=15/7/3
160-Thunder44=18/10/4
161- Regit=22/13/6
162-Pebbles=17/9/4
163-drudd1=20/14/7
164-apocalypt-flyer=19/11/6
165-Weather Watcher=19/8/4
166-P.K.=18/12/6
167-Loring=18/9/4
168-vacanechaser=17/12/6
169-skywarn=19/12/7
170-PTrackerLA=19/10/6
171-mvtrucking=20/9/4
172-Wnghs2007=18/12/6
173-wxman57=15/8/4
174-Hyperstorm=14/9/4
175-GalvestonDuck=17/10/4
176-milwaukeebrian=19/11/5
177-rainshine=19/9/6
178-Aquawind=15/9/5
179-wz247=20/11/6
180-Maxibide=16/12/5
181-Tampa God=21/15/7

[southerngale]

I never thought this season was going to be like last year. I find it hard to believe that anyone did since last year was such an anomaly. Perhaps wishful thinking among those who like to see such extreme, devastating events, but I doubt anyone really thought it would be that active.

With that said, I did/do think it will be an active year and my prediction back in April was 18/9/5. I hope I'm way off, on the high side, but it's only July 12th, so some of the "season bust" and "season cancel" posts are quite annoying and have no basis. Only July 12th. It's not supposed to be active yet.

Btw, welcome to Storm2k.

[gopherfan21]

Thank you. One of my biggest irks are the people who keep saying "season cancel" etc....but at the same time, I'm irked by people who think it will be super active and still say "oh, wait until august!"

I think 1995 and 2005 both proved that to have a hyperactive season, you really need an active July. This is not happening.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Now that I think of it, my prediction was a little too high now I'm starting to think around 15 named storms compared to the 20 named storms I predicted earlier.

[feederband]

I'll tell you how I fee about my numbers in January..

[cycloneye]

My numbers look good as the season is going in a normal way.

Welcome to storm2k.Any questions that you may have,please dont hesitate and ask them.

[WxGuy1]

Yeah hi I've been lurking this forum for quite some time and decided to finally register and post....I have a big question.

I remember reading through the season prediction thread earlier and noticed that many many people predicted 20+ named storms, even as many as 30.

I would like to know how these people feel about the season now, since obviously this season is not going to be like last year. I'd also like to know how they feel about their previous prediction and what they feel they should have done differently and maybe avoid for next time.

Thanks.

In all honesty, and in no offense to any member of this board, I think very few people have the skill to really make a season-long forecast. I think of lot of people read the NHC and CSU season forecast, and 'adjust' it based on 'hunches'. Season forecasts are really better off it were limit the choices to "below average, average, or above average", since we really don't have the knowledge to get a whole lot more specific. Sure, folks who spend weeks and months looking at data, trends, global forecasts, etc, can make a reasonable forecast for things like major hurricanes, but I doubt many folks on here do that. Note: I don't consider myself anywhere near qualified to make a season forecast (thus the reason I refrained from posting one).

The only forecast that I would give even a passing thought of are those from NHC and CSU (and maybe a few ST2K members -- a couple of which are NHC mets, professors, etc, themselves). This isn't ripping on anyone, but hunches and hype-following aren't scientificaly-objective methods for forecasts. To reiterate -- I don't consider myself qualified to make a forecast. Perhaps it's fun to make guesses, but I strong urge against giving those any weight.

[KWT]

My numbers are too high, don't know why i went so high but hindsight is a great thing I suppose!
I'm personally more intrested in the ACe. Presentlu I'm thinking somewhere in the 125-145 range at the moment, with 15 storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 majors, so still quite high but nothing compared to my first two guesses.

WxGuy1, I totally agree with that post!

[whereverwx]

59 people are predicting 20 or more storms.

The numbers range from 11 to 30; I think someone will be right this year.

[cycloneye]

59 people are predicting 20 or more storms.

The numbers range from 11 to 30; I think someone will be right this year.

On november 30th we will know which member(s) came the most close to what the 2006 season brought and you will bring me the stats at that time.

[dwg71]

I would say the average prediction was about 20 -I would say based on the season so far, that number would drop to about 17. 04 should show us that June and July "don't a season make".

I was out of pocket prior to season, my prediction was 17/9/3 - I would not change them at this time. Its all a crap shoot.

[docjoe]

[quote="Aquawind"]Welcome fellow Gopher fan!

Another Gopher fan here....although not Minnesota (I went to Auburn). My high school, Hueytown High, used the Golden Gophers as our mascot. I was always told that the guy that picked it way back in the day was from Minnesota.

docjoe

[southerngale]

WxGuy1, I totally agree with what you said. I simply guessed at my prediction and I'm confident that everyone knows that and nobody gives my prediction any weight. We've been guessing on here for years, but I'm certain that we all look to the experts' forecast numbers differently than those guesses by members. But even so, nobody knows exactly what it will be. I enjoy reading the pro's forecasts though.

[Stephanie]

I think that it is fun for all of the members to "try their hand" at forecasting a season or a storm. This website is here for people to learn as well.

I guessed 16 storms and though it hasn't been "active" per se, anything is possible, but I wouldn't bet the farm on my prediction either.

[cycloneye]

I think that it is fun for all of the members to "try their hand" at forecasting a season or a storm. This website is here for people to learn as well.

I guessed 16 storms and though it hasn't been "active" per se, anything is possible, but I wouldn't bet the farm on my prediction either.

Yes Steph,I do this annual poll in not a scientific way but for a little fun with the guesses to see which members come the most close to the season actual numbers.In the poll are were invited to participate from the less knowlegable to the pro mets.

For the new members,the 2007 official poll starts on March 15

[gopherfan21]

Glad, and somewhat surprised also, to see fellow Gopher fans here!