Ex-96L Invest,Comments

[Aric Dunn]

There are reports in barbados right now of near 30mph Pressures are still fairly high but have fallen from about 1016 to 1015 the convection is pulsing right now but should return .. as the system stays just far enough south to avoid the 20 to 40 kt wind shear and sit under about 15 or so... and condition may briefly improve in the short term as it moves a little further west where the wind shear turns a little more SW-erly. the circulation is small but is also holding to gether and becoming a little more symetrical. So we will have to watch it as it passes through the islands tonigh. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

[drezee]

You haven't read many post-landfall HPC Advisories, have you?

There, it is still classified as a tropical depression until it has extratropical characteristics.

Key word in your statement is "HPC"...Thanks for proving my point

[HurricaneHunter914]

I thought tropical waves needed an LLC, convection, and TD force winds to be classified as a TD?

[Derek Ortt]

this is not close to a TD, not by a long shot and should not become one anytime soon, if at all

[gopherfan21]

Key word in your statement is "HPC"...Thanks for proving my point

Except it is still classified by the NHC as a tropical depression, they just have the HPC write the advisories. The HPC has no authority on classifying tropical systems.

[drezee]

Key word in your statement is "HPC"...Thanks for proving my point

Except it is still classified by the NHC as a tropical depression, they just have the HPC write the advisories. The HPC has no authority on classifying tropical systems.

Let me send you on a quest...find a system that the NHC has classified as a TD with less than 15kt winds (20mph in an advisory). Happy hunting...

[Aric Dunn]

But the problem is that its forward speed is creating worse conditions for itself and if we were to see any real development with this system it will have to slow down some .... and normally the eastern carribean is the place where things slow down... also one might argue that historically the eastrern carribean is not favorable for development with out some sort of existing LLC or system well in this case we do have at least that ... A LLC and a little convection.. So there is still a slight possiblilty of development in the short term until it hits about 65 to 70 west.. and as long as it does not move any farther north.

[Patrick99]

We've seen better.....we've seen worse.

As for the E. Car. "dead zone," when do we finally disregard that so called conventional wisdom? It all seems to depend on whether there's a big TUTT there or not. Sometimes there is, sometimes there isn't. If there isn't, stuff has just as good a shot there as anywhere else.

[linkerweather]

Key word in your statement is "HPC"...Thanks for proving my point

Except it is still classified by the NHC as a tropical depression, they just have the HPC write the advisories. The HPC has no authority on classifying tropical systems.

Let me send you on a quest...find a system that the NHC has classified as a TD with less than 15kt winds (20mph in an advisory). Happy hunting...

I think you guys are splitting hairs. Typically the NHC will NOT initiate the issuance of advisories on a TC with winds less than 25 knots. It still could be technically a depression however. Here is an example from 2000, the last NHC advisory had max winds at 20 knots which is 22.3 mph

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2000/ma ... 0.007.html

[gopherfan21]

In the beginning of a TC's life, the NHC really doesn't classify below 30 MPH.

Post landfall TC's, however, are classified and written advisories on by the NHC until it reaches ~25 MPH in intensity. After this point, the advisory writing is handed over to the HPC, however it is still classified by the NHC as a tropical depression (see Tropical Cyclone Reports)

I honestly don't get what is so difficult to understand, unless you just want to flame me for giving you a minor correction.

[cycloneye]

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. EARLY THIS MORNING CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED AROUND A
1014 MB LOW LOCATED ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 56W-58W.
THIS WAVE REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.


2 PM Discussion.

[linkerweather]

In the beginning of a TC's life, the NHC really doesn't classify below 30 MPH.

Post landfall TC's, however, are classified and written advisories on by the NHC until it reaches ~25 MPH in intensity. After this point, the advisory writing is handed over to the HPC, however it is still classified by the NHC as a tropical depression (see Tropical Cyclone Reports)

I honestly don't get what is so difficult to understand, unless you just want to flame me for giving you a minor correction.

Gopher fan,
Your stated definitoin earlier was correct. See NHC FAQ corteousy of Chris Landsea http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A1.html

And since you mention minor corrections...
it is only handed off the the HPC if it is over the US mainland. If it is out to sea, the Ocean Prediction CEnter(OPC) will include the info in its High Seas Forecast.

[gopherfan21]

^right, I was just speaking of the HPC and landfalling tropical cyclones mainly because those are more readily available and posted.

[Aric Dunn]

this is a shear tendency map show over the past 24 hours the decreasing shear ahead of but south of 16n that is the marginally favorable area that is so well put by the NHC... that is it ..that is its only chance unless the shear abates ( which i have seen happen) in the 24hrs. otherwise this thing will not form until maybe it gets to the western carribean.. and only if the LLC survives.

[Aric Dunn]

ooppss http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html here is the map

[wxman57]

Here's the latest GARP satellite image with surface plots. Note that the 25kt wind at Barbados is blowing away from the mid-level "center" of the disturbance. Looks like the thunderstorms collapsed and pushed an outflow boundary through Barbados. Certainly no LLC associated with the wave:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96Lc.gif

[Aric Dunn]

I do agree , on the art of the outflow from the colapsing storm but it did not disrupt the over all LLC.. and besides if that was the case then the entire structure of any tropical system would be in jeporady if all of a sudden the downburst ceased to happen... and if you did not notice .. that the satellite image and the time the observation was taken maybe of such that it gives the appearance that there is no LLC ... because to me if the station plots were to late or the satellite to early or vise versa then the postion on that image of the LLC and observation would not coinside correctly and would give a false realtime wind direction..

[wxman57]

I do agree , on the art of the outflow from the colapsing storm but it did not disrupt the over all LLC.. and besides if that was the case then the entire structure of any tropical system would be in jeporady if all of a sudden the downburst ceased to happen... and if you did not notice .. that the satellite image and the time the observation was taken maybe of such that it gives the appearance that there is no LLC ... because to me if the station plots were to late or the satellite to early or vise versa then the postion on that image of the LLC and observation would not coinside correctly and would give a false realtime wind direction..

One point I was making was that there is no LLC to disrupt.

[Aric Dunn]

I disagree, the surface obs in the area as well as satellite . dipict a LLC .... weak but still there

[Thunder44]

The circulation we are seeing on visibility imagery maybe mid to low-level, but there doesn't appear to be any close to the surface. The circulation assoicated with the wave is moving now just moving to the south of Barbados without much change in wind direction. Winds still coming out straight out the east with very little change in pressure.