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senorpepr
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#181 Postby senorpepr » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:04 pm

Opal storm wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Wow, just the planning of a Recon flight means the NHC sees something in this blob...
I agree,I don't think they would plan sending recon in if this had no chance at developing.


Remember, they try to get the crew as much time as possible to prepare before going. The crew needs at least 24 hours notice before take off.
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#182 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:07 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

96L may be in a bad place for development now, but if it can make its way into the Western Carib then it may have another chance to develop.
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#183 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:12 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 122108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...IT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SURFACE
PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINAL FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#184 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:21 pm

Well I find the 4pm outlook interesting in that they (NHC) don't completely rule out development of either two disturbances in the tropics.
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#185 Postby Jam151 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 122108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...IT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SURFACE
PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINAL FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN


crazy...
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#186 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:24 pm

Jam151 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 122108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...IT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SURFACE
PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINAL FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN


crazy...


Why crazy?
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#187 Postby Jam151 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:26 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Jam151 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 122108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...IT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SURFACE
PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINAL FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN


crazy...


Why crazy?


Not going any further.
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#188 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:29 pm

well NHC are the experts so conditions are marginally favorable...
development's not impossible...it can't be ruled out
It will depend on the upper level conditions (such as shear)
Is shear forecasted to decrease over the Caribbean and GOM
anytime soon? If so, then there will probably be some development; if not, then there will probably not be any development.

But I would like to know from anyone with knowledge about
shear conditions:
Is shear forecasted to decrease over the Caribbean and GOM
anytime soon? If so, when?
I would just like to know this because I am always watching the
tropics...
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#189 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:29 pm

Jam151 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
Jam151 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 122108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...IT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SURFACE
PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINAL FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN


crazy...


Why crazy?


Not going any futher.


Well obviously they see some potential in both disturbances we are missing on this board.
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#190 Postby Opal storm » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:33 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

96L may be in a bad place for development now, but if it can make its way into the Western Carib then it may have another chance to develop.
I agree.If this can make it to the western Carib then it could get interesting.
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#191 Postby Jam151 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:33 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:well NHC are the experts so conditions are marginally favorable...
development's not impossible...it can't be ruled out
It will depend on the upper level conditions (such as shear)
Is shear forecasted to decrease over the Caribbean and GOM
anytime soon? If so, then there will probably be some development; if not, then there will probably not be any development.

But I would like to know from anyone with knowledge about
shear conditions:
Is shear forecasted to decrease over the Caribbean and GOM
anytime soon? If so, when?
I would just like to know this because I am always watching the
tropics...


Models show no decrease in shear if anything they show an increase.
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#192 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:33 pm

That's not the full Outlook pasted above --

ABNT20 KNHC 122108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...IT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SURFACE
PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINAL FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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#193 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:35 pm

Windsurfer_NYC wrote:That's not the full Outlook pasted above --

ABNT20 KNHC 122108
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...IT COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SURFACE
PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINAL FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THE AREA...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN


The other part was posted here.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 4&start=80
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#194 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:37 pm

Jam151 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:well NHC are the experts so conditions are marginally favorable...
development's not impossible...it can't be ruled out
It will depend on the upper level conditions (such as shear)
Is shear forecasted to decrease over the Caribbean and GOM
anytime soon? If so, then there will probably be some development; if not, then there will probably not be any development.

But I would like to know from anyone with knowledge about
shear conditions:
Is shear forecasted to decrease over the Caribbean and GOM
anytime soon? If so, when?
I would just like to know this because I am always watching the
tropics...


Models show no decrease in shear if anything they show an increase.



The models are sometimes wrong.
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#195 Postby Jam151 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:39 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Jam151 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:well NHC are the experts so conditions are marginally favorable...
development's not impossible...it can't be ruled out
It will depend on the upper level conditions (such as shear)
Is shear forecasted to decrease over the Caribbean and GOM
anytime soon? If so, then there will probably be some development; if not, then there will probably not be any development.

But I would like to know from anyone with knowledge about
shear conditions:
Is shear forecasted to decrease over the Caribbean and GOM
anytime soon? If so, when?
I would just like to know this because I am always watching the
tropics...


Models show no decrease in shear if anything they show an increase.



The models are sometimes wrong.


Wow i give up... :idea:
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#196 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:44 pm

Jam151 wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:well NHC are the experts so conditions are marginally favorable...
development's not impossible...it can't be ruled out
It will depend on the upper level conditions (such as shear)
Is shear forecasted to decrease over the Caribbean and GOM
anytime soon? If so, then there will probably be some development; if not, then there will probably not be any development.

But I would like to know from anyone with knowledge about
shear conditions:
Is shear forecasted to decrease over the Caribbean and GOM
anytime soon? If so, when?
I would just like to know this because I am always watching the
tropics...


Models show no decrease in shear if anything they show an increase.


Thanks for the response...
I'll keep watching it but I don't expect much to occur due to
the shear over that area...I am not an expert though...we'll
see what happens...shear is making development very difficult
for this system.
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#197 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 12, 2006 4:57 pm

It's funny how "some" of us knock the NHC when they don't say something has the possibility of development even though everything looks good in their opinion for development and then question them (NHC)when they do indicate the possibility is there even though they believe otherwise. I guess "some" of you have forgotten the many storms that have developed in the tropics despite adverse (shear & extremely dry air)conditions. I personally stopped questioning the NHC several years ago when I got burned doing what I just posted, questioning their knowledge. Hey I'm NOT saying these two systems will develop but only stating the NHC thinks the possibility IS there so why argue it.
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#198 Postby tailgater » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:00 pm

Well this vortex( I'll call it for arguments sake) seems to be moving a little south of due west. So even if it did survive the shear it would be dealing with Central America right after the Shear/Dry Air Zone.
Upper winds
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF
Mid level winds

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... midshr.GIF

This is the best organized wave yet, that I can recall this year. Maybe a sign of things to come.
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#199 Postby Jam151 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:03 pm

Stormcenter wrote:It's funny how "some" of us knock the NHC when they don't say something has the possibility of development even though everything looks good in their opinion for development and then question them (NHC)when they do indicate the possibility is there even though they believe otherwise. I guess "some" of you have forgotten the many storms that have developed in the tropics despite adverse (shear & extremely dry air)conditions. I personally stopped questioning the NHC several years ago when I got burned doing what I just posted, questioning their knowledge. Hey I'm NOT saying these two systems will develop but only stating the NHC thinks the possibility IS there so why argue it.


Don't want to go into that subject, i'm just gonna say that I disagree.
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#200 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:07 pm

Too many people from "development to poof" are still focused on the TWO. It's just a brief statment. Why anyone from either side tries to read more out of it than what is really there, I have no idea.

Read the TWD for a better description.
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