Tropical Depression Carlotta (04E) in EPAC

[HURAKAN]

Wahooo pay backs a B#$$ this year for the Atlatnic for beating the Eastern Pacific last year.

Don't worry, the Atlantic will fight back in a few weeks. The EPAC has the advantage to go and take the lead first, but the Atlantic has an ever greater advantage by retaking the lead later. Some say that the one that laughs later laughs better!!!

I did a mini-research and look at these:

Atlantic:
1944 - 2002 (NHC)
Average: 10 TS, 6 H, 3 MH

1995 - 2005
Average: 15 TS, 8 H, 4 MH

EPAC:
1966 - 1996 (NHC)
Average: 16 TS, 9 H, 4 MH

1995 - 2005
Average: 13 TS, 7 H, 4 MH

[cycloneye]

12/1200 UTC 14.3N 104.8W T2.5/2.5 CARLOTTA -- East Pacific Ocean

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
800 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006

CARLOTTA IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING...WITH SOME ILL-DEFINED BANDS
BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THERE IS AMPLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA
BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS STILL RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS
FORECAST FIELDS...INDICATES 13-15 KT OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OVER CARLOTTA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS IS PROBABLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. HOWEVER...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER CYCLONE IS NOT VERY
SIGNIFICANT AND THE SHIPS SHEAR VALUES ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE HIGH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CARLOTTA TO BECOME A HURRICANE
WITHIN 24 HOURS AND TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN
ABOUT 3 DAYS WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS
NOT YET WELL-DEFINED. THE STEERING SCENARIO IS A TYPICAL ONE FOR
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. CARLOTTA IS EMBEDDED IN THE STEERING
FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS A RESULT
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS
3-5. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 14.5N 105.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 15.0N 107.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 15.6N 109.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 16.2N 111.3W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W 80 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 17.0N 116.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 119.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 19.0N 121.0W 35 KT

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

CARLOTTA IS HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE!! Possibly Biggeer than Florida!

[AnnularCane]

Carly looks like she wants to eat Bud for breakfast.

[HurricaneHunter914]

That would be funny if she did. It would be better than eating crow.

[Epsilon_Fan]

Carlotta is looking better than Bud right now...

[Weatherfreak000]

Wahooo pay backs a B#$$ this year for the Atlatnic for beating the Eastern Pacific last year.

Woooahhhh we're only in July and just earlier you were whining about the EPAC not having ANY activity.



Interesting how things change,


I'm sure if we see many storms come August your going to be commenting upon how the Atlantic is beating the EPAC but honestly, does it REALLY even matter?

[Cyclenall]

Carlotta is looking better than Bud right now...

I don't think so, Bud is about to show is new eye and possibly get stronger doing so (and better looking too). He is much smaller (hurricane Andrew small) then Carlotta but he looks better. Carlotta is very large and strengthening nicely. I hope she bombs.

Carlotta won't eat Bud because they are too far apart. Sorry, not this time. The NHC has said this during the past few days.

New % chance of this becoming:

Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 75%
Major Hurricane: 28%
Category 5 Hurricane: 1%

I was correct about TD4-E becoming a TS in no time. Rapid Strengthening is possible tonight IMO. Bud's sister is looking good.

First % chance of this strengthening:

Slowly: 33%
Steady: 55%
Quickly: 70%
Rapidly: 48%

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING GREAT!!!

[Cyclenall]

It's look's excellent indeed. There was something I was going to say but I forgot until now:

If this Carlotta girl wraps around and starts turning then it's bomb time. I see some slight turning and wrapping of the convection which will strengthen it very quickly.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/vis-l.jpg

Looks like Carlotta is about to whip Bud with her outerband to the north of her.

[cycloneye]

12/1800 UTC 15.1N 106.2W T3.0/3.0 CARLOTTA -- East Pacific Ocean

[clfenwi]

12/1800 UTC 15.1N 106.2W T3.0/3.0 CARLOTTA

TPPZ1 KGWC 121901
A. TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA (FOUR-E)
B. 12/1731Z (49)
C. 15.2N/8
D. 106.4W/1
E. FIVE/GOES11
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/18HRS -12/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .45 ON LOG10
SPIRAL. ADDED 0.5 FOR WHITE YIELDING A DT OF
3.0. FINAL T BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

AODT: 6.0 (CLEAR EYE)

PRATO/KAMINSKI

TAFB went with 3.5 (55 knots) for their estimate.

-- Once again me and cycloneye are thinking about the same thing at the same time...

[Derek Ortt]

Objective DT at 6.0


shows why that is not to be used UNTIL there is actually an eye

[Thunder44]

NRL now has 50kts for this storm.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Cyclenall]

NRL now has 50kts for this storm.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Does anyone else think that's too low? Just like Bud, I say 5 knots stronger then that. Also, you know what's scary? Carlotta is doing the almost the same thing as Bud yesterday!! Not talking about how she looks, but how she is strengthening. Bud at this time was 50 knots as well. Bud became a TS 6 hours after he became a depression, the same thing with Carlotta!

BTW, is anyone watching the Blob of convection behind Carlotta?

[cycloneye]

WTPZ24 KNHC 122032
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2006

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.4W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 106.4W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 105.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.3N 110.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.7N 112.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 19.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 106.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

741
WTPZ44 KNHC 122032
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
200 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006

THE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND
BANDING FEATURES ARE NOW EVIDENT. CARLOTTA IS A LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE THAT CURRENTLY LACKS MUCH OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION VALUES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA. A WARM WATER/LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR CARLOTTA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS
PREDICTED...IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY
FORECAST GUIDANCE...THE SO-CALLED ICON. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD I EXPECT CARLOTTA TO BE TRAVERSING SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER
WATERS...AND TO BE WEAKENING RATHER RAPIDLY.

THE CENTER IS EASIER TO LOCATE ON VISIBLE IMAGES...NONETHELESS THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...290/12. A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CARLOTTA...WITH ITS
AXIS ALONG 30N-35N...SHOULD PROVIDE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING
REGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS UNREALISTIC. IN PARTICULAR...THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE
GLOBAL MODEL INTEGRATION DEPICTS A DECOUPLING OF CARLOTTA BEGINNING
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH THE 500 MB CENTER MOVING OFF TO THE WEST
AND LEAVING THE SURFACE CENTER MEANDERING AND WEAKENING NEAR 110W
LONGITUDE. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNREALISTIC FOR SUCH A LARGE
DEVELOPING CYCLONE...AND SO THE U.K. MODEL IS DISREGARDED FOR THIS
PACKAGE.
.
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 15.3N 106.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 15.8N 108.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 16.3N 110.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 16.7N 112.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 17.0N 114.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 19.0N 122.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[JonathanBelles]

bud and carlotta are so much alike!

[wxmann_91]

This storm is large and probably won't strengthen quickly until a CDO/inner core forms. That won't happen until the northerly shear abates.