Ex-96L Invest,Comments

Extremeweatherguy · #201 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:14 pm

I predict at least one TD within 5 days.

#202 Postby **drezee** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 5:17 pm

#203 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:11 pm

I have been at work most of the day and have not really gotten a chance to look at 96L.

Is there an LLC with this thing. It looks like we got some swirling at the surface and convection trying to develope but, just can't because of the shear.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

12 N and 60 W
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc06/A ... N-575W.jpg

The 205 Disco.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. EARLY THIS MORNING CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED AROUND A
1014 MB LOW LOCATED ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 56W-58W.
THIS WAVE REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

Waiting for the 805 TWD.

#204 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 7:20 pm

Wow I saw that without looking at the twd map...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

WindRunner · #205 Postby **WindRunner** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:05 pm

8:05 TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
1014 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR BARBADOS AT 12N. THIS WAVE
REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. PRESENTLY
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 58W-61W.

Marginal is better than just plain-out bad :roll:

#206 Postby **abajan** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:15 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:oh yeah .. i have doing a little research and the reporting station in barbados is at least at the surface but up against and the central mountain ... and the worst thing is its on the south side and any NE NNE N NW winds would give a terribly false reading and does not really help with a system moving to the south of barbados..i also looked what ever records i could find from previous observations from TC that have passed the area before and i found somthing intresting the wind direction throughout a passing of a TC barely changed...

Excuse me... but I live in Barbados and there are no mountains in that area or anywhere else on the island! In fact, the first thing that strikes visitors from most neighboring islands is how flat most of Barbados is.

The highest point is about 1115 ft from sea level (a mere ant hill when compared to the real deal in the neighboring islands) and is quite far from the airport where the reporting station is. I haven't visited the airport recently but from what I can recall it sits on a plateau (about 150 ft above sea level) with some minor hills some miles to its north.

Extremeweatherguy · #207 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:20 pm

abajan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:oh yeah .. i have doing a little research and the reporting station in barbados is at least at the surface but up against and the central mountain ... and the worst thing is its on the south side and any NE NNE N NW winds would give a terribly false reading and does not really help with a system moving to the south of barbados..i also looked what ever records i could find from previous observations from TC that have passed the area before and i found somthing intresting the wind direction throughout a passing of a TC barely changed...

Excuse me... but I live in Barbados and there are no mountains in that area or anywhere else on the island! In fact, the first thing that strikes visitors from most neighboring islands is how flat most of Barbados is.

The highest point is about 1115 ft from sea level (a mere ant hill when compared to the real deal in the neighboring islands) and is quite far from the airport where the reporting station is. I haven't visited the airport recently but from what I can recall it sits on a plateau (about 150 ft above sea level) with some minor hills some miles to its north.

I've been to Barbados many times and I remember it having quite a few hilly/mountainous areas. For example, how do you explain this picture:

It is from this website: http://www.ferienobjekte-karibik.de/barbados.html

Overall though, I agree that it is not as mountainous as neighboring islands.

#208 Postby **abajan** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 8:32 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
abajan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:oh yeah .. i have doing a little research and the reporting station in barbados is at least at the surface but up against and the central mountain ... and the worst thing is its on the south side and any NE NNE N NW winds would give a terribly false reading and does not really help with a system moving to the south of barbados..i also looked what ever records i could find from previous observations from TC that have passed the area before and i found somthing intresting the wind direction throughout a passing of a TC barely changed...

Excuse me... but I live in Barbados and there are no mountains in that area or anywhere else on the island! In fact, the first thing that strikes visitors from most neighboring islands is how flat most of Barbados is.

The highest point is about 1115 ft from sea level (a mere ant hill when compared to the real deal in the neighboring islands) and is quite far from the airport where the reporting station is. I haven't visited the airport recently but from what I can recall it sits on a plateau (about 150 ft above sea level) with some minor hills some miles to its north.

I've been to Barbados many times and I remember it having quite a few hilly/mountainous areas. For example, how do you explain this picture:

It is from this website: http://www.ferienobjekte-karibik.de/barbados.html

Overall though, I agree that it is not as mountainous as neighboring islands.

That's not a picture of Barbados! I'm guessing it's St. Lucia, judging from the shape of the mountain which looks like one of the Pitons. The Pitons are 2 very prominent mountains in that island.

Granted, Barbados has hilly areas but I don't think most people who live in other parts of the world that have mountains would call anything here mountains.

I guess it's all subjective because there's no actual height that classifies what is and isn't a mountain.

#209 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 9:51 pm

Here's a GARP shot of sfc obs in the eastern Caribbean. No sign of 96L passing through. Winds getting increasingly hostile in its path. Development chances slim.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/96Ld.gif

tropicana · #210 Postby **tropicana** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:50 pm

I went to school and lived on Barbados for a year at one time! Barbados is so great!

-justin-

NONAME · #211 Postby **NONAME** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:56 pm

Ok Lets Get Back To The Topic

Website · #212 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:57 pm

The thing looks downright sad right now.

whereverwx · #213 Postby **whereverwx** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:57 pm

NONAME wrote:Ok Lets Get Back To The Topic

What's there to discuss?

#214 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 10:59 pm

calamity wrote:
NONAME wrote:Ok Lets Get Back To The Topic

What's there to discuss?

EPAC & WPAC!!!

cheezyWXguy · #215 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:02 pm

hey calamity, whats the storm in ur avatar?

whereverwx · #216 Postby **whereverwx** » Wed Jul 12, 2006 11:08 pm

HURAKAN wrote:EPAC & WPAC!!!

I agree; there are "actual" tropical cyclones over there--not just sheared-spinning clouds.

cheezywxman wrote:hey calamity, whats the storm in ur avatar?

Hurricane Mitch... :wink:

Aquawind · #217 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 4:51 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130919
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THIS
AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

#218 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:26 am

This is like the little engine that could.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/196.jpg
I know there's big time shear ahead but we've been saying that for days now. Does anyone have the steering flow map for this area? 8-)

boca · #219 Postby **boca** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:36 am

Wave is looking a little better this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

Thunder44 · #220 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:42 am

boca wrote:Wave is looking a little better this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

Yes, only to probably look worse this afternoon. There seems to be too much shear in the Carribean to let this thing develop.

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