All this shear an indication of El Nino

boca · #1 Postby **boca** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:46 am

This is just a question is this shear an early indicator of El Nino forming late in the season or Its July and shear this high is normal.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:49 am

This is a normal July pattern.No el nino during this season according to the Australians as I posted their update for ENSO yesterday.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 04#1375804

boca · #3 Postby **boca** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:51 am

Thanks Luis didn't see the thread.

canegrl04 · #4 Postby **canegrl04** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:53 am

The 2000,and 2001 seasons had mucho shear in the Atlantic and it had nothing to do with El Nino

bucman1 · #5 Postby **bucman1** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:53 am

Boca-Funny you bring that up,I was thinking the same thing this morning.

I wanted to know if we are are still in a Neutral/Lanina pattern.

boca · #6 Postby **boca** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:57 am

Its still nuetral according to the Aussie's.

Frank2 · #7 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:17 am

Just my opinion, but, back when the term "El Nino" was new (almost 25 years ago), high shear at any time of the year was directly connected with this feature, and though it's true that higher shear values are found in the tropics during July, you have to wonder if some would say that it's just a continued lack of complete knowledge of how this very complicated process works (don't forget that until 25 years ago, only a few knew of this process at all).

Interesting to note that the same thing happened during July of last year (again, July is the month for shear), and it also reappeared in October (perhaps a seasonal issue, but, hard to say), and, as Dr. Lyons has mentioned, the upper level winds have been very unfavorable since the start of the season, so, it's very possible that some sort of negative process is influencing the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.

Frank

Bane · #8 Postby **Bane** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:19 am

It's also July. No one should expect anything to form until August. Last year was an anomoly.

boca · #9 Postby **boca** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:22 am

August will be the true indicator of this season, it would be nice to have a below average season for a change. Shear is our friend.

Frank2 · #10 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:23 am

What just crossed my mind is the fact that, considering we're at the mid-point of July with only one weak tropical storm of record in the Atlantic, that, the season so far, at least statistically, is where it should be - for a statistically average season (one or two systems in June, and none in the first few weeks of July).

Impossible to say if this will continue, but, it's interesting to note...

Frank

P.S. If this "average" trend continues, it would be below even the more-conservative totals that CSU or the NHC predicted for this season...

P.P.S. I'm not sure when CSU comes out with another forecast, but, it's possible that they may adjust their totals...

x-y-no · #11 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:47 am

Frank2 wrote:What just crossed my mind is the fact that, considering we're at the mid-point of July with only one weak tropical storm of record in the Atlantic, that, the season so far, at least statistically, is where it should be - for a statistically average season (one or two systems in June, and none in the first few weeks of July).

Impossible to say if this will continue, but, it's interesting to note...

Frank

P.S. If this "average" trend continues, it would be below even the more-conservative totals that CSU or the NHC predicted for this season...

P.P.S. I'm not sure when CSU comes out with another forecast, but, it's possible that they may adjust their totals...

You're right that statistically this season is normal so far and that if that normal trend continued then all the official season predictions would be way high ... but ...

I don't see that any of the fundamental factors which led to those predictions of an active season have changed. We still have relatively high SSTs, we still look to have a neutral ENSO through the season, I'm not aware of any radical departure from expectations in terms of the North Atlantic pressure pattern. In short, I see no reason we won't still have the expected very active season.

I'd be delighted if my 18/11/6 prediction turns out to be much too high, but I don't think it will.

Scorpion · #12 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:51 am

However remember that 2004 did not begin until July 31. It was anything but normal.

#13 Postby **hial2** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:59 am

[quote="Frank2"]Just my opinion, but, back when the term "El Nino" was new (almost 25 years ago),

I thought that "El Nino" term was ancient..Please advise..I don't want to sound dumb when/if someone asks me..

MJS

x-y-no · #14 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 10:07 am

hial2 wrote:
I thought that "El Nino" term was ancient..Please advise..I don't want to sound dumb when/if someone asks me..

MJS

The term dates back to the 19th century when Peruvian fishermen noticed a periodic phenomenon of severe decline in fish stocks, usually peaking around Christmas-time.

It wasn't until the 1970's or '80s though that we gained a real understanding of the phenomenon and it's basin-wide effect.

Jim Cantore · #15 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:12 am

Bane wrote:It's also July. No one should expect anything to form until August. Last year was an anomoly.

Anything can form at anytime

Frank2 · #16 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:19 am

That's right - the Christian term for El Nino is fairly old, but, it was Dr. Gray that made this expression well known, in a meteorolgical sense, over 25 years ago.

At that time some in meteorology felt his theories to be pretty far out there, but, since then most have come to accept it as truth.

One morning in the early '80s, I was asked to pick him up at his hotel, but I can't remember what I said on the short drive back to the building - probably something like, "Nice day today, isn't it?"

Frank

Jim Hughes · #17 Postby **Jim Hughes** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:43 pm

x-y-no wrote:
hial2 wrote:
I thought that "El Nino" term was ancient..Please advise..I don't want to sound dumb when/if someone asks me..

MJS

The term dates back to the 19th century when Peruvian fishermen noticed a periodic phenomenon of severe decline in fish stocks, usually peaking around Christmas-time.

It wasn't until the 1970's or '80s though that we gained a real understanding of the phenomenon and it's basin-wide effect.

One of the first references I read about the El Nino was in a book by Nigel Calder. The name of the book slips my mind. I think it was published in the mid 70's and he briefly talked about the 72-73 El Nino. He was definitely ahead of the curve here.

The meteorological community really started to understand it's importance during the 82-83 event.

Bane · #18 Postby **Bane** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 7:28 am

Hurricane Floyd wrote:
Bane wrote:It's also July. No one should expect anything to form until August. Last year was an anomoly.

Anything can form at anytime

And that usually begins in August.

#19 Postby **OuterBanker** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:33 pm

Yep, this year is going to be a bust. Just like that other year that was predicted to be active but the first named stom wasn't until July 31, and the next storm wasn't named until Aug 9th. That was Alex and Bonnie, we all know how much a bust 2004 was. 2005 was very much an anomoly, most of us will never see a season again like it.

DESTRUCTION5 · #20 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:51 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Yep, this year is going to be a bust. Just like that other year that was predicted to be active but the first named stom wasn't until July 31, and the next storm wasn't named until Aug 9th. That was Alex and Bonnie, we all know how much a bust 2004 was. 2005 was very much an anomoly, most of us will never see a season again like it.

None of us will ever see it again IMO...

All this shear an indication of El Nino

All this shear an indication of El Nino

Who is online