Tropical Depression Bud (03E) in EPAC
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WTPZ23 KNHC 130836
TCMEP3
HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
0900 UTC THU JUL 13 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.5W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 125SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.5W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 119.8W
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.4N 122.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.5N 125.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.4N 128.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.9N 130.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 21.0N 140.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 20.5N 144.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 120.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WTPZ43 KNHC 130858
TCDEP3
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
200 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
BUD HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THE HURRICANE HAS
A WELL-DEFINED AND CLEAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 N MI DIAMETER...
SURROUNDED BY NEARLY A COMPLETE RING OF CLOUD TOPS NEAR
-70C...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 06Z OF 102-115 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
110 KT. MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS SEEMINGLY CANNOT LAST TOO MUCH
LONGER...HOWEVER...AS BUD IS QUICKLY CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM.
CONCURRENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0230Z
INDICATES THAT THE 34-KT WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED SOMEWHAT. SINCE
BUD IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WILL PROBABLY SPIN DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY OVER THE COOLER WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS
WHEN IT REACHES SSTS OF LESS THAN 24C. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST ANTICIPATES JUST A SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID DECLINE THAN THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUED BRISK FORWARD MOTION OF THE
STORM...BUT STILL KEEPS BUD A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE LAST 12 HOURS IS
290/15...ALTHOUGH MORE RECENTLY IT HAS BEEN TRENDING LEFT OF THAT
HEADING...OR MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 130W. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT
WEAKNESS TO BEGIN FILLING IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...ALLOWING THE RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD. ONCE THAT OCCURS AND BUD WEAKENS OVER COOLER
WATERS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD ALONG ABOUT 21N
LATITUDE...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. LEAVING OUT THE GFS THAT DOES NOT
REPRESENT THE CIRCULATION OF BUD VERY WELL...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL
MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY A LITTLE
FASTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0900Z 17.5N 120.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 18.4N 122.8W 100 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 125.6W 85 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 20.4N 128.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 20.9N 130.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 140.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 18/0600Z 20.5N 144.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
TCMEP3
HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
0900 UTC THU JUL 13 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.5W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 125SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 120.5W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 119.8W
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.4N 122.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.5N 125.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.4N 128.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.9N 130.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 21.0N 140.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 20.5N 144.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 120.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WTPZ43 KNHC 130858
TCDEP3
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
200 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
BUD HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THE HURRICANE HAS
A WELL-DEFINED AND CLEAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 N MI DIAMETER...
SURROUNDED BY NEARLY A COMPLETE RING OF CLOUD TOPS NEAR
-70C...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 06Z OF 102-115 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
110 KT. MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS SEEMINGLY CANNOT LAST TOO MUCH
LONGER...HOWEVER...AS BUD IS QUICKLY CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM.
CONCURRENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0230Z
INDICATES THAT THE 34-KT WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED SOMEWHAT. SINCE
BUD IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WILL PROBABLY SPIN DOWN FAIRLY
QUICKLY OVER THE COOLER WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS
WHEN IT REACHES SSTS OF LESS THAN 24C. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST ANTICIPATES JUST A SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID DECLINE THAN THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUED BRISK FORWARD MOTION OF THE
STORM...BUT STILL KEEPS BUD A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE LAST 12 HOURS IS
290/15...ALTHOUGH MORE RECENTLY IT HAS BEEN TRENDING LEFT OF THAT
HEADING...OR MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 130W. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT
WEAKNESS TO BEGIN FILLING IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...ALLOWING THE RIDGE
TO BUILD WESTWARD. ONCE THAT OCCURS AND BUD WEAKENS OVER COOLER
WATERS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD ALONG ABOUT 21N
LATITUDE...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. LEAVING OUT THE GFS THAT DOES NOT
REPRESENT THE CIRCULATION OF BUD VERY WELL...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL
MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY A LITTLE
FASTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0900Z 17.5N 120.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 18.4N 122.8W 100 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 19.5N 125.6W 85 KT
36HR VT 14/1800Z 20.4N 128.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 15/0600Z 20.9N 130.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 140.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 18/0600Z 20.5N 144.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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- Aquawind
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Geesh we have a long way to go on intensity forecasting.. This thing was initially forecast for 60kts.. Healthy looking hurricane alrighty..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg
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http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/sat_ir_p.gif
Intensity forecasting is about electrics.
For each degF drop in SSTs there is a one percent increase in resistance. However, the lack of conductivity can be made up by an increase in displacement current. Therefore, if there are a lot of local strikes, and otherwise no other path for the current to run--say high impedence values elsewhere--then even in colder oceans a storm may better organize cloud microphysics.
Elements of good conductive conditions otherwise exist for this storm. History of river changes to the Colorado outflow have been supported by essentially normal seasons following the interrupted seasons with examples of storms that landfell fairly far north. There is a rising SOI, and that means increases of conductivity to the east Pacific side. Strikes in the CONUS went to about 20,000 per hour during the peak of the afternoon and evening, and blow off from the 'C' storm to the Mexican mountains are not counted in those strike totals. The link above shows decent looking IR imagery of what certainly are thunderstorm activity in both Central and South America as well.
Because of the decarbonation of the Atlantic last year from the very active season, as well as the recent decarbonation of the West Pacific, it's also not surprising that there isn't much place for the displacement current to go--but to the EPAC.
BTW, here in Redding CA the teleconnection is such that immediately on the forming of these storms it dropped about 10-20 degF from what we have been seeing so far this summer. The phenomenon on the behavior of the Pacific high for us is very much like what happens if you plug in a heavy electrical device in your home and the lights dim. The Pacific high that sends the jet stream so far north to Alaska is all about high levels of strikes in the CONUS and no where for the displacement current to run, so when there IS a place for that current to go--it decreases that high. Consequently, there isn't as much of a cold air draft from the Arctic, and strike numbers overall can decrease in the CONUS for lack of cold front activity. However, the shear off of the moisture from the storms in the EPAC themselves become a source of lightning causing thunderstorms.
Interestingly, last year Rita formed under similar EPAC conditions. Once these two storms are petered out, the Pacific high re-establishes, and the jet shoots down colder Arctic air and the CONUS starts to fire up cold front driven thunderstorms. The current can't go to the Pacific--as it has been decarbonated and cold nonconductive water has been over turned to the ocean surface, and there remains monsoonal moisture.
Intensity forecasting is about electrics.
For each degF drop in SSTs there is a one percent increase in resistance. However, the lack of conductivity can be made up by an increase in displacement current. Therefore, if there are a lot of local strikes, and otherwise no other path for the current to run--say high impedence values elsewhere--then even in colder oceans a storm may better organize cloud microphysics.
Elements of good conductive conditions otherwise exist for this storm. History of river changes to the Colorado outflow have been supported by essentially normal seasons following the interrupted seasons with examples of storms that landfell fairly far north. There is a rising SOI, and that means increases of conductivity to the east Pacific side. Strikes in the CONUS went to about 20,000 per hour during the peak of the afternoon and evening, and blow off from the 'C' storm to the Mexican mountains are not counted in those strike totals. The link above shows decent looking IR imagery of what certainly are thunderstorm activity in both Central and South America as well.
Because of the decarbonation of the Atlantic last year from the very active season, as well as the recent decarbonation of the West Pacific, it's also not surprising that there isn't much place for the displacement current to go--but to the EPAC.
BTW, here in Redding CA the teleconnection is such that immediately on the forming of these storms it dropped about 10-20 degF from what we have been seeing so far this summer. The phenomenon on the behavior of the Pacific high for us is very much like what happens if you plug in a heavy electrical device in your home and the lights dim. The Pacific high that sends the jet stream so far north to Alaska is all about high levels of strikes in the CONUS and no where for the displacement current to run, so when there IS a place for that current to go--it decreases that high. Consequently, there isn't as much of a cold air draft from the Arctic, and strike numbers overall can decrease in the CONUS for lack of cold front activity. However, the shear off of the moisture from the storms in the EPAC themselves become a source of lightning causing thunderstorms.
Interestingly, last year Rita formed under similar EPAC conditions. Once these two storms are petered out, the Pacific high re-establishes, and the jet shoots down colder Arctic air and the CONUS starts to fire up cold front driven thunderstorms. The current can't go to the Pacific--as it has been decarbonated and cold nonconductive water has been over turned to the ocean surface, and there remains monsoonal moisture.
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- Military Met
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Air Force Met wrote:Cyclenall wrote:
I hope Bud takes a page from Epsilon and strengthens over colder water and stable air. I would like that. When Hurricane Epsilon strengthened instead of weakened, did you say beforehand that he will fall?
Epislon was in a totally different environment vertically than Bud. It's all relative. As far as what I said...I didn't say anything...wasn't interested in Epsilon at all. After a season of long nights...long days...working 40 days in a row...sometimes 20 hours a day...by that time I could not have cared less about Epsilon since it did not impact my AOR. I was burned out.
EPAC storms do NOT beat the odds like Epsilon did when they move into cooler waters and stable air. Doesn't happen...and won't happen now. He's got another 12 hours or so before he starts down the slippery slope.
Above was posted at 9:26 PM...and we got another 10 knots ( which was the max I thought).
We are now 11 hours after the above post and the slippery slope has begun. Tops are starting to warm rapidly all around the CDO as Bud crosses the cooler waters.
It's all down hill from here. Thanks for the show Bud...and the heat transport.

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I woke up and saw that Bud has kept his eye and shape well. I'd say he is around 105 Knots due to the warming cloud tops but the NHC says 100 Knots. He should continue to weaken but I would like to see how long he can maintain the structure of his eye and "body". He looks ok though, not rapid weakening so far.
Bud has reached his peak during those 6 more hours I thought would be his only chance to strengthen more. He did, and reached a high level which is fine. If he had more time, he may have become a CAT4 for a short time. Slower movement may have caused him to strengthen more.
Oh boy, Carlotta is a weird storm now. She really is a funny thing.
New % chance for Major Hurricane Bud:
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Major Hurricane: 100%
Category 4 Hurricane: 0.4% (lowered)
Category 5 Hurricane: 0.2%
Bud has reached his peak during those 6 more hours I thought would be his only chance to strengthen more. He did, and reached a high level which is fine. If he had more time, he may have become a CAT4 for a short time. Slower movement may have caused him to strengthen more.
The last time storms "B" & "C" became hurricanes back-to-back was 1995, and so far I have not found a year in which both became major hurricanes. In case Carlotta becomes a major hurricane, this could be a first in the EPAC hurricane history.
Oh boy, Carlotta is a weird storm now. She really is a funny thing.
New % chance for Major Hurricane Bud:
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Major Hurricane: 100%
Category 4 Hurricane: 0.4% (lowered)
Category 5 Hurricane: 0.2%
Last edited by Cyclenall on Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Cyclenall wrote:New % chance for Major Hurricane Bud:
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Major Hurricane: 100%
Category 4 Hurricane: 3%
Category 5 Hurricane: 0.3%
This is how this should read:
Category 4 Hurricane: 0%
Category 5 Hurricane: 0%
No chance unless it was to reverse course and head back to warmer waters...which is not going to happen with that big high to the NE.
So...no chance.
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Air Force Met wrote:This is how this should read:
Category 4 Hurricane: 0%
Category 5 Hurricane: 0%
No chance unless it was to reverse course and head back to warmer waters...which is not going to happen with that big high to the NE.
So...no chance.
I tend to never put anything at 0% because anything is possible. Yes, the chance is absurdly low but the chances should not be 0% yet. I think i'm a bit high on the CAT4 strength so I will change that one.
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Cyclenall wrote:Air Force Met wrote:This is how this should read:
Category 4 Hurricane: 0%
Category 5 Hurricane: 0%
No chance unless it was to reverse course and head back to warmer waters...which is not going to happen with that big high to the NE.
So...no chance.
I tend to never put anything at 0% because anything is possible. Yes, the chance is absurdly low but the chances should not be 0% yet. I think i'm a bit high on the CAT4 strength so I will change that one.
Well...unless it does what I suggested...turn around and head the other way...yes it is impossible. WHy? It's against thermodynamic laws with 25C waters.
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Air Force Met wrote:Well...unless it does what I suggested...turn around and head the other way...yes it is impossible. WHy? It's against thermodynamic laws with 25C waters.
Yes.
I'm looking at Bud and the eye is getting worse. I think it could be clouding over.
EDIT: The eye is clearing out again just slightly or it's trying to anyways. Half the eye looks a bit better.
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665
WTPZ23 KNHC 132035
TCMEP3
HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.3W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.3W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 122.6W
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.3N 128.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.2N 131.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.0N 133.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 139.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 144.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.0N 148.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 123.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
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663
WTPZ43 KNHC 132035
TCDEP3
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
200 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
BUD CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH MOST OF THE
COLD CLOUD TOPS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE...THOUGH A RAGGED EYE REMAINS
VISIBLE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO
90-102 KT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 95 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE
SOMEWHAT GENEROUS. A 1339Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND AT MOST 60 NMI FROM THE
CENTER...SO THE WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED INWARD. THE HURRICANE'S
MOVEMENT CONTINUES ALONG A REGULAR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 15
KT.
BUD IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE AT 130 W IS ANTICIPATED TO FILL AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD...SO THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO
TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE LOSES THE VORTEX AFTER A DAY OR TWO. THE REMAINING MODELS
SUGGEST A BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
THE FORECAST IS SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AS THE NOGAPS CONTRIBUTION IS
DOWNPLAYED. THE NOGAPS APPEARS TO HAVE A LARGER THAN EXPECTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE VORTEX FROM THREE TO FIVE DAYS ALLOWING IT TO BE
PULLED TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. BUD'S INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE
DROPPING QUICKLY AS IT PROGRESSES OVER COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BUD SHOULD
BECOME A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/2100Z 18.4N 123.3W 95 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 19.2N 125.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 20.3N 128.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 21.2N 131.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 22.0N 133.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 22.5N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 18/1800Z 22.0N 148.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
WTPZ23 KNHC 132035
TCMEP3
HURRICANE BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2006
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.3W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.3W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 122.6W
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.3N 128.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.2N 131.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.0N 133.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 139.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 144.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.0N 148.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 123.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
663
WTPZ43 KNHC 132035
TCDEP3
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
200 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
BUD CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH MOST OF THE
COLD CLOUD TOPS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE...THOUGH A RAGGED EYE REMAINS
VISIBLE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO
90-102 KT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 95 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE
SOMEWHAT GENEROUS. A 1339Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND AT MOST 60 NMI FROM THE
CENTER...SO THE WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED INWARD. THE HURRICANE'S
MOVEMENT CONTINUES ALONG A REGULAR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 15
KT.
BUD IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE AT 130 W IS ANTICIPATED TO FILL AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD...SO THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO
TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE LOSES THE VORTEX AFTER A DAY OR TWO. THE REMAINING MODELS
SUGGEST A BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
THE FORECAST IS SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AS THE NOGAPS CONTRIBUTION IS
DOWNPLAYED. THE NOGAPS APPEARS TO HAVE A LARGER THAN EXPECTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE VORTEX FROM THREE TO FIVE DAYS ALLOWING IT TO BE
PULLED TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. BUD'S INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE
DROPPING QUICKLY AS IT PROGRESSES OVER COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BUD SHOULD
BECOME A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/2100Z 18.4N 123.3W 95 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 19.2N 125.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 20.3N 128.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 21.2N 131.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 22.0N 133.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 22.5N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 18/1800Z 22.0N 148.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
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- Epsilon_Fan
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WTPZ43 KNHC 140237
TCDEP3
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
800 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION REVEALS A CONTINUED WEAKENING
TREND FOR BUD. THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND CORE CONVECTION
CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 90 TO 102 KT WITH THE T NUMBERS AND ODT DROPPING TO 77 AND 67
KT RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY DECREASED TO 85 KT AS A
COMPROMISE. THE NCEP/MMAB DAILY HIGH RESOLUTION SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING
OVER A TONGUE OF COOLER WATER WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 20
TO 23 CELSIUS. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A LESS FAVORABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT BUD...ULTIMATELY REDUCING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS BY THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BUD WILL WEAKEN BELOW
DEPRESSION STRENGTH OR ACTUALLY DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.
INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KT. HURRICANE BUD IS
TRACKING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTERWORDS...BUD IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW TO MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW
AS A REMNANT LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 18.9N 124.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 20.5N 129.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 21.2N 131.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 21.6N 134.3W 30 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 18/0000Z 22.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 19/0000Z 22.0N 149.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
TCDEP3
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
800 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION REVEALS A CONTINUED WEAKENING
TREND FOR BUD. THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND CORE CONVECTION
CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 90 TO 102 KT WITH THE T NUMBERS AND ODT DROPPING TO 77 AND 67
KT RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY DECREASED TO 85 KT AS A
COMPROMISE. THE NCEP/MMAB DAILY HIGH RESOLUTION SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING
OVER A TONGUE OF COOLER WATER WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 20
TO 23 CELSIUS. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A LESS FAVORABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT BUD...ULTIMATELY REDUCING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS BY THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BUD WILL WEAKEN BELOW
DEPRESSION STRENGTH OR ACTUALLY DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.
INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KT. HURRICANE BUD IS
TRACKING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTERWORDS...BUD IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW TO MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW
AS A REMNANT LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 18.9N 124.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 20.5N 129.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 21.2N 131.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 21.6N 134.3W 30 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 18/0000Z 22.0N 144.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 19/0000Z 22.0N 149.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
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WTPZ43 KNHC 141429
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
BUD IS QUICKLY WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS AND A
STABLE AIRMASS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65-77
KT...BUT ARE CONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK RULES. DATA T-NUMBERS
SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER SYSTEM. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE
55 KT...THOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE NEAR LACK OF
CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES ITS STRAIGHT TRACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 13 KT.
AS BUD IS NOW BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW...A BUILDING
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH SHOULD TURN THE STORM BACK TO THE WEST IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS AND PERHAPS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AT DAYS
FOUR AND FIVE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COLD 22 C WATERS AND STABLE
AIR...BUD WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY AND A
HALF AND MAY NOT EXIST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
RELIES HEAVILY UPON SHIPS AND GFDI...BUT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE WHICH DISSIPATES BUD ALMOST IMMEDIATELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/1500Z 19.7N 127.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 20.1N 129.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 20.5N 131.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.0N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 18/1200Z 20.5N 148.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 19/1200Z 20.0N 154.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
BUD IS QUICKLY WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS AND A
STABLE AIRMASS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65-77
KT...BUT ARE CONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK RULES. DATA T-NUMBERS
SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER SYSTEM. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE
55 KT...THOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE NEAR LACK OF
CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES ITS STRAIGHT TRACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 13 KT.
AS BUD IS NOW BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW...A BUILDING
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH SHOULD TURN THE STORM BACK TO THE WEST IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS AND PERHAPS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AT DAYS
FOUR AND FIVE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COLD 22 C WATERS AND STABLE
AIR...BUD WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY AND A
HALF AND MAY NOT EXIST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
RELIES HEAVILY UPON SHIPS AND GFDI...BUT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE WHICH DISSIPATES BUD ALMOST IMMEDIATELY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/1500Z 19.7N 127.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 20.1N 129.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 20.5N 131.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.0N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 18/1200Z 20.5N 148.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 19/1200Z 20.0N 154.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
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