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boca
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#221 Postby boca » Thu Jul 13, 2006 7:43 am

Thunder44 wrote:
boca wrote:Wave is looking a little better this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html


Yes, only to probably look worse this afternoon. There seems to be too much shear in the Carribean to let this thing develop.


so so true
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#222 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:09 am

As persistant as this wave has been over the past few days under very unfavorable conditions, just think if the environment was favorable....we may have a monster on our hands.
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#223 Postby Starburst » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:15 am

I see they have taken the invest down from the navy site.
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#224 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:20 am

Steering level chart shows continued west movement, but it should be slower than the last couple of days.
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#225 Postby boca » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:23 am

Lets see what it does once it gets west of Jaimaica.
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#226 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:26 am

Starburst wrote:I see they have taken the invest down from the navy site.


Still there.....
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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#227 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:42 am

skysummit wrote:
Starburst wrote:I see they have taken the invest down from the navy site.


Still there.....
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
That's pretty old, look at the Pic.
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#228 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:44 am

skysummit wrote:
Starburst wrote:I see they have taken the invest down from the navy site.


Still there.....
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


But it has been taken out of the Back-up site

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
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#229 Postby boca » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:44 am

It has a current date on it .
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#230 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 13, 2006 8:47 am

tailgater wrote:
skysummit wrote:
Starburst wrote:I see they have taken the invest down from the navy site.


Still there.....
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
That's pretty old, look at the Pic.


Image

What happened was that they didn't move the image position and the water is already in the ECAR.
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#231 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:01 am

HURAKAN wrote:
tailgater wrote:
skysummit wrote:
Starburst wrote:I see they have taken the invest down from the navy site.


Still there.....
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
That's pretty old, look at the Pic.


Image

What happened was that they didn't move the image position and the water is already in the ECAR.

Yea I think that's about the point when they gave on it.
And yes the water is already in the ECAR. j/p.
Last edited by tailgater on Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#232 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:02 am

Maybe they're about to take it off???
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#233 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:08 am

They probably aren't running models on it anymore.
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#234 Postby skysummit » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:13 am

Thunder44 wrote:They probably aren't running models on it anymore.


Yea...I haven't seen any models since yesterday 12z.
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#235 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:15 am

No recon flights scheduled:

865
NOUS42 KNHC 131315
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT THU 13 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-044

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
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#236 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:17 am

not surprising, although it has some convection right now, with each new burst that dies away, I lose more and more confidence of development...but I believe this wave is a sign of the possibly monsterous cape verde season coming in early august...were already looking at another well organized TW righ under the CV's
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#237 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:44 pm

96L is back up on both NRL sites (main and backup), though apparently still no new models runs since yesterday....
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#238 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:46 pm

From 205 pm discussion.A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W
SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS EASY TO
LOCATE. THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM OR ILL-DEFINED SFC LOW THAT WAS
ALONG THE WAVE YESTERDAY HAS DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT BUT A NEW
SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN
63W-65W TODAY. DESPITE THE FAIR WAVE SIGNATURE...FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 300 NM BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE AXIS ESPECIALLY IN THE
CONVECTION.
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#239 Postby WindRunner » Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:47 pm

Well, do consider the fact that models have only run on this system about 4 times, though it has been up for almost a week now. A lack of model runs just shows a lack of interest from the models (i.e. they aren't picking up on it). Doesn't mean the real people aren't still interested in it.
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#240 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:49 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

96L looks a little better IMO, still has a long way to go, but it looks like shear in the Western Caribbean should be favorable for development.
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