Little Bahama Mama in the Gulf

[Portastorm]

I highly doubt this will turn into anything serious in a short period of time. Otherwise, the fine forecasters at NHC or even the Air Force folks at Eglin would be all over this disturbance.

Worth watching with curiosity ... but nothing more at this point.

[HouTXmetro]

I highly doubt this will turn into anything serious in a short period of time. Otherwise, the fine forecasters at NHC or even the Air Force folks at Eglin would be all over this disturbance.

Worth watching with curiosity ... but nothing more at this point.

well we are finally hearing some discussion about from Mets.

[Dean4Storms]

Does look better this afternoon and you can see a slight rotation on this sat loop.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[gatorcane]

Does look better this afternoon and you can see a slight rotation on this sat loop.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

Yep looking much better organized today I have to admit and its something in the GOM which is a favorable area for development this time of year

unlike the areas way out in the Atlantic that stand little chance right now based on climatology.

I'll be watching this one very closely as it tracks over 85-88F water temps in the next couple of days.

[mvtrucking]

Shear map:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=20

Not sure if I'm reading this correctly?(5-10 kts where the system is now, and 20-40 kts in the western gulf?) If this is correct
then as the system moves west the upper levels become more hostile?

[Nimbus]

Thats a long track to Texas and a lot could happen. I was hoping maybe we would see some elongation in the circulation due to shear. Unfortunately the shear in the eastern gulf along the future track has diminished considerably.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Doppler radar must have located the low near the latest convection burst just NW of Key west.

[x-y-no]

So far, no model I've looked at hints at any kind of development at all.

However, I think I see some chance if this tracks WNW to NW for the next day or two. The ULL over the Bay of Campeche should continue to move west, and an upper high build over the central Gulf. The global models appear to carry this low level disturbance northward off the Florida coast and thus under the high-shear periphery of that building upper high. If instead it tracks into the central gulf, then upper air conditions should be somewhat more favorable.

I don't expect this to go nuts, though. Right now, I'm thinking in terms of an outside chance at a TD forming. It needs to pass that hurdle before one starts hypothesiszing about further development.

[x-y-no]

Shear map:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=20

Not sure if I'm reading this correctly?(5-10 kts where the system is now, and 20-40 kts in the western gulf?) If this is correct
then as the system moves west the upper levels become more hostile?

That situation will change, as the strong ULL over the western Gulf will move westward over Mexico in the next day or so.

[gatorcane]

So far, no model I've looked at hints at any kind of development at all.

However, I think I see some chance if this tracks WNW to NW for the next day or two. The ULL over the Bay of Campeche should continue to move west, and an upper high build over the central Gulf. The global models appear to carry this low level disturbance northward off the Florida coast and thus under the high-shear periphery of that building upper high. If instead it tracks into the central gulf, then upper air conditions should be somewhat more favorable.

I don't expect this to go nuts, though. Right now, I'm thinking in terms of an outside chance at a TD forming. It needs to pass that hurdle before one starts hypothesiszing about further development.

This buoy is reporting a water temp of nearly 88F:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

well if you say so I definitely am paying attention. These are the kind of systems that can catch people off guard as they can develop with little warning...

[rockyman]

The 00z Candian showed development, but the 12z has backed off:

Current (12z):
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... index.html

Earlier (00z):
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/86.html

[Nimbus]

The shear maps change over time in 24-48 hours the mid gulf should quiet down some if an anticyclone builds over this system.

[skysummit]

It looks like it should track at least WNW for the next day or so, but right now steering currents look to be weak. Our local mets here are saying we have a lot of moisture moving up from the gulf on Saturday, but clearing out by Sunday. So far they're not thinking much of it yet. (that was as of early this morning....I didn't hear the noon news)

[rockyman]

If a low level center develops, it will not plow right under the upper low, but should be deflected to the north around the east side of the low...I think

[HouTXmetro]

Shear map:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=20

Not sure if I'm reading this correctly?(5-10 kts where the system is now, and 20-40 kts in the western gulf?) If this is correct
then as the system moves west the upper levels become more hostile?

An educated guess would say if the system moves West-WNW in tandem with the ULL, the shear enviroment would remain low in it's immediate path. PRo-Mets?

[x-y-no]

Shear map:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=20

Not sure if I'm reading this correctly?(5-10 kts where the system is now, and 20-40 kts in the western gulf?) If this is correct
then as the system moves west the upper levels become more hostile?

An educated guess would say of the system moves West-WNW in tandem with the ULL the shear enviroment remain low in it's path. PRo-Mets?

Not a pro met, but yes I think that's exactly right. The ULL has been moving westward, and will continue to do so.

[mvtrucking]

Thanks all for answering my question about the shear. (x-y-no, HouTxmetro,Nimbus)

[Stormcenter]

I guess nothing will ever become of this "disturbance or whatever" but is sure does looks interesting this afternoon with the new blow up of convection and better organization.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[teal61]

I guess nothing will ever become of this "disturbance or whatever" but is sure does looks interesting this afternoon with the new blow up of convection and better organization.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

Can't really tell on the infrared. But I find the area about 100 miles wsw of Tampa a little more interesting, there appears to be some lower lever turning there.

[tailgater]

From the 2:05 Disco:


...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH...THAT WAS IN THE W BAHAMAS AND OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA YESTERDAY HAS TRACKED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE BOUNDARY LIES ALONG 29N86W 26N83W
23N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
POSSIBLE SMALL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH NORTHWEST
OF KEY WEST WHERE THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF RAINFALL SOUTH OF
26N...NAMELY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

I can't tell what they are looking at? Mid level maybe? NW of Key West
The area west of Tampa looks more impressive to me

[Stormcenter]

From the 2:05 Disco:


...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH...THAT WAS IN THE W BAHAMAS AND OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA YESTERDAY HAS TRACKED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE BOUNDARY LIES ALONG 29N86W 26N83W
23N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
POSSIBLE SMALL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH NORTHWEST
OF KEY WEST WHERE THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF RAINFALL SOUTH OF
26N...NAMELY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

I can't tell what they are looking at? Mid level maybe? NW of Key West
The area west of Tampa looks more impressive to me

Look at this loop and you can see what they are referring to.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html