Little Bahama Mama in the Gulf

Kennethb · #181 Postby **Kennethb** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 2:17 pm

A very broad, slight twist in the trough. If the middle level circulation can catch up, could be a little more to take note of.

#182 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 2:21 pm

ULL forming in North Fla. will probably increase shear.

#183 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 2:23 pm

tailgater wrote:ULL forming in North Fla. will probably increase shear.

I don't see it.

HouTXmetro · #184 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 2:26 pm

Pressures are falling but the surface winds are not showing a surface low.

#185 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 2:28 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Pressures are falling but the surface winds are not showing a surface low.

If they are truly falling, the wind will take time to catch up.

#186 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 3:11 pm

There is definitely some twisting motion with this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

southerngale · #187 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 3:17 pm

You can get a good animated close-up using GHCC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Select vis, IR, or WV
Check on animation, select how many loops (15 or whatever)
Quality at 100%, zoom factor High
Then click on the map where you want it to zoom

southerngale · #188 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 4:07 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THIS AREA AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

Extremeweatherguy · #189 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 4:10 pm

southerngale wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THIS AREA AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

well that is a better outlook for development than this morning's. Earlier it seemed like there was no chance at all.

#190 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 4:12 pm

Ok, I have been away for a while, where is this disturbance headed, all the local folks are saying North GOM, and is supposed to bring us a better chance of rain

#191 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 4:15 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
southerngale wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE. PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THIS AREA AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

well that is a better outlook for development than this morning's. Earlier it seemed like there was no chance at all.

This morning development was not likely now the tune has changed a little.

Extremeweatherguy · #192 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 4:29 pm

the only problem is right now this system looks HORRIBLE! It needs to sustain more of a ball of convection before it can develop.

Nimbus · #193 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 4:36 pm

I'm sure not complaining about the lack of convection! I'm not sure what the odds are of a shallow low traveling over bath tub warm water all the way to Texas without flaring and deepening? Hey it could happen right?

#194 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 4:43 pm

Nimbus wrote:I'm sure not complaining about the lack of convection! I'm not sure what the odds are of a shallow low traveling over bath tub warm water all the way to Texas without flaring and deepening? Hey it could happen right?

It's possible. I think it's got the potential to develop into a TD.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

HurricaneHunter914 · #195 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 5:00 pm

Wait, if this has the potential for some slow development, shouldn't this be 97L?

beachbum_al · #196 Postby **beachbum_al** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 5:15 pm

I don't know the answer to that one Hurricane Hunter 914. I am waiting for the next forecast to come out local. Off to watch it.

Still not saying too much on WKRG at 5. Just rain potential for this area which we need badly.

Stormavoider · #197 Postby **Stormavoider** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 5:49 pm

It looks like the LLC has run SW out from under the convection. Its spinning just off the Cuban coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Extremeweatherguy · #198 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 6:13 pm

JB pointed out that some buoys in that area have water temps. near 90F!

#199 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 6:21 pm

Here is a good satellite loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

#200 Postby **tailgater** » Thu Jul 13, 2006 6:24 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
tailgater wrote:ULL forming in North Fla. will probably increase shear.

I don't see it.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor1.GIF

Little Bahama Mama in the Gulf

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