Moderate risk issued - Heartland

[CrazyC83]

The SPC has just jumped the risk up to moderate for parts of the central US, with severe weather possible all up and down the midsection from Oklahoma to Manitoba.

This came out of nowhere - last night it was only a 15% risk! It gradually increased during the day...

Tornadoes don't appear to be a major threat though.

[CrazyC83]

Look at the probabilities on the southern watch:

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (>95%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (50%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (>95%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (50%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)

Shouldn't the watch be a PDS with the >95% numbers?

[Skywatch_NC]

Just thought I'd throw this in, also.

There's a slight risk for parts of VA, WV and NRN NC, too.

[WindRunner]

Yeah, watching on KOAX (Omaha) right now, and surprisingly nothing too bad in terms of hail (contrary to that 45% loop S and E of Omaha), but a couple of good bowing segments. And WW598 just came out, that might be where to look for our hailers, along with 597, as KS/S NE/MO has been relatively untouched as of yet, with only a few isolated popups so far.

EDIT: just saw a report come in, from Seward Co. NE - report of 1.75" hail with a storm on the southwestern side of the bows . . . things'll be interesting in Kansas

[WindRunner]

One storm on the KS/NE border (Furnas Co. NE/Norton Co. KS) that should be warned right now . . . 2.4" MEHS (Maximum Estimated Hail Size - the biggest it could be) per Hastings radar right now . . . been building up to this for some 30 minutes, so I'm not sure of the delay here.

Also, both bow echos are weakening now, the northerly one is still stronger, however, and the southern one is breaking up and its ends are developing nice hail cores, with the far southern one (in a cell that didn't even exist a half-hour ago) having a max MEHS of 3.3" . . . that should be hitting the ground in SW Cass county in about 15 minutes.

[CrazyC83]

More should come and go though...

[WindRunner]

SPC report page starting to look well-decorated . . . and still plenty coming in. Several (about 5) 1.75" reports in amongst the large hail reports (>2"), which comprise of a 2.5", 2.75", and a 3" report so far.

I'd be borderline on calling this an outbreak, though.

[CrazyC83]

It was never supposed to be a tornado outbreak though; the moderate was dropped (barely).