Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
Even if convection is decreasing lets see how it looks tomorrow once it builds up more convection.
Even if convection is decreasing lets see how it looks tomorrow once it builds up more convection.
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SouthFloridawx wrote:Weatherfreak000 wrote:It's still got an impressive spin but the convection is ragged and hardly noticable.
It's looking weak.
This is probably the best cyclonic turning with a wave we have had thus far this season.
I agree with that, however without any convection this thing isn't going anywhere. The convection is dieing for a reason, I don't really see why it's happening but it is.
It's looking worse.
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- SouthFloridawx
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Weatherfreak000 wrote:SouthFloridawx wrote:Weatherfreak000 wrote:It's still got an impressive spin but the convection is ragged and hardly noticable.
It's looking weak.
This is probably the best cyclonic turning with a wave we have had thus far this season.
I agree with that, however without any convection this thing isn't going anywhere. The convection is dieing for a reason, I don't really see why it's happening but it is.
It's looking worse.
Typically you'll see flaring up with tropical waves... it is quite common.
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Exactly, once this can get into favorable conditions then this will have some real persistent conditions.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
SouthFloridawx wrote:Weatherfreak000 wrote:SouthFloridawx wrote:Weatherfreak000 wrote:It's still got an impressive spin but the convection is ragged and hardly noticable.
It's looking weak.
This is probably the best cyclonic turning with a wave we have had thus far this season.
I agree with that, however without any convection this thing isn't going anywhere. The convection is dieing for a reason, I don't really see why it's happening but it is.
It's looking worse.
Typically you'll see flaring up with tropical waves... it is quite common.
I know, but it's not going to be getting anywhere if the connection doesn't sustain itself
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The system, despite a well-defined and nice signature earlier today, has been shallow, and the signature is looking slightly less impressive now. Dry air intrusion from the Azores High, along with some SAL, appear to be the contributing factors at the middle levels suppressing convective activity. In addition, shear has increased a bit just ahead and over the wave in association with an upper-level TUTT-like trough.
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CapeVerdeWave wrote:The system, despite a well-defined and nice signature earlier today, has been shallow, and the signature is looking slightly less impressive now. Dry air intrusion from the Azores High, along with some SAL, appear to be the contributing factors at the middle levels suppressing convective activity. In addition, shear has increased a bit just ahead and over the wave in association with an upper-level TUTT-like trough.
What dry air?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg
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CapeVerdeWave wrote:The system, despite a well-defined and nice signature earlier today, has been shallow, and the signature is looking slightly less impressive now. Dry air intrusion from the Azores High, along with some SAL, appear to be the contributing factors at the middle levels suppressing convective activity. In addition, shear has increased a bit just ahead and over the wave in association with an upper-level TUTT-like trough.
Outstanding post, CVW. I completely agree.
Can any other pro-mets come along and give opinion upon the wave?
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The dry air is at the middle levels, NOT the rather moist lower levels shown in water vapor imagery. That's why the environment, although it appears to be moist at the lower levels, is not as moist at the middle levels. This is indicated by the rather shallow and anemic-looking mid-level convective activity of the wave. Remember that the structure of this wave, although impressive, has been rather shallow. This has allowed the convective activity to be easily affected by mid-level dry air intrusion from the Azores High to the system's north-northwest, along with some SAL intrusion, although the lowest levels, which are shown on water vapor imagery, are deceivingly moist. Also, an upper-level TUTT trough to the northwest is beginning to increase the shear over the wave at the upper levels, which is why the shallow structure, along with the effects of mid-level dry air and SAL intrusion, is starting to look less impressive as well, along with the anemic convective activity.
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SouthFloridawx wrote:here is a good loop of the area
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html
That is a awesome sat view. Thanks.
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Dry Air and Shear... The ole 1 - 2 punch for now..
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
Looks to be above 10N and SSts are on the edge..
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
Looks to be above 10N and SSts are on the edge..
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif
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CapeVerdeWave wrote:The dry air is at the middle levels, NOT the rather moist lower levels shown in water vapor imagery. That's why the environment, although it appears to be moist at the lower levels, is not as moist at the middle levels. This is indicated by the rather shallow and anemic-looking mid-level convective activity of the wave. Remember that the structure of this wave, although impressive, has been rather shallow. This has allowed the convective activity to be easily affected by mid-level dry air intrusion from the Azores High to the system's north-northwest, along with some SAL intrusion, although the lowest levels, which are shown on water vapor imagery, are deceivingly moist. Also, an upper-level TUTT trough to the northwest is beginning to increase the shear over the wave at the upper levels, which is why the shallow structure, along with the effects of mid-level dry air and SAL intrusion, is starting to look less impressive as well, along with the anemic convective activity.
One problem with what you're saying here - the first sentence. Water Vapor imagery shows almost nothing below 600MB. I'm not saying you're correct or incorrect in your synoptic reasoning, however WV imagery is not going to show you anything at the lower levels.
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WindRunner wrote:Wait . . . I thought WV was always a good upper-level imaging device?
The GOES water vapor imagery is often not effective at observing overlying drier air over more moister air at other lower layers of the atmosphere. Even at the middle levels, moisture can be just below much drier air at the upper levels intruding on the system.
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AJC3 wrote:One problem with what you're saying here - the first sentence. Water Vapor imagery shows almost nothing below 600MB. I'm not saying you're correct or incorrect in your synoptic reasoning, however WV imagery is not going to show you anything at the lower levels.
Perhaps not at the lowest levels, but at the intermediate low-mid levels it probably does. Thanks for the information, though.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Thu Jul 13, 2006 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- SouthFloridawx
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TUTT just to the northwest of the wave... is moving in a westerly fashion..
as evidence here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-wv.html
I will agree it is shallow looking but, I don't think it is being affected that much from the dry air to the north.
The trough farther off to the northwest I will agree that is not moving much but looks to be getting squeezed. I am also noticing more water vapor than we have seen all season so far along the itcz. I think this may have something to do with positive MJO.
IMO I think we'll see a flare up in the overnight hours... The sal dry air is not as dense as it has been for the past few weeks. IMO I think we'll see 97L by tomorrow night... this might not form into a tropical depression but, with a positive MJO in the Atlantic it is likely we will see one in the next week.
as evidence here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-wv.html
I will agree it is shallow looking but, I don't think it is being affected that much from the dry air to the north.
The trough farther off to the northwest I will agree that is not moving much but looks to be getting squeezed. I am also noticing more water vapor than we have seen all season so far along the itcz. I think this may have something to do with positive MJO.

IMO I think we'll see a flare up in the overnight hours... The sal dry air is not as dense as it has been for the past few weeks. IMO I think we'll see 97L by tomorrow night... this might not form into a tropical depression but, with a positive MJO in the Atlantic it is likely we will see one in the next week.
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SouthFloridawx wrote:TUTT just to the northwest of the wave... is moving in a westerly fashion..
as evidence here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-wv.html
I was looking at this infra-red loop, which better indicates the movement of the TUTT if you look closely. It indicates that the TUTT is nearly stationary, NOT moving west.
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