Ex-96L Invest,Comments

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tailgater
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#261 Postby tailgater » Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:55 am

Brent wrote:Another invest goes poof. Surprise, surprise.


By Sunday Ole 96L will have our interest again.
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#262 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:58 am

Even the NHC said this has gone poof, but in a nicer way.
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#263 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:19 pm

It will be cool to have something to track, nevertheless, we are still in good shape, climatologically speaking.
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#264 Postby sponger » Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:54 pm

Awfully quiet out there! I wonder if August is going to light it up?
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#265 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri Jul 14, 2006 1:56 pm

With the Wet MJO coming in August is going to light up like a Christmas Tree and that Christmas Tree is going to attract alot of presesnts (members of S2K).
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#266 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:55 pm

For the first time I read in the NHC's TWO for the Atlantic this:

"THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION."
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#267 Postby Grease Monkey » Fri Jul 14, 2006 2:57 pm

Cyclenall wrote:For the first time I read in the NHC's TWO for the Atlantic this:

"THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION."


Doesn't this mean that it gives the atlantic a more favorable chance to warm up by the time august rolls around?
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#268 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Fri Jul 14, 2006 3:16 pm

the wave in the S. Caribbean seems to be getting some convection... not like it will raise this thing from the dead but noteworthy
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#269 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Jul 14, 2006 3:17 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:For the first time I read in the NHC's TWO for the Atlantic this:

"THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION."


Doesn't this mean that it gives the atlantic a more favorable chance to warm up by the time august rolls around?

Yes it does. I'm not going wild over the quiet tropics right now.
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#270 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 14, 2006 3:50 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:For the first time I read in the NHC's TWO for the Atlantic this:

"THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION."


Doesn't this mean that it gives the atlantic a more favorable chance to warm up by the time august rolls around?

Yes it does. I'm not going wild over the quiet tropics right now.


Not necessarily. The waters won't warm up significantly due to the lack of storminess. (Tropical cyclones, on average, hardly affect SSTs unless several track over the same area and/or slow-movement creates upwelling. Regardless, the effects on the basin as a whole are small.)

Furthermore, without a kicker (i.e. a tropical disturbance) and favorable oceanographic and atmospheric conditions (to include, but not limited to, low shear, moisture throughout the column of air, choppy waters [which create more surface area to draw from and adds moisture to the air from the spray], warm waters at depth, and proper upper-tropospheric ventilation), nothing will form... regardless of the SSTs.
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#271 Postby tailgater » Sat Jul 15, 2006 8:46 am

tailgater wrote:
Brent wrote:Another invest goes poof. Surprise, surprise.


By Sunday Ole 96L will have our interest again.

Bump
Current flare up, is taking place while it's going through a pocket of dry air.
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#272 Postby Dustin » Sat Jul 15, 2006 9:00 am

I don't know if anyone else noticed this but there is a nice flare up near the Yucatan in the Carib sea.
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#273 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jul 15, 2006 9:00 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:With the Wet MJO coming in August is going to light up like a Christmas Tree and that Christmas Tree is going to attract alot of presesnts (members of S2K).


remember that it doesnt matter what phase the MJO is in if there is 40kts of shear roaring across the Atlantic
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#274 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 15, 2006 9:35 am

wxwatcher91 wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:With the Wet MJO coming in August is going to light up like a Christmas Tree and that Christmas Tree is going to attract alot of presesnts (members of S2K).


remember that it doesnt matter what phase the MJO is in if there is 40kts of shear roaring across the Atlantic


everything is normal so far here in July. That shear should relax in August.
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