MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1209 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IND...NWRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141709Z - 141915Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   FROM SERN MO THROUGH SRN IL...SRN IND AND NWRN KY THIS AFTERNOON.
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREATS.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON AN MCV WAS LOCATED OVER SERN MO MOVING EWD. SEVERAL
   SURFACE BOUNDARIES ALSO EXIST INCLUDING ONE FROM SERN MO INTO NERN
   AR...ONE FROM SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN IND. THESE FEATURES WILL SERVE AS FOCI FOR
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TODAY. THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
   WEAK...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000
   J/KG. WSWLY FLOW OF 20 TO 30 KT BETWEEN 1 AND 6 KM WITH WEAK
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES THAT MAY
   EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS AS THEY SPREAD EWD. THE
   STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH PW CONTENT WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT OF PRIMARILY WET MICROBURSTS. SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
   THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT OVERALL HAIL SIZE MAY BE LIMITED BY POOR
   MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...
   
   37379083 37949023 38278893 38488810 38798716 39408573
   39278500 38758488 37808610 36978802 36588951 36649062

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN...WRN AND NRN NC THROUGH SRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141811Z - 142015Z
   
   WET MICRO BURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
   DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   DUE TO THE EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS.
   
   NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK
   CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES ACROSS ERN TN...SRN VA AND NRN NC AS WELL AS
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
   WARM AIR IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER WILL LIMIT ANY HAIL POTENTIAL. WEAK
   VERTICAL SHEAR WITH MODEST WLY DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL
   SUPPORT MULTICELL AND PULSE STORM TYPES. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
   LIMITED TO ISOLATED WET MICRO BURSTS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   90S...RESULTING IN STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...FFC...
   
   35158526 36338387 37148201 37307950 36527744 36057803
   35938024 35208371 34928457

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1514
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 141937Z - 142130Z
   
   THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL SHOULD PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS AS LINE OF STORMS CONTINUE EWD
   THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN OH THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   LINES OF STORMS EXTEND FROM NWRN OH SWD THROUGH SWRN OH MOVING EAST
   AT AROUND 25 KT. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM VORT
   MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN IND. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES
   TO DESTABILIZE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND
   TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.
   VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE RATHER MODEST WITH 20-30 KT BETWEEN 2-6
   KM AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WEAKLY
   CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...BUT SOME HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   40728084 39478158 38768350 39998334 41038353 41528309
   41458121

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1515
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK...NWRN TX/TX PANHANDLE...FAR SERN CO/NERN
   NM AND SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WEATHER WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED
   
   VALID 142034Z - 142330Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DMGG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG SEVERAL RESIDUAL BNDRYS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
   THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE
   RELATIVE LACK OF ORGANIZATION.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES
   AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG/ EXTENDING NW-SE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   SEVERAL RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES GENERATED FROM PREVIOUS DAY CONVECTION
   ALONG WITH A SFC LOW OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO
   FOCUS CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL TSTM INITIATION GIVEN LIMITED CINH
   OVER THE AREA. DEEPLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
   FOR DMGG WINDS GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY /DCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000
   J/KG/. PRESENCE OF MODEST NELY MID-HIGH LEVEL WINDS /20-30 KTS PER
   REGIONAL PROFILER AND VWP DATA/ SUGGEST SOME WEAK ORGANIZED LINE
   SEGMENTS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO AN ISOLATE DMGG WIND
   THREAT AS THEY MOVE SWWD. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AND
   UNORGANIZED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   34509859 35239908 35500040 35890139 36860161 37510171
   38340200 38650254 38650331 38240351 37270397 36530399
   35900380 35300347 34660286 34310175 34179964

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1516
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NM...SERN AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 142148Z - 142345Z
   
   ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION AS IT
   CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WSWWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO
   LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SRN NM AND SERN AZ. OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD
   REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN INSTABILITY AXIS OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000
   J/KG AND MINIMAL CINH EXTENDING ENE-WSW FROM SRN NM INTO SERN AZ.
   STRONGER CINH REMAINS OVER THE DESERTS OF SCENTRAL AZ AND THIS
   SHOULD LIMIT THE WWD EXTENT OF SVR THREAT INTO THIS AREA FOR THE
   SEVERAL HRS. MODERATE ENELY MID LEVEL FLOW /20-25 KTS/ EXISTED OVER
   THE AREA...A RESPONSE TO INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE
   CENTER AND APPROACHING LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR SRN TX.
   GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS...SOME
   LINEAR ORGANIZATION TO TSTM CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH A
   DEEPLY MIXED BNDRY LAYER...DCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG...ISOLATED DMGG
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...
   
   32980780 32930841 32861062 32411108 31611135 31341088
   31350944 31330828 31730816 31820691 32140554 32630473
   32990446 33720421 34180449 34460491 34350566 33440643
   33130732

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OH...NRN KY AND SRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601...602...
   
   VALID 142158Z - 142330Z
   
   WILMINGTON OH AND LOUISVILLE KY VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW PRIMARILY A
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW REGIME...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR LESS THAN 20
   KTS.  THIS REMAINS SUPPORTIVE FOR EFFICIENT COLD POOL PRODUCTION AND
   AS MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS BECOME FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THIS
   FLOW...WET MICROBURSTS HAVE BEEN A THREAT. 
   
   PRIMARY TSTM THREATS THROUGH MID-EVENING WILL FAVOR TWO AREAS. ONE
   WILL BE ACROSS NRN OH...ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GRTLKS.  THE OTHER
   WILL BE ALONG/S OF THE OH RVR VCNTY A WEAK BOUNDARY/AHEAD OF A LWR
   OH VLY MCV.  AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL...THREAT FOR WET
   MICROBURSTS WILL DIMINISH. 
   
   THERE IS NO PLAN ATTM TO EXTEND WATCHES IN AREAL COVERAGE OR TIME.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...
   
   37968672 38848673 39968459 41688386 42118095 39338192
   37618418

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1518
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0532 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...EXTREME SWRN IND AND FAR WRN
   KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600...
   
   VALID 142232Z - 150000Z
   
   SATL INDICATES AN MCV CENTERED OVER STODDARD COUNTY MO...MOVING
   SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RVR.  DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE
   WERE FAVORABLE FOR A LINE OF TSTMS FROM SWRN IND SWWD INTO THE MO
   BOOTHEEL LATE THIS AFTN.  VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...BUT HOT AND
   VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW HAVE
   INCREASED THE RISKS OF WET MICROBURSTS WITH ANY CELL MERGERS AND/OR
   BOWING SEGMENTS. 
   
   PRIMARY RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 02Z WILL EXIST EAST OF THE
   MS RVR AND ALONG/S OF THE OH RVR ACROSS FAR WRN KY WHERE AN AXIS OF
   3500 J PER KG MLCAPE EXISTS.  TSTMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND
   VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.
   FARTHER W AND N...GENERALLY N OF I-64 AND WEST OF THE MS RVR...AIR
   MASS APPEARS TO HAVE STABLIZED AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS
   DIMINISHED.
   
   THERE IS NO PLAN TO EXTEND THE WATCH INTO WRN/CNTRL KY ATTM.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
   
   36709012 37868965 38618907 38658710 38438676 37558713
   36538839 36608961

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1519
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0536 PM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/CENTRAL IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 142236Z - 150030Z
   
   ISOLATED TSTM OVER NCENTRAL IA /NEAR FOD/ MAY SURVIVE AND MOVE SWD
   INTO CENTRAL IA IN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...GIVEN
   THE LIMITED SPATIAL SVR THREAT.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRM THE EXISTENCE OF A
   SFC LOW NEAR FOD IN NCENTRAL IA. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG/ EXISTS OVER CENTRAL/NCENTRAL IA
   WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 70S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S.
   FOCUSED CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH THE
   HIGH INSTABILITY HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONE TSTM TO DEVELOP NEAR FOD.
   LACK OF A MORE FOCUSED LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SOMEWHAT SUBSIDENT AIR
   ALOFT /PER WV IMAGERY/ SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
   REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER GIVEN MODEST MID LEVEL NNWLY FLOW /30 KTS
   PER THE SLA PROFILER/ AND SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
   STORM...MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME STORM ROTATION AND
   MARGINAL SVR THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...
   
   42949361 43089422 42859517 42669521 42219498 41959483
   41719430 41699393 41749363 41899332 42109307 42609309

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN SC THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 151911Z - 152115Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE
   REMAINDER THE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL AND
   ERN CAROLINAS.
   
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A LEE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN VA SWWD THROUGH
   ERN NC INTO CNTRL SC. THE WARM SECTOR IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY
   HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE
   AROUND 1500 J/KG. STORMS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED IN
   THE VICINITY OF THE LEE TROUGH. WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN
   EXTENTION OF MID ATLANTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY FURTHER ENHANCE
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. STORMS
   MAY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE EWD THROUGH
   THE CAROLINAS. THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH PW CONTENT
   WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS. ANY THREAT FOR HAIL WILL BE LIMITED BY WARM THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   34288228 35507866 36257717 36597624 35707579 34087812
   32978088

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 152008Z - 152215Z
   
   ISOLATED SVR TSTM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP NEAR A SFC LOW AND ALONG A LEE
   TROUGH FROM SCENTRAL SD NEWD INTO NCENTRAL/NERN SD OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HRS. PORTIONS OF NERN SD MAY NEED A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   
   LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWED CONGESTED HIGH BASED CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING ALONG A LEE TROUGH OVER SCENTRAL SD AND FAR NWRN NEB.
   VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 110-115 F RANGE HAVE LED
   TO VERY LITTLE CINH AND THUS CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE
   IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS WHILE DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL SD.
   GREATER CINH EXISTS ATTM OVER NERN SD...BUT SEVERAL MORE HRS OF
   HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR A SFC LOW OVER
   NCENTRAL SD. INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH 50-60 DEG T/TD SPREADS
   COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG/
   SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.
   MODERATE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND STRONGER EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER
   NERN SD MAY SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED SVR THREAT AND NEED FOR A WW.
   HOWEVER...GREATER CINH EXIST OVER THIS AREA...AND THUS SEVERAL MORE
   HRS OF HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE NEEDED.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
   
   45469905 45010020 44330084 43570124 43290116 43190097
   43160032 43189965 43719918 44619849 45279840

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1522
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0415 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MT...FAR NWRN WY AND NERN ID
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 152115Z - 152315Z
   
   CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER SWRN MT AND FAR NERN ID. ISOLATED
   DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS...BUT
   OVERALL MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD LIMIT ANY NEED FOR A
   WW.
   
   LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT TSTMS OVER SWRN MT AND FAR NERN
   ID. AIRMASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY...WITH DEWPTS IN
   THE 40S. HOWEVER...SOME MID LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER ID WILL SUPPORT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SUFFICIENT
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
   SUPPORTING MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...40-50 DEG F T/TD SPREADS...AND MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW OF
   35-40 KTS...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...
   
   46181088 46101219 45301372 44351399 44151366 44151265
   44411135 44850959 45460892 46110940 46251005

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1523
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CENTRAL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 603...
   
   VALID 152148Z - 152345Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR MCD GRAPHIC
   
   CONTINUE ALL OF WW 603.
   
   CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM OF
   CENTRAL/ECENTRAL AZ. THE DMGG WING THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
   WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/ WHILE MOVING SWWD INTO NRN
   PORTIONS OF WW 603 /INCLUDING NRN PORTIONS OF THE PHX METRO AREA/
   BEFORE 00Z.
   
   OVER SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF WW 603...AN MCV WILL MOVE ACROSS SERN AZ
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE WEST AND NORTH SIDES OF THIS MCV AND ORGANIZE
   INTO ONE OR MORE LINEAR SEGMENTS GIVEN THE MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WIND FIELDS OVER THE AREA /25-30 KTS PER RECENT TUS VWP/. THE DMGG
   WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP...GIVEN
   SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY /LOWER DEWPTS/ NOTED ON RECENT SFC AND
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS. HOWEVER SOME ORGANIZED NATURE OF
   CONVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...PSR...
   
   33831387 31971386 31340902 33300901

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1524
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0612 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WCENTRAL/SWRN AZ...SERN CA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 152312Z - 160115Z
   
   CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN YAVAPAI SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
   AND MAY POSE A SVR THREAT OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER/IMPERIAL VALLEYS
   THIS EVENING. THEREFORE A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR IN THIS AREA
   BEFORE 00Z.
   
   LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WAS ORGANIZING A COLD
   POOL OVER SRN YAVAPAI COUNTY. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL CELL MERGERS SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT
   HR OR SO IN SWRN YAVAPAI/NWRN MARICOPA COUNTIES. MODERATE /20-25 KT/
   NELY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STEER THIS CLUSTER SWWD INTO LOWER
   ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER AND IMPERIAL VALLEYS BETWEEN
   01-03Z. IN THIS AREA...HOT TEMPERATURES /110-115 DEG F/ AND DWPTS IN
   THE 50S TO LOWER 60S SUPPORT AN INSTABILITY AXIS OF MLCAPES FROM
   1000-2000 J/KG/ AND LITTLE CINH. ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF A DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...DMGG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY IF IT CONTINUES TO REMAIN ORGANIZED.
   
   FURTHER WEST...ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAGUNA AND SAN JACINTO MTNS
   OF ERN SAN DIEGO AND WRN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. SVR THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN ISOLATED SO A WW IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/15/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PSR...SGX...
   
   33651356 33361352 33001417 32691474 32571637 32591646
   32651655 32851656 33301648 33431656 33481636 33561623
   33641585 33721567 34081393

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0730 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 603...
   
   VALID 160030Z - 160230Z
   
   MAIN SVR THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS SHOULD BE OVER SCENTRAL AZ
   /AREAS WEST AND SW OF THE PHX METRO AREA TOWARDS YUMA/. SVR THREAT
   OVER SERN AZ MAY REMAIN MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT THIS PORTION OF WW 603
   COULD BE CLEARED FROM THE WATCH BEFORE 04Z.
   
   LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY OVER SCENTRAL AZ WAS ORGANIZED
   ALONG A ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE ON THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
   LOW OVER CHIHUAHUA. A MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE PHX
   METRO AREA SWWD INTO SWRN AZ...AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE GREATEST
   POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. FURTHER
   EAST...SUBSIDENCE OVER ERN AZ /NOTED BY LOWER DWPTS IN THE 40S AND
   THE 00Z TUS SOUNDING/ IN THE WAKE OF THIS VORTICITY LOBE HAS LIMITED
   STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN PORTIONS OF WW 603.
   ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE OVER SCENTRAL NM/FAR WRN TX WILL ROTATE WWD
   INTO SWRN NM OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
   WILL ACCOMPANY THIS VORT LOBE ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION.
   HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS VORT LOBE SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE OR NO SVR
   THREAT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO ERN PORTION OF WW 603 BEFORE THE
   EXPIRATION TIME OF 04Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
   
   32401454 33791418 33441233 33160908 31420916 31691151

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1526
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MN AND NW WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 160549Z - 160715Z
   
   AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL MN...HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME
   NECESSARY AS THE STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA SHOW A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH LOCATED ON THE NRN EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LIKELY INCREASING ACROSS MN AND STORM COVERAGE
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
   ORGANIZING AND MOVING ACROSS CNTRL MN INTO NWRN WI OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A CAPPING
   INVERSION IN PLACE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LOCATED IN THE 700 TO
   500 MB LAYER. THIS SUGGEST THE STORMS ARE HIGH-BASED AND ELEVATED IN
   NATURE. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP...700-500 MB LAPSE
   RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT
   SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
   WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
   
   45349171 44959413 44929547 45369611 45829612 46269568
   46639351 46699155 46059104

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 AM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NRN WI...UPPER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604...
   
   VALID 160904Z - 161030Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   TWO CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN AXIS OF ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MN ENEWD TO THE SRN EXTENT OF LAKE
   SUPERIOR WHERE MUCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THE
   ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A
   SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITHIN THE NOSE OF A
   60 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER ERN MN/NW WI
   AND UPPER MI HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE
   LAST HOUR. THE WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY A COMBINATION OF FACTORS
   INCLUDING DECREASING INSTABILITY FROM OVERNIGHT COOLING AND POSSIBLY
   COOL OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS STILL
   SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES IN PLACE. IN ADDITION... LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED
   ESPECIALLY OVER THE UP OF MI DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE STORMS
   ARE MOVING QUICKLY EWD. FOR THESE REASONS...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS AND HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...
   
   45638995 45429181 45469325 46099383 46779362 47169215
   47488955 47228640 45828642

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1528
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0540 AM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 161040Z - 161215Z
   
   A BOW ECHO CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ERN UPPER MI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
   QUICKLY ESEWD. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ALONG
   THE PATH OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. EXTREME NRN LOWER MI MAY BE
   IMPACTED AS THE MCS MOVES ESEWD REACHING NRN LAKE HURON IN 1 TO 2
   HOURS.
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS NRN WI AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH STRONG LIFT
   ASSOCIATED WITHIN THE NOSE OF A 60 TO 70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS
   SUPPORTING THE BOW ECHO IN ERN LOWER MI. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY DRAMATICALLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AND
   THE TREND FOR MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE EWD
   ACROSS LAKE HURON OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE
   SHORT-LINE SEGMENT SHOULD REMAIN INTENSE AND A BOW ECHO MAY REMAIN
   INTACT ACROSS EXTREME NRN LOWER MI AND THE NRN PART OF LAKE HURON.
   THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND FAST
   MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP A SEVERE THREAT
   GOING WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...
   
   45108276 45398524 45788578 46768545 46718353 46278186
   45138197

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR...SWRN MO AND FAR NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 161914Z - 162145Z
   
   CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY OVER THE REGION DURING
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
   SOME DMGG WIND GUST POTENTIAL...BUT LIMITED TSTM
   COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   VIS IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT MDT CU/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND AS A RESULT OF MODEST LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ALONG AN AXIS
   FROM SWRN MO SWD INTO ERN OK/WRN AR AND FAR NERN TX. ALONG THIS
   AXIS...MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS FORMED WITH TEMPERATURES FROM 95-100
   F AND DEWPTS NEAR 70 F SUPPORTING MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS...RECENT WV IMAGERY AND THE 12Z OBSERVED SGF
   SOUNDING INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   SWD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
   COVERAGE OF TSTMS. HOWEVER...COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND
   ISOLATED DMGG WIND POTENTIAL.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   33579585 34249620 35609629 36229559 36809430 36939345
   36089345 35029352 34419359 33659316 33289314 33059367
   33009381 33159514

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1530
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 162005Z - 162230Z
   
   ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN WEST OF TUS ARE ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD BEGIN
   POSING A SVR THREAT IN THE FEW HRS AS THEY MOVE WSWWD INTO LOWER
   ELEVATIONS. A WW IS THUS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
   
   24 HR SFC TRENDS ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPTS 4-12 DEG F HIGHER OVER
   PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SRN NV...NWRN AZ AND PHX
   METRO AREA DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS OVER SWRN AZ LAST NIGHT.
   MEANWHILE...TREND ANALYSIS SHOWS SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPTS OVER SERN AZ.
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM
   AREA...WHERE MINIMAL CINH EXISTS. LOWER ELEVATIONS STILL HAVE AROUND
   100 J/KG OF MLCINH /PER THE 18Z PHX SOUNDING/ BUT THIS SHOULD BE
   MINIMIZED BY MID AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED STRONG HEATING. REGIONAL
   VWP/S AND THE 18Z PHX SOUNDING INDICATE BETWEEN 25-35 KT OF ELY MID
   LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD FURTHER SUPPORT
   CONVECTION AND THEIR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS TO MOVE INTO LOWER
   ELEVATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
   /MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG/ COMBINED WITH AFOREMENTIONED WIND FIELDS
   SHOULD SUPPORT ENOUGH OF AN ORGANIZED DMGG WING THREAT WITH ANY
   CONVECTION THAT A WW IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...POSSIBLY AS
   EARLY AS 21Z. DESPITE APPROACHING UPPER VORT LOBE OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA
   THE SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE  MINIMAL OVER SERN AZ DUE TO LOWER
   DEWPTS AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY /AOB 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE/.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
   
   31591192 32371452 34551441 35381441 35461350 35591145
   34541129 33461137 32781139 31551147

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1531
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN MS...SERN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 162038Z - 162315Z
   
   SEVERAL LINES OF TSTMS WILL MOVE SSWWD AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS FAR SRN
   MS AND SERN LA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. ISOLATED DMGG WINDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   LATEST VWP DATA FROM JAN AND OKO PROFILER SHOWS 20-25 KTS OF NLY
   FLOW AT 500 MB TO THE WSW OF AN UPPER VORT CENTERED OVER WCENTRAL
   AL. WITH THIS FLOW FIELD MOVING SWD INTO THE AREA...ONGOING
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS SRN MS
   INTO NRN LA SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEARLY ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HRS AS IT MOVES ACROSS FAR SRN MS AND SERN/SCENTRAL LA. WITH
   PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000
   J/KG...ISOLATED DMGG WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/16/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   30368815 30718838 30519047 31059096 31389200 30859231
   30369241 29859206 28839090 28879006 29868868