Low Forming east of bahamas... northern end of old 96l Wave

[Aric Dunn]

There is a LLC forming or just above th surface east of the central Bahamas... there is Low level Turning.. and convection even though sheared has been persitant all day and the shear is very light infront of it.. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html You can use this site to see it... the turning has become better defined all day and may continue... but dont get your hopes up its very small an weak and the pressure are high. but the shear should weaken and reamin low.. take a look and let me know what everyone thinks... its intresting to watch the long loops and watch this break of from 96 the other day.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

This turning you are seeing is associated with the northern end of 96L becoming entangled with a rather strong TUTT clearly evident on water vapor near the Bahamas.

I would certainly look for no development any time soon with this strong upper trof in place.

[x-y-no]

Doesn't look too likely at the moment. There's a couple of outflow boundaries, and as you note it's still being sheared a bit.

[gatorcane]

There is a LLC forming or just above th surface east of the central Bahamas... there is Low level Turning.. and convection even though sheared has been persitant all day and the shear is very light infront of it.. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html You can use this site to see it... the turning has become better defined all day and may continue... but dont get your hopes up its very small an weak and the pressure are high. but the shear should weaken and reamin low.. take a look and let me know what everyone thinks... its intresting to watch the long loops and watch this break of from 96 the other day.

Unfortunately no matter how much you look and how hard you try to find something in those few cumulous clouds that spot the Atlantic, conditions are unfavorable across the entire Atlantic Basin from Florida to Africa -

The tropics are closed for business with no end in sight right now. The TUTT needs to leave and shear needs to relax not to mention the SAL is very dominating and the MJO core is still in the EPAC

[mvtrucking]

There is a LLC forming or just above th surface east of the central Bahamas... there is Low level Turning.. and convection even though sheared has been persitant all day and the shear is very light infront of it.. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html You can use this site to see it... the turning has become better defined all day and may continue... but dont get your hopes up its very small an weak and the pressure are high. but the shear should weaken and reamin low.. take a look and let me know what everyone thinks... its intresting to watch the long loops and watch this break of from 96 the other day.

Unfortunately no matter how much you look and how hard you try to find something in those few cumulous clouds that spot the Atlantic, conditions are unfavorable across the entire Atlantic Basin from Florida to Africa -

The tropics are closed for business with no end in sight right now. The TUTT needs to leave and shear needs to relax not to mention the SAL is very dominating and the MJO core is still in the EPAC

What a difference a year make's. I wonder if these negative conditions can continue well into August?

[Aric Dunn]

I agree with you the the TUTT is quite strong and in a bad position. and development is very unlikely and i did state that it is the northern end of 96.. however! as it continues to move west the shear dimishes and condition appear to possibly become more favorable and yeah im stretching here .. but ihave see this type of situation before thats why it cought my eye ... and there is turning at the surface ... just take a look ... and i do see the turning... on water vapor but that is not what im talking about.., and models to retrograde the TUTT west . and the shear is forcast to weaken as it heads west...... but hey im just watching things ...

[gatorcane]

There is a LLC forming or just above th surface east of the central Bahamas... there is Low level Turning.. and convection even though sheared has been persitant all day and the shear is very light infront of it.. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html You can use this site to see it... the turning has become better defined all day and may continue... but dont get your hopes up its very small an weak and the pressure are high. but the shear should weaken and reamin low.. take a look and let me know what everyone thinks... its intresting to watch the long loops and watch this break of from 96 the other day.

Unfortunately no matter how much you look and how hard you try to find something in those few cumulous clouds that spot the Atlantic, conditions are unfavorable across the entire Atlantic Basin from Florida to Africa -

The tropics are closed for business with no end in sight right now. The TUTT needs to leave and shear needs to relax not to mention the SAL is very dominating and the MJO core is still in the EPAC

What a difference a year make's. I wonder if these negative conditions can continue well into August?

it's possible but unlikely. If you look back at the "active years" which started in 1995 we avg about 15 storms a year. Since I believe we are still in the active phase then things should ramp up starting in August. There is also a slight negative relationship between inactive early seasons and active later seasons - that is an inactive early season could mean a strong finish. As other members have pointed out also, namely x-y-no, all signs are still pointing to an active season so we cannot put them aside just yet.

[boca]

Shear will win this battle and the wave should be gone by tomprrow. Unless shear relaxes some.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vir-1.html

[Stormcenter]

There is a LLC forming or just above th surface east of the central Bahamas... there is Low level Turning.. and convection even though sheared has been persitant all day and the shear is very light infront of it.. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html You can use this site to see it... the turning has become better defined all day and may continue... but dont get your hopes up its very small an weak and the pressure are high. but the shear should weaken and reamin low.. take a look and let me know what everyone thinks... its intresting to watch the long loops and watch this break of from 96 the other day.

Unfortunately no matter how much you look and how hard you try to find something in those few cumulous clouds that spot the Atlantic, conditions are unfavorable across the entire Atlantic Basin from Florida to Africa -

The tropics are closed for business with no end in sight right now. The TUTT needs to leave and shear needs to relax not to mention the SAL is very dominating and the MJO core is still in the EPAC

All I can say is WONDERFUL news!

[Rainband]

I agree, after last Year it would be nice for those ravaged by Storms to get a Break.

[SouthFloridawx]

New flare up in the Bahamas.. Looks similar to the flare up of the last tropical wave that came through Florida 2 days ago.

[JamesFromMaine2]

what a diffrence a year makes is right! Last year I remember every one thinking that almost everything had a chance unlike this year where every one is thinking nothing has a chance! Sooner or later something is going to get going and develop its just a matter of when!

[gatorcane]

the pattern is very similar to 2004. Tropical waves pass through and nothing but easterlies for Florida....

[Rainband]

the pattern is very similar to 2004. Tropical waves pass through and nothing but easterlies for Florida....

don't say 2004 I hope this isn't like 2004 or 2005. I think the entire basin could use a quiet year. Time will tell. It's early and I fear that this is "The calm before the storm"

[gatorcane]

the pattern is very similar to 2004. Tropical waves pass through and nothing but easterlies for Florida....

don't say 2004 I hope this isn't like 2004 or 2005. I think the entire basin could use a quiet year. Time will tell. It's early and I fear that this is "The calm before the storm"

I hope it is quiet but I agree - we are in this "calm before the storm" as far as the Atlantic is concerned...

[NDG]

the pattern is very similar to 2004. Tropical waves pass through and nothing but easterlies for Florida....

I agree with you, 2004 also had a very persistant eastern US trough during July & August, and just like 2004 I expect ridging to take over the east coast & western Atlantic sometime in August and into September and that could mean more FL & Gulfcoast landfalling storms.