Tropical Depression Carlotta (04E) in EPAC

[HurricaneHunter914]

Oh well, even though Carlotta is dying, we have another wave in the EPAC to watch.

[clfenwi]

WTPZ44 KNHC 141428
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006

THE NORTHERN HALF OF CARLOTTA'S CIRCULATION IS OVER COOL WATERS AND
DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CYCLONE. T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN AS FAST AS DVORAK RULES ALLOW
AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT)...LATEST VERSION...FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS AVERAGED NUMBERS AROUND 3.2 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 65
KNOTS AND THIS APPEARS TO BE CONSERVATIVE SINCE THE SYSTEM MAY BE
BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY AS WE SPEAK. CARLOTTA'S ENTIRE
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 TO 24
HOURS...SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED...AND THIS COULD OCCUR FASTER
THAN FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A TURN
MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 18.4N 113.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 18.8N 117.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 119.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 19.5N 125.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 19/1200Z 20.0N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[RQSTR]

yes it's a hurricane right now (nhc website).

[Hurricanehink]

NRL says it's down to TS status.

[Cyclenall]

It looks alright to me but that's just it, looks. It reminds me of a major hurricane that is weakening.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 142031
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006

CARLOTTA HAS BECOME A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT
60 KNOTS. CARLOTTA'S ENTIRE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO WEAKENING IS
INDICATED...AND THIS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN
AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THEN...A
TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 18.6N 114.4W 60 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.9N 115.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 18/1800Z 19.6N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 19/1800Z 19.5N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[AnnularCane]

She actually doesn't look too bad right now for a weakening storm. She's quite beautiful, and has more convection than Bud.

[Cyclenall]

She actually doesn't look too bad right now for a weakening storm. She's quite beautiful, and has more convection than Bud.

I know, that's the first thing that I thought of when I first saw Carlotta this morning.

What really doesn't make sense is why she never bombed. The first time everything was set and Carlotta did nothing. The second time, surprise shear! That made her look ugly too.

[whereverwx]

She actually looks "kind of good..." as you can see in this 34 hour (68 frame) loop.

[mtm4319]

Looks much better now than 7 hours ago, with symmetrical convection and an eye-like spot:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t8/loop-avn.html

[Cyclenall]

I have to agree, she looks like a hurricane right now. I would put her at 80 Knots currently since there is a eye. I doubt she is weakening currently.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Starting to look like Bud right now when he was stronger. Nice ring of convection around a developing eye. I would go with 80 to 85 knots.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like she's not over yet!

[AnnularCane]

Oh good, so maybe I'm not crazy. I kept hearing how she was getting weaker, but it didn't look like it to me!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Hear are my chances for Tropical Storm Carlotta:

Tropoical Storm - 100%
Hurricane - 80%
Major Hurricane - 15%
Cat-5 - .5%
Disappating in the Next 24 hrs - 45%

My numbers have decreased since it seems that Carlotta is moving into some cooler waters which wil prevent any further development.

[cycloneye]

Charlotta ia a hurricane again as NRL has it a 70kts.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Cyclenall]

Charlotta ia a hurricane again as NRL has it a 70kts.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

I saw that and I like that. It should be at 80 Knots though. Let's hope she aims for category 2 strength.

[AnnularCane]

Atta girl Carly!

Just when I think I have her figured out, I find out I don't.

[cycloneye]

243
WTPZ44 KNHC 150231
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006

SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTEDLY...CARLOTTA HAS MADE A COMEBACK THIS EVENING.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR
THE CENTER...AND A CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS DEVELOPED. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT FROM TAFB...AND ARE 65
KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS...CARLOTTA IS UPGRADED TO A
70-KT HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN
ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT IS POOR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/9. CARLOTTA REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES...AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. THE STORM IS ALSO
APPROACHING THE NORMAL STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO
STAY PRESENT NORTH OF CARLOTTA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH CAUSED BY THE HANDLING
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD TURN CARLOTTA WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING THE WESTWARD MOTION AS
CARLOTTA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER. HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AFTER ABOUT 48 HR...THE
NOGAPS CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE GFDL CALLS FOR A
SOUTHWARD MOTION...THE UKMET A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...
AND THE BAMS A FASTER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH A WESTWARD MOTION OF
6-8 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

CARLOTTA SHOULD REACH THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN A
FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES FROM NCEP IN WASHINGTON DC SHOW A
COLD WATER EDDY AHEAD OF CARLOTTA...AND IF THE STORM PASSES OVER
THIS FEATURES IT COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 18.9N 115.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 19.5N 120.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 19/0000Z 19.5N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 20/0000Z 19.5N 130.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Good job, fight back Carlotta, learn from Epsilon!!!