Tropical Depression Carlotta (04E) in EPAC

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Good job, fight back Carlotta, learn from Epsilon!!!

Learn from Epsilon...LOL THAT was a tenacious storm that
refused to die.

[Cyclenall]

Well now she is taking a page from Bud by weakening again. What's up with this tropical cyclone? It goes back and forth every 6 hours.

[Coredesat]

Well now she is taking a page from Bud by weakening again. What's up with this tropical cyclone? It goes back and forth every 6 hours.

I hate to say it, but Epsilon did the exact same thing.

[cycloneye]

856
WTPZ44 KNHC 151426
TCDEP4
HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA CONTINUE TO WARM INDICATING GRADUAL
WEAKENING. STILL...A RELATIVE WARM SPOT IS SEEN NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION IMPLYING CARLOTTA IS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON TO HURRICANE
STATUS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 4.5 OR 77 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB TO 4.0 OR 65 KT FROM
AFWA. IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE CARLOTTA BEING A 77 KT HURRICANE GIVEN
THE DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT IN LINE WITH THE LOWER END OF THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE RAW ODT VALUES. WHILE SATELLITE BASED
SST ESTIMATES SHOW A SMALL AREA OF MARGINALLY WARM WATER IN THE
VICINITY OF CARLOTTA...THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE OVER MUCH COOLER
WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING MAKING
CARLOTTA A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS.

CARLOTTA APPEARS TO MOVING A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE WEST YIELDING AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/09. IN FACT...THE LAST COUPLE OF
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS IMPLIES
THAT THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STEERING THE CYCLONE IS A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW CARLOTTA CONTINUING TO MAKE SOME POLEWARD PROGRESS THROUGH 24
TO 36 HOURS. IN LIGHT OF THE PRESENT TRENDS IN MOTION...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND LIES ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A DUE WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN LINE WITH THE BAM
SHALLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 18.8N 117.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 119.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 19.2N 121.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 19.2N 123.4W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 19.2N 125.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 18/1200Z 19.2N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL at 18:00z has it below hurricane status,55kts.

[AnnularCane]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL at 18:00z has it below hurricane status,55kts.

Not surprised. She appears to be doing another Bud imitation and getting naked.

She did a good job holding onto that convection though.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA HAS BECOME SEPERATED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT CARLOTTA HAS SUCCUMED TO COOLER
WATERS AND STABLE AIR AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
55 KT. THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT CARLOTTA WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO REGENERATE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER...AND
WEAKENING IS SHOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS. CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/09. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK DUE TO A SMALL NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 19.4N 118.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 19.6N 120.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 19.8N 122.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 19.8N 124.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 19.8N 126.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 161407
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006

EXCEPT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...CARLOTTA HAS
BEEN ESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 12-18
HOURS. THE REMAINING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT BASED ON THE UW CIMMS
AODT ESTIMATE OF 28 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT
285/10. WITH THE CYCLONE QUICKLY BECOMING VERTICALLY SHALLOW...IT
SHOULD BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72
HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 20.2N 121.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 20.6N 123.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/1200Z 20.9N 125.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/1200Z 21.0N 128.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART

[cycloneye]

TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006

DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE LARGE SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
30 KT. HOWEVER...THE INABILITY TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION WILL
RESULT IN THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN AND BECOMING A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS OVER COOLER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 285/10. OWING TO ITS NOW
VERTICALLY SHALLOW STRUCTURE...CARLOTTA WILL BE STEERED BY THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 20.4N 122.4W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 17/0600Z 20.8N 123.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 17/1800Z 21.1N 125.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/0600Z 21.1N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 18/1800Z 21.1N 129.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART



No RIP yet but it's comming in a few hours.

[Cyclenall]

It's going to die with discussion number 21 just like Bud did. However, Carlotta lasted longer because she didn't ever have a special discussion number but Bud did so Carlotta is a bit older then Bud before death. I wonder if invest 91E will form before her death so that we have a steady flow of storms and no amount of time without a TC in the EPAC since Bud formed.

[AnnularCane]

She's still such a beautiful storm...if she can still be called a storm.

[cycloneye]

TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042006
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES DEPICTS CARLOTTA AS A LARGE DISTINCT
SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM
THE CYCLONE FOR 24 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK AROUND 10 KT...BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND
WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
CARLOTTA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 20.9N 123.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 21.3N 124.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.4N 126.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 18/1200Z 21.4N 128.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN


Final RIP.See you in 2012.