Tropical Depression Bud (03E) in EPAC

WindRunner · #221 Postby **WindRunner** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 10:09 am

Well, "near lack of convection" is certainly the truth.

#222 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:20 pm

You're almost gone, Bud it was nice knowing you. See you in 2012!!!

Cyclenall · #223 Postby **Cyclenall** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 12:58 pm

He looks worse then most tropical depressions. Weakest looking 55 Knot storm I have ever seen. Soon there will just clouds and no convection.

#224 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 3:40 pm

964
WTPZ43 KNHC 142032
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006

WITH THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS...STABLE AIR AND MODERATE
SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BUD IS LIGHT ON DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DROP QUICKLY WITH CURRENT VALUES OF 45-55 KT
AND DATA T-NUMBERS OF 30-35 KT. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT 40 KT.
TROPICAL STORM BUD'S TRACK IS NOW CLOSER TO A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY
AT ABOUT 12 KT.

BUD SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC HIGH. THE TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE GFSI AND GFDI MODELS WHICH SHOW A GOOD
REPRESENTATION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TO
UNWIND AND LIKELY WILL DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE SHORTLY. A
REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FIVE
DAYS OR LESS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS AND GFDI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 19.8N 128.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 20.2N 130.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 20.4N 133.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 16/0600Z 20.5N 135.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 16/1800Z 20.6N 138.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 17/1800Z 20.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 18/1800Z 20.0N 150.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 19/1800Z 20.0N 155.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

#225 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 9:35 pm

242
WTPZ43 KNHC 150232
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006

THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION
LINGERING APPROXIMATELY 40 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. VISIBLE ANIMATION REVEALS STABLE MARINE LAYER
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BESIDES THE COOLER
SSTS...A BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING
BUD. BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LEFT OVER 35 KT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTH
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280 AT 14 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN
THE LOW LAYER FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE GFDN...INDICATE THAT BUD WILL
OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT
WITH DISSIPATION AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF
THE MODELS. AS A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE...THE
NOGAPS...GFS...AND CMC SUGGEST A TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET DISSIPATES THE TROUGH
BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS AND THE ECMWF AND GFDL INDICATE A SOUTH
OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 20.1N 130.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 20.2N 131.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 20.4N 134.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 16/1200Z 20.5N 136.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 139.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.5N 145.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

whereverwx · #226 Postby **whereverwx** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:10 pm

He sure is Bud naked!

#227 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:41 pm

calamity wrote:He sure is Bud naked!

XXX in the tropics!!!

#228 Postby **AnnularCane** » Fri Jul 14, 2006 11:47 pm

Poor little Bud. He's dying, naked, and everybody is staring at him.

Cyclenall · #229 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 12:48 am

AnnularCane wrote:Poor little Bud. He's dying, naked, and everybody is staring at him.

That was funny.

XXX in the tropics!!!

Mn said Cindy was naked last year just before landfall. Now that's XXX in the tropics. Alberto had a naked swirl as well.

Cyclenall · #230 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 2:08 am

Bud is now a tropical depression with 30 knots. He looks like nothing now except clouds.

Coredesat · #231 Postby **Coredesat** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 3:02 am

Looks like it's almost closing time for ol' Bud, then. 8-)

#232 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 9:35 am

784
WTPZ43 KNHC 151421
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006

BUD HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO AND
CURRENTLY...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
BUD IS RAPIDLY BECOMING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES OVER COLD
WATERS.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRACK ABOUT 13
KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 20.6N 132.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 21.0N 135.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 138.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/0000Z 21.0N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

#233 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 3:36 pm

WTPZ43 KNHC 152031
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032006
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006

BUD IS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25
KNOTS ALTHOUGH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.

THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRACK ABOUT 13
KNOTS OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
BUD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 21.1N 134.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 21.5N 136.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 16/1800Z 21.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 17/0600Z 21.5N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

RIP.See you at 2012.

#234 Postby **Andrew92** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 9:32 pm

Bud,

congratulations on making to hurricane status for the first time ever, but see ya in 2012 and good riddance nonetheless.

Cyclenall · #235 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 10:30 pm

Andrew92 wrote:Bud, congratulations on making to hurricane status for the first time ever, but see ya in 2012 and good riddance nonetheless.

What did he ever do you you? :lol:

(or anyone else for that matter)

Bud is now a weak piece of clouds and mess. RIP Bud.

#236 Postby **AnnularCane** » Sat Jul 15, 2006 11:33 pm

So long Bud. You were a good boy.

Looks like your sister will be joining you soon.

#237 Postby **Andrew92** » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:30 am

Cyclenall wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:Bud, congratulations on making to hurricane status for the first time ever, but see ya in 2012 and good riddance nonetheless.

What did he ever do you you? (or anyone else for that matter)

Bud is now a weak piece of clouds and mess. RIP Bud.

Nothing, but he's still a storm.....I just like to say that for humor you know.

-Andrew92

Tropical Depression Bud (03E) in EPAC

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