Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[Coredesat]

New invest just popped up on NRL:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html



From last night's 10 PM TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[RattleMan]

For about 10 minutes, 91E also appeared as 91L. I noticed this and got all worked up, then saw it was an error. The 91L error is off the NRL now.

[Coredesat]

Yeah, I figured as much. Although as invest-happy as NRL's been, I wouldn't be surprised if 97L, 98L, 99L, and 90L had happened, but only for a few seconds at a time.

[clfenwi]

16/0600 UTC 12.1N 105.3W T1.5/1.5 91E -- East Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 161030
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO...IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THE
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT...AND THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

TWD:

LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N105W IS LOCATED ON A WAVE AXIS THAT EXTENDS
FROM 4N105W TO 15N104.5W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HRS. NO WELL ORGANIZED BANDING
IS PRESENTLY NOTED...HOWEVER SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE
OF LINE 12N108W 15N106W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N102W 16N97W...AND OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 45 NM OF 15N94W.

Daniel, anyone?!?!?!?!?!

[bombarderoazul]

It it continues moving west it can probably avoid the fate of the previous storms that sucumbed to cool waters.

[Cyclenall]

It's about time this system became invest 91E. I knew in the morning this had to be present on the NRL site. It should form tomorrow if not tonight IMO.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PHNC 161430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 161421Z JUL 06//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 106.1W TO 13.2N 109.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 106.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 12.4N 106.2W, APPROXIMATELY
450 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161139Z TRMM
MICROWAVE PASS SHOW SPIRALING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171430Z.//



NEXT NAME: DANIEL

[bombarderoazul]

It should be declared a TD soon.

[Cyclenall]

I'm just going to quote myself here from the other topic:

I really do think this will be the next depression. It's just so likely that it will become a tropical cyclone sometime. I peg development at 87% (I'm very sure on this one). 3-5 models are also picking up on this system. GFS is all over it too.

It should be a invest right now.

Well now that there is a TCFA I'm going to now peg development at 96%.

It should form tomorrow if not tonight IMO.

Well now I don't think it will form tomorrow. Could be as early as this afternoon.[/quote]

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


From 10:00 AM PDT TWO.

[HURAKAN]

A burst of convection & you will get TD 5-E.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, the EPAC is cooking!

[Epsilon_Fan]

this one seems well on its way to TD world

[CrazyC83]

Daniel seems just around the corner...

[curtadams]

That's got to be a TD already, maybe a tropical storm. You can see cyclonic turning over at least 4 degrees of latitude.

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 730 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.



4:00 PM PDT TWO for 91E invest.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

We have TD 5-E.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Good I hope this becomes a very strong hurricane.