Too Quiet For Me ... Starting to Spook Me Some

[skysummit]

Beachbum...I'm sure it's right. Right now at 10:04am CDT, I have 92.3 on my digital readout in the shade. Our heat index down here will probably be approaching 105 - 110 degrees today. I dread August! Last year, our heat index hit 121 one day!

[george_r_1961]

Kudos to all who say this is so far a NORMAL year. I think a lot of people after last year expect a parade of storms across the basin in mid July. My words for season 2006: Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Use this quiet time to review your hurricane plan.

[rainstorm]

remain ever vigilant

[kenl01]

Jeff Masters was correct about his analysis I read back in early June concerning a "slow start to the season" (forget Alberto)

He referred to the overall atmospheric conditions such as cooler water, shear tendencies and the tropical wave train (ITCZ) being displaced further south this year to indicate a slow start.

That is correct so far.


In fact, his latest update today, he mentioned:

"Wind shear is a very high 20 - 40 knots across most of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Shear is expected to stay high in these regions for at least the next six days, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic during this period.

Enjoy the quiet time!"

[Bane]

I'm directly on the Mississippi Gulf Coast and people are starting to get a little nervous (at least the ones I've talked to) about how quiet it is in the tropics for mid July. On top of it being so quiet it's hot as hell and the GOM waters are very warm.

This is normal for July.

[beachbum_al]

I'm directly on the Mississippi Gulf Coast and people are starting to get a little nervous (at least the ones I've talked to) about how quiet it is in the tropics for mid July. On top of it being so quiet it's hot as hell and the GOM waters are very warm.

This is normal for July.

Yes, it is norml like I stated earlier but considering what these people went through along the Gulf Coast last year I can understand why they are nervous.

[drezee]

Until these two indices flip...expect little to no development...

Shear is well above average


Vertical instablity is well below

[shaggy]

I forgot how dry it was last year but I do not remember it being this stiffly hot feeling. The heat is unbearable. IT is 10am in Fairhope right now and I have 88 degrees registering on my weather channel desktop. I don't know if it is right but it is hot.

lastnight after a poker game i was taking my brother home at 1am and it was 81 degrees with aheat index of 84 so it is a very hot summer so far and the next week is forecast to be worse!

[Mattie]

Last night at 9:15 it was still 95 degrees in Dallas . . . . At 1:30 a.m. it dropped to 83. I was out doing flower bed maintenance because it gets so hot during the early morning hours. It is already 96 degrees at 11:23 a.m.

[jes]

The weather man here in Mobile said that our drought is the worst on record. We didn't have spring showers, nor are we getting afternoon thunderstorms. The heat is unbearable. I agree with beach bum it is a strange kind of heat. Wonder why.

[NDG]

Until these two indices flip...expect little to no development...

Shear is well above average


Vertical instablity is well below

If you guys notice the graphic, you can understand why so many people, weather amateaurs like me, were concerned in the early season about having another early busy season, when most of May and early June, windshear was well below climatology and instabillity was above as well. So the experts were right about windshear going up & SST getting closer to anomaly in the months of late June & July.

[LaPlaceFF]

remain ever vigilant

AMEN!!!

[southerngale]

Bluefrog lost her home to Katrina's surge last year...she lost everything. So it is NATURAL and NORMAL for her to be very nervous this year, for whatever reason, and there are many others here in the same boat. She went through hell last year. So how about we show a little compassion and not snap at her for voicing her concerns among her weather buddies of several years. She doesn't even post that often.

This wouldn't have happened a few years ago...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=82756

Sorry, but a few of the responses really irked me!

[beachbum_al]

Bluefrog lost her home to Katrina's surge last year...she lost everything. So it is NATURAL and NORMAL for her to be very nervous this year, for whatever reason, and there are many others here in the same boat. She went through hell last year. So how about we show a little compassion and not snap at her for voicing her concerns among her weather buddies of several years. She doesn't even post that often.

This wouldn't have happened a few years ago...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=82756

Sorry, but a few of the responses really irked me!

Dont' worry southerngale. I agree with you on this and I can only imagine what my neighbors to the West are going through. I know how I felt after Ivan and I didn't lose my home. Everytime a hurricane was in the Gulf last year I would freak out because I kept thinking this is it.

[Bluefrog]

Thanks for the "back up" guys. I know it's normal for this time of the year I never said it wasn't. It's just that the tropics are quiet and it's so hot and it's getting close to August so people are starting to talk about hurricanes forming. Most people link the extreme hot temps to bad hurricane seasons (be it right or wrong ... so don't slam me on that comment). I just was making a comment that some people are starting to get a little uneasy because of what we went thru with Katrina.

[Bane]

Bluefrog, it's natural to feel like that. We had 5 hurricanes in 6 years on the NC coastline in the late '90s. Just stay prepared.

[timNms]

What Tiff means is the weather around here is just like it was last year. Ask me if I will pray for rain this year. NO!

I've always heard people say "be careful what you pray for"... Looks you ain't gonna be guilty of that, huh?

[DanKellFla]

I seem to recall hapilly living like this before 2004. No anticipation.... no media barage... just the yearly announcement to go buy water and batteries. That was good. And, I never felt spooked then. But, in reality, this isn't all that unusual and like other said, we still have a ways to go.

[Nimbus]

According to this link the sea surface temperatures are only about a degree warmer than normal in the gulf.

https://www.navo.navy.mil/cgi-bin/graph ... 8/0-0-10/2

Wonder where all that extra solar energy is going?

[mountainspring]

2004 and 2005 In my opinion were very active seasons, and 2005 being the most storms and hurricanes i can recall in my 19 years in Florida.

I am speaking strictly from my experience from the Florida west coast.

I don't remember much times before those years that I watched the weather with so much concern.

I for one am very happy this year so far that things are quiet as my nerves cant seem to take another season as last year.

I agree 1000%. We moved to Tampa a week before Charley hit in 2004. It's been like an awful roller coaster ride. And just when the hurricane season ends and you think you're safe ... you get your new homeowner's insurance bill from Citizens!