NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE/GALE AREA, S of NS

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Thunder44
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#21 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jul 16, 2006 7:45 am

We have clusters of showers and thunderstorm firing ahead of a frontal boundary with two weak low pressure centers, one south of New England and the other east of the Carolinas. It seems that the most concretated area is around 33N 74W this morning. Whether this can become separate feature in the next few days from the front remains to be seen. But I wouldn't expect TPC to be talking about it yet.
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#22 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Jul 16, 2006 10:42 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS AND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE WARM
GULFSTREAM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME
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#23 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jul 16, 2006 10:56 am

no one mentioned on here the NHC has recon planned for tuesday? well they do...
071
NOUS42 KNHC 161500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 16 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-047

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY..POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 18/1800Z NEAR 35N 72W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
RMH
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#24 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:05 am

A lot of convection currently firing over the Gulf Stream...


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

CMC -
Image

FSU MM5
Image

NOGAPS
Image

UKMET
Image
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#25 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:10 am

I went back to the archives of my local NWS and pulled out the only long-term discussion I could find until roughly 3 P.M. today, from the NWS in Newport/Morehead City, NC:
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MDLS STRT TO DIVRG MON
NGT. GFS DVLPS SFC LO ON BNDRY AND MVS IT NE. NAM ALSO DVLPS LO ON
THE BNDRY...BUT THEN RETROGRADE IT BACK TWRD NC BY TUE AFTN. NAM
DVLPG LO/S OVR THE WTRS PAST CPL OF WKS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART NOT
VERIFYING THEM. APPRS CURRNT GRIDS GOING WI GFS...SO WL CONT TREND
IN THE XTNDD PD. GFS HAS A PCPN BULLSEYE JUST N OF CWA ON WED AM.
BERMUDA RDG BLDG BACK IN ON THU FOR A RTRN OF NOCTURNAL CBRZ ACTVTY.
GFS AGAIN SHOWG SUM PSBL FEEDBACK ISSUES FRI NGT.

That is the 2 A.M. Update before the NHC came out with all the stuff on the blob...I'll post the 3 P.M. when it comes out provided there is actually something interesting in it...
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#26 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:26 am

Image
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#27 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:30 am

Invest 97L later this afternoon or tonight IMO.
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#28 Postby skysummit » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:33 am

Looking at the steering layers, is it possible that if something forms, it could meander there for a while? If it drifts southward or southeastward a bit, it could then move back to the west also. Right now, steering patterns look rather weak just to its south.
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#29 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:35 am

cycloneye wrote:Invest 97L later this afternoon or tonight IMO.


Yep I agree..

IMO steering layers in the mid to lower levels indicate that this area isn't going to move anywhere very quickly. I believe when your look at a possible developing system you want to look towards the mid levels for stearing and there is not much steering this right now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html
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#30 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:45 am

according to the shear map I just looked at, there is 30 knots of shear over part of this system, is that correct?: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
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#31 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:46 am

brunota2003 wrote:according to the shear map I just looked at, there is 30 knots of shear over part of this system, is that correct?: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html


Wow... 20-30kts of shear and the nhc indicating some slow development is possible. With that much shear I would probably write it off. I guess we'll see what happens.

GFS is indicating that windshear around this area is going to lighten up a bit. To 10-20kts

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024m.gif
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#32 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:51 am

Shear is somewhat less at mid-levels mind you and I'd thought with a fairly unorganised system thats the sort of levels we are talking about.
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#33 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:53 am

From Dr. Jeff Masters:
It's another quiet Sunday for the tropical Atlantic. The impressive line of thunderstorms brewing off the coast of the Carolinas is associated with a cold front. An extratropical or subtropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front by Monday, then push slowly up the East Coast during the week. This system is not a threat to become a tropical storm today--there's too much wind shear, cold air, and cool water. However, the Hurricane Center is giving it the chance of slowly acquiring tropical characteristics if it can remain south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina for the next two days.

Wind shear is a very high 20 - 40 knots across most of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Shear is expected to stay high in these regions for at least the next six days, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic during this period. Enjoy the quiet time!

I've linked a photo of an odd fog formation a wunderphotographer in Alaska took--I've never seen anything like this photo! It shows very graphically what strong wind shear can do to contort a cloud into strange shapes. The wind speed and direction are different at the bottom of this fog bank than at the top, creating a twisting, shearing effect on the cloud that bends it into strange shapes. Now imagine what strong wind shear can do to a developing tropical depression--ouch!

Jeff Masters
Source: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200607
go take a look at the photo of the fog he has on there that he was talking about imagining was a TD and what wind shear would do to it...pretty impressive
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#34 Postby drezee » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:55 am

brunota2003 wrote:no one mentioned on here the NHC has recon planned for tuesday? well they do...


Actually, I did but there are two threads about the same exact thing so....

drezee wrote:Excuse me NHC...Would you speak into my good ear?...Do you say Recon?
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#35 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:57 am

drezee wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:no one mentioned on here the NHC has recon planned for tuesday? well they do...


Actually, I did but there are two threads about the same exact thing so....

drezee wrote:Excuse me NHC...Would you speak into my good ear?...Do you say Recon?
I know...I just couldnt believe no one mentioned it in the thread thats been here the longest about this area...thats all...
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#36 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sun Jul 16, 2006 12:00 pm

brunota2003 wrote:according to the shear map I just looked at, there is 30 knots of shear over part of this system, is that correct?: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

This is an old map brunota2003...this is from 11:00 YESTERDAY...read the bottom of the map....
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#37 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jul 16, 2006 12:03 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:according to the shear map I just looked at, there is 30 knots of shear over part of this system, is that correct?: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

This is an old map brunota2003...this is from 11:00 YESTERDAY...read the bottom of the map....
I see...wonder why they havent updated...hmmm...
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#38 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Jul 16, 2006 12:12 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:according to the shear map I just looked at, there is 30 knots of shear over part of this system, is that correct?: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

This is an old map brunota2003...this is from 11:00 YESTERDAY...read the bottom of the map....
I see...wonder why they havent updated...hmmm...


Then use the 00 hour on the 12Z GFS at 300mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif
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#39 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Jul 16, 2006 1:00 pm

I emailed the NHC to see if they could move the floater to this area, as there is nothing to be watched on floater #2.
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#40 Postby Aquawind » Sun Jul 16, 2006 1:05 pm

Hey that's Dixiebreeeze's job! They are gonna love ya for sending it on a sunday! :lol: :lol: 8-)


Direct all questions and comments regarding these images to the NESDIS Satellite Services Division at SSDWebmaster@noaa.gov and SABWebmaster@noaa.gov.
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