NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE/GALE AREA, S of NS

[SouthFloridawx]

Hey that's Dixiebreeeze's job! They are gonna love ya for sending it on a sunday!


Direct all questions and comments regarding these images to the NESDIS Satellite Services Division at SSDWebmaster@noaa.gov and SABWebmaster@noaa.gov.

LOL oh great.. I'll have to change my email address now.

I'll email the address you have indicated above.

[SouthFloridawx]

Deep convection bloomed then diminished, now a small area at the center of the overall convection is deepening again.

East coast "rainbow" sat loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-rb.html

Right now does not seem to be much steering it, just a slight southward drift to the small blob, with easterly flow drawing some fringes off the southern end toward Florida, but no real convection on the coast at this time.

Might not be much chance of development, but an area to keep an eye on perhaps.

Taken from the other thread.

I would be suprised to see how far thunderstorm development pushes south. As long as convection continues to fire over an area it is obviously necessary to watch it.

[Recurve]

WV loop shows just some streams of fairly moist air getting to florida, with a dry slot over extreme S Florida/Keys, between what looks like an ULL over Cuba and this moist mass off the SE coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[SouthFloridawx]

WV loop shows just some streams of fairly moist air getting to florida, with a dry slot over extreme S Florida/Keys, between what looks like an ULL over Cuba and this moist mass off the SE coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Definitely Upper Level Troughiness going on there

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

[beachbum_al]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Is it me or does that map show thunderstorms moving to the south? Also the flare up of thunderstorms in the panhandle. WOW! Of course I know it is just thunderstorms.

[SouthFloridawx]

I would be willing to be that in the next model runs or in the 00Z they will indicate a more weak stearing flow for this system and make this area more stationary as the trough is pulling out and high pressure should be building above the "complex of thunderstorms" as the bermuda high get support from high pressure over the united states. IMO

[Weatherfreak000]

Well I knew the NHC would have to finally bite on this.


Any opinions from pro mets? I'd have to say we're looking at a nice system, good probablity for at least Subtropical Development.

[Recurve]

Sure seems to be mid-level (?) flow moving the moisture streams westward and a little south. Totally untrained eye here, wondering how if that convection increases into something it would get steered northeastward -- guess a trough or front is expected to pick "it" (if it becomes an it) up?

[SouthFloridawx]

Sure seems to be mid-level (?) flow moving the moisture streams westward and a little south. Totally untrained eye here, wondering how if that convection increases into something it would get steered northeastward -- guess a trough or front is expected to pick "it" (if it becomes an it) up?

IMO the trough is not going to pick this are up as high pressure is building over the US and the strong bermuda high is built and is clearly evident where I live as we have a pretty strong easterly flow here in Palm Beach County. This area of convection is not going to move out with the trough..

[Recurve]

Nearly opposite (low level) steering flow above and below this area, if it drifts south at all, looks to get steered toward Florida, if I'm seeing this right.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

[Ivanhater]

Wow, things change fast in the tropics!

[GeneratorPower]

Wow, things change fast in the tropics!

It seems to me the amount of time it takes for things to change is generally about 24 hours. You can go from zippo to a "bear watch" within 24 hours, and to a TD in about 48 hours.

That's why it's to important to have a circumspect mindset towards the weather. So many things in life seem like they will never happen. Then they do.

The problem is, we forget this very quickly.

[Ivanhater]

This is about the same area Alex formed in 2004 around July31st...

[HurricaneHunter914]

This system for some reason should increase FL's rain chances over the next few days.

[Recurve]

Looking at the steering some more, if this gets going, it's got nowhere to go at this point except toward Florida -- until the steering changes of course....right now all layers mostly from low to deep layer steering goes from that area toward the west. If a weak system develops, mostly lower level flow would loop it south then west it looks like....but of course there's really nothing to steer yet and likely won't be (my hope).

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

>>>amateur analysis only, pay attention to pro mets for actual intelligence<<<

[Opal storm]

For what it's worth,TWC just said that it will remian non-tropical and move out to sea.

[Nimbus]

Does seem to be cutting off from the front. Slow development could mean some rain for Florida with the current steering. Just another blob without a circulation at the moment though.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 162114
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY
FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. THE FIRST
LOW...CENTERED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD
MASSACHUSETTS...WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEFORE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR.
THE SECOND LOW...CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECOND LOW IS POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

[Thunder44]

For what it's worth,TWC just said that it will remian non-tropical and move out to sea.

That was from non-tropical and montone weather expert Cheryl Lemeke.

[Ivanhater]

Wow, looking at the new TWO, it looks like this one might actually make it...this will just sit for a while with favorable conditions. This has my attention