NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE/GALE AREA, S of NS

[cycloneye]

For what it's worth,TWC just said that it will remian non-tropical and move out to sea.

That was from non-tropical and montone weather expert Cheryl Lemeke.

She should haved waited for the 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

[Ivanhater]

Wow, looking at the new TWO, it looks like this one might actually make it...this will just sit for a while with favorable conditions. This has my attention

[kenl01]

Hah ! I don't expect anything outa this one guys - that little low 200 miles south of Cape Hatteras ?

More than likely it will move away from this area in the next few days, even if slow development does occur.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday

[storms in NC]

It will be good to watch.But it will be going out to sea Not Fla.

[boca]

So far no steering flow in that area. Our system is between 2 steering flows.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... dlm1Z.html

[SouthFloridawx]

I would be willing to be that in the next model runs or in the 00Z they will indicate a more weak stearing flow for this system and make this area more stationary as the trough is pulling out and high pressure should be building above the "complex of thunderstorms" as the bermuda high get support from high pressure over the united states. IMO

I'll wait for model support but, I think I was right.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 162114
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY
FRONTAL SYSTEM...EXTENDS FROM OFF THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT. THE FIRST
LOW...CENTERED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD
MASSACHUSETTS...WILL LIKELY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEFORE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR.
THE SECOND LOW...CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECOND LOW IS POSSIBLE.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/96.html
The system at 37 north/68 west is moving along the gulf stream...It appears to have blown up a area of convection over its eastern side. This reminds me of a system that formed in 2002 around this time. The FSU cyclone phase shows it to be warm core.

Also it has a large/broad surface circ. Most likely subtropical...

System two just off Ga/SC 32.5/75 west...Showing some signs of a LLC on surface obs around the area. Deepest area of convection to the southwest...

1# This system should head out to sea over the next 24 hours...Into colder water...Not likely to be upgraded.

2# Should move slowly northward over the next 3 to 4 days. Very interesting system should be watched closely.

Yes these systems are on a frontal system...But frontal systems have been known to form cyclones on them.

[SouthFloridawx]

Compliments of:
http://www.wxforecaster.com/hurricane/

[storms in NC]

Fla folks I think you all have had you share for the last what 3-4 years now? You all need a break. To work on what has been done to you all. That takes time. I do beleave that the east coast will have theirs again now. It seem to work that way. And yes the gulf coast will have a few but not like they been haveing. Just what I think in my gut.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here is my take on the this area.

The first area of low pressure is going to pull out with the trough. The second area of low pressure is blocked as high pressure builds over the eastern US. The Bermuda High is building back in as the trough along the east coast pulls out. These two areas of high pressure creates a blocking pattern that creates very weak steering patterns for this area of low pressure. It remains to be seen by me if this system will go warm core but, models are indicating that a warm core system is going to be there.

I am waiting for the 18Z and 00Z to get a better idea of what is going on.



If you take a look at this water vapor loop you might get an idea of what I'm talking about.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

If any pro-mets want to chime in and tell me if my thinking is right here.



High Pressure Currently over the US

High Pressure Building westward


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/TSA_latestBW.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will say this that the second system may become Beryl. The first I will not say no more.

[wxman57]

Here is my take on the this area.

The first area of low pressure is going to pull out with the trough. The second area of low pressure is blocked as high pressure builds over the eastern US. The Bermuda High is building back in as the trough along the east coast pulls out. These two areas of high pressure creates a blocking pattern that creates very weak steering patterns for this area of low pressure. It remains to be seen by me if this system will go warm core but, models are indicating that a warm core system is going to be there.

I am waiting for the 18Z and 00Z to get a better idea of what is going on.

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/8845/wvlnowrg0.jpg

If you take a look at this water vapor loop you might get an idea of what I'm talking about.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

If any pro-mets want to chime in and tell me if my thinking is right here.

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/national_forecast.jpg

High Pressure Currently over the US

High Pressure Building westward


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/TSA_latestBW.gif

One problem I see is your assumption that the high over the Tennessee Valley will push eastward off the east U.S. Coast. For that to happen, the stronger Bermuda High would have to retreat eastward, and that's not likely to happen. Instead, the 2nd low should track to the N-NNE on the western periphery of the Bermuda High. The trof is lifting off to the NE, and the high over the eastern U.S. will follow, tracking NNE-NE not east. As the trof lifts out, the Bermuda High will build westward not eastward.

[SouthFloridawx]

One problem I see is your assumption that the high over the Tennessee Valley will push eastward off the east U.S. Coast. For that to happen, the stronger Bermuda High would have to retreat eastward, and that's not likely to happen. Instead, the 2nd low should track to the N-NNE on the western periphery of the Bermuda High.

Is it possible for the High pressure over Tenn. will lend support to the Bermuda High?

Also interesting to note is NAM developing a closed low off the North Carolina Coast.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[wxman57]

One problem I see is your assumption that the high over the Tennessee Valley will push eastward off the east U.S. Coast. For that to happen, the stronger Bermuda High would have to retreat eastward, and that's not likely to happen. Instead, the 2nd low should track to the N-NNE on the western periphery of the Bermuda High.

Is it possible for the High pressure over Tenn. will lend support to the Bermuda High?

Also interesting to note is GFS developing a closed low off the North Carolina Coast.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

No, the high over the TN valley isn't going east of the east U.S. coast, it's tracking up into eastern Canada.

[SouthFloridawx]

No, the high over the TN valley isn't going east of the east U.S. coast, it's tracking up into eastern Canada.

Ok this is the process that we call Learning...
Thanks for your info.

[cycloneye]

One problem I see is your assumption that the high over the Tennessee Valley will push eastward off the east U.S. Coast. For that to happen, the stronger Bermuda High would have to retreat eastward, and that's not likely to happen. Instead, the 2nd low should track to the N-NNE on the western periphery of the Bermuda High.

Is it possible for the High pressure over Tenn. will lend support to the Bermuda High?

Also interesting to note is GFS developing a closed low off the North Carolina Coast.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

That is the NAM,not the GFS.

[SouthFloridawx]

One problem I see is your assumption that the high over the Tennessee Valley will push eastward off the east U.S. Coast. For that to happen, the stronger Bermuda High would have to retreat eastward, and that's not likely to happen. Instead, the 2nd low should track to the N-NNE on the western periphery of the Bermuda High.

Is it possible for the High pressure over Tenn. will lend support to the Bermuda High?

Also interesting to note is NAM developing a closed low off the North Carolina Coast.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

That is the NAM,not the GFS.

Sorry that is what I meant. Thank you Luis
NAM area analyzed...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... phase1.png

[Regit]

Fla folks I think you all have had you share for the last what 3-4 years now? You all need a break. To work on what has been done to you all. That takes time. I do beleave that the east coast will have theirs again now. It seem to work that way. And yes the gulf coast will have a few but not like they been haveing. Just what I think in my gut.

I would love for the Carolinas (at least parts) to get a nice Tropical Depression/Storm to aid in the rain here... First we didn't have enough, then we had too much, now we need more again... The sea can keep the hurricanes though.

[george_r_1961]

Agreeing we may have something here. Upper winds are weak and this low is sitting over the Gulf Stream. With the blocking pattern setting in I do not think its going out to sea. IMO its just gonna sit there for a few days until something moves it or until a weakness opens up in the ridge..a distinct possibility if development does occur. Something for residents of the coastal Carolinas to pay attention to.

[Recurve]

I think maybe it's time:

WATCH