NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE/GALE AREA, S of NS

[Aric Dunn]

there is only one system out of this stalled front that has any chance and that is about 75 to 76 west and 31 to 33 north ... the others do not.. maybe if the northern most LLC moved into a more favorable enviroment.. but with shear of 30kt its not developing

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 170234
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY
FRONTAL SYSTEM...CONTINUES OFF THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA AND STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FIRST LOW...CENTERED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD MASSACHUSETTS...SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BEFORE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. THE SECOND LOW...
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECOND LOW IS POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN

[Aric Dunn]

yeah its says the same exact thing .. to the word...

[cpdaman]

any pro-mets have an opinion on this low pressure south of north carolina

i know u guys have been accurate in dismissing waves that others have gotten excited about and your opinion on the POTENTIAL of this system would be great.

maybe we need to wait a little longer and see in the morning?

[cpdaman]

here's our little buddy on radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The northern system is getting all its convection sheared to the southeast. But it has a very well defined LLC. In for the time its not moving very much at all...It appears to have just as strong LLC as Alberto did. But the fact is the shear has gotten to it. So forget development with this.

The system to the south looks to have started to develop north of 34 north. Theres a buoy at about 33.5/75 or so that is reporting west winds. While the buoyds over land are reporting northeast winds. Meaning the LLC is forming just north of that buoy. Also the flow pattern looks very good with warm sst's.

The first one its hard to say but if it was not for the shear it would be something. What a waste. The second one very well could become something.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a huge flare up with the northern system with a well defined LLC. Looks like a sheared tropical storm to me...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/avn-l.jpg

[tailgater]

Looks like a huge flare up with the northern system with a well defined LLC. Looks like a sheared tropical storm to me...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/avn-l.jpg

Looks nice on IR but it continues to move over colder waters, won't be Tropical.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is intense and the convection is moving over the center. In yes right now it is tropical based on Fsu. Lets hope the nhc can upgrade later this year. This makes td5e look like a broad area of convection.

[Weatherfreak000]

The LLC is intense and the convection is moving over the center. In yes right now it is tropical based on Fsu. Lets hope the nhc can upgrade later this year. This makes td5e look like a broad area of convection.

If such is so why not upgrade it now?

[tailgater]

From 205 am TWD
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA MAINLY E TO 32N68W
AND BEYOND. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED NE OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N60W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH LIES
ALONG 60W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO S GEORGIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N WEST OF 79W.
BETWEEN 73W-79W. A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC VERY CLOSE TO
THE AZORES IS PRODUCING MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR
WEATHER FROM 15N-30N EAST OF 50W. TYPICAL PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THAT ARE. A LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED
OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 18N21W COVERING MOST OF THE E
ATLANTIC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is intense and the convection is moving over the center. In yes right now it is tropical based on Fsu. Lets hope the nhc can upgrade later this year. This makes td5e look like a broad area of convection.

If such is so why not upgrade it now?

Maybe because of colder waters its about ready to move into.

[Thunder44]

The LLC is intense and the convection is moving over the center. In yes right now it is tropical based on Fsu. Lets hope the nhc can upgrade later this year. This makes td5e look like a broad area of convection.

If such is so why not upgrade it now?

Maybe because of colder waters its about ready to move into.

It's already a tropical or subtropical cyclone, TPC just doesn't want to be bothered with it yet, because it's so far north. But if doesn't move too much now it may wind up affecting Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. The system to the south doesn't look like it's getting any better organized and 0z GFS has backed off development there.

[tailgater]

The LLC is intense and the convection is moving over the center. In yes right now it is tropical based on Fsu. Lets hope the nhc can upgrade later this year. This makes td5e look like a broad area of convection.

Yes Matt, the Northern system does seem to refiring in the last few frames and if it doesn't gain any Lat. it will stay over marginal waters for a bit.

[Thunder44]

481
ABNT20 KNHC 170900
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY
FRONTAL SYSTEM...CONTINUES OFF THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA AND STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FIRST LOW...CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD MASSACHUSETTS...SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS SO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE SECOND
LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...IS LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[brunota2003]

From Morehead City. NC NWS AFD:

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CURRENTLY IN THE FCST THROUGH TUE UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HPC IS MENTIONING MODELS SHOWING PSBL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL LOW
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. A FEW MODELS DEVELOP THIS LOW
AND BRING IT OVER EASTERN NC WED. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL CONT
CURRENT FCST...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.
GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.

[caneman]

06 GFS looks to develop both of these and head off NE.

[drezee]

Man oh Man...That first low is doing one of the best Tropical Cyclone impressions I have seen in a while...it looks better formed than Alberto

[caneman]

Man oh Man...That first low is doing one of the best Tropical Cyclone impressions I have seen in a while...it looks better formed than Alberto

Yeah,

Why it's not already an invest I don't know. A system is a system even if it is moving into colder waters and away from land it should still be classified.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree deep convection with most of the LLC covered now. Looks better then Alberto. I wonder how much more it will take to be upgraded. Hopefully they upgrade it at 11am. If not then maybe later this year, This thing looks wonderful.