Hurricane Daniel (05E) in CPAC

[CrazyC83]

There could be a special advisory...

[senorpepr]

Good I hope this becomes a very strong hurricane.

[cycloneye]

There could be a special advisory...

That can occur if it's close to land.But this new TD being very far from land they will start advisories at the normal time of 8 PM PDT,11 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

17/0000 UTC 12.3N 109.0W T2.0/2.0 91E -- East Pacific Ocean

[Cyclenall]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

We have TD 5-E.

That's good. Now that I clicked on that link my NRL page is updated and not showing the same old invest. Weird since I refreshed that page 3 times in 1 minute.

Good I hope this becomes a very strong hurricane.

Me too. I hope he becomes stronger then his uncle Bud.

I will post my % that I'm thinking for this depression soon.

[bombarderoazul]

Nice indeed, this could become a tropical storm by tomorrow afternoon.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ25 KNHC 170231
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
0300 UTC MON JUL 17 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 109.9W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 109.9W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.6N 111.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.8N 113.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.9N 116.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.9N 117.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 65SE 65SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 13.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 13.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


WTPZ45 KNHC 170238
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006

THE DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE...AND THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE-E. CLOUD TOPS IN CONVECTIVE BANDS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER ARE BETWEEN -70C AND -80C...ALTHOUGH THE BANDS ARE STILL
RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SHIP PFSK REPORTED 23 KT WINDS ABOUT 115
N MI NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AT 00Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE
MODEL ANALYSES SHOW THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN END OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW COMBINING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BUD AND CARLOTTA TO CREATE A LARGE HOLE IN THE RIDGE
FARTHER WEST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD
BUILD WESTWARD AND FILL THE HOLE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND
SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WOULD FORCE THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...
EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS WHICH FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO STAY NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR FIVE DAYS. SINCE THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN EVOLUTION...THIS LACK OF MOTION IS PUZZLING. IT COULD BE
RELATED TO THE NOGAPS NOT DEVELOPING THE CYCLONE ENOUGH. THE
FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR FIVE DAYS
WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION FROM 13 KT TO 8 KT...AND IT IS ALONG THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW. THE GFS...
UKMET...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NOGAPS
LOOKS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT STILL FORECASTS LIGHT SHEAR. DESPITE
THIS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS DO NOT FORECAST A STRONG SYSTEM.
SHIPS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO PEAK AT 65 KT IN 72 HR...WHILE THE
GFDL TAKES 96 HR TO MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE. GIVEN THE LACK OF
OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTORS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR 75 KT
IN 72 HR. THE FORECAST INTENSITY LEVELS OFF AT THAT TIME SINCE THE
SYSTEM MAY BE APPROACHING THE EDGE OF THE WARMEST WATER...
ESPECIALLY IF IT GOES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CYCLONE
CONSOLIDATES IN 24-48 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 12.4N 109.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 12.6N 111.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.8N 113.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 12.9N 116.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 12.9N 117.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 13.0N 121.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 13.0N 124.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 13.5N 127.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[senorpepr]

Links are now up on the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update page at

http://tropicalupdates.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdate.nhcwx.com/epac.htm

[CrazyC83]

My estimated chances for this thing:

Tropical Storm - >95%
Hurricane - 80%
Major Hurricane - 60%
Category 4 Hurricane - 40%
Category 5 Hurricane - 10%

[Scorpion]

10% for a Cat 5? A little over the top if you ask me.

[Cyclenall]

10% for a Cat 5? A little over the top if you ask me.

Yes it is, I would peg it at 1% instead. However, I noticed this part:

THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CYCLONE
CONSOLIDATES IN 24-48 HR.

They don't put that in their discussions very often at all. The last time they said this was Hurricane Beta from 2005. I guess they want to make sure they catch it because of what Bud did.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would say

98 percent chance of tropical storm
70 percent chance for tropical storm by 5am
Hurricane 65 percent chance...*
Major hurricane 30 percent
Cat4 5 percent
cat5 .001 percent

* Notice how far westward it is developing...It will be innering cooler waters alot faster about 2 or 3 degreees west then Bud ever had.

[Cyclenall]

* Notice how far westward it is developing...It will be innering cooler waters alot faster about 2 or 3 degreees west then Bud ever had.

Uh, I just checked the Unisys track maps and TD5-E formed slightly more east of Bud. So what are you talking about?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

[Cyclenall]

:eek:

I can't tell what your telling me .

EDIT: BTW, here are my thoughts on this system in %:

First % chance for TD5-E to become a:

Tropical Storm: 98%
Hurricane: 80%
Major Hurricane: 25%
Category 4 Hurricane: 4%
Category 5 Hurricane: 1%

First % chance that TD5-E will strengthen:

Slowly: 50%
Steady: 75%
Quickly: 75%
Rapidly: 60%
Wilma type Rapidly: 0.1%

First % chance that TD5-E will weaken:

Slowly: 4%
Steady: 3%
Quickly: 0.1%
Rapidly: 0.002%

[P.K.]

WTPZ45 KNHC 170828
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 AM PDT MON JUL 17 2006

THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE...AND LACKS A
CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME.
THERE ARE BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT...BUT THESE
ARE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR
30 KT. ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT INTENSIFIED
SIGNIFICANTLY THUS FAR...ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SYSTEM...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY
WARM...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE SINCE...ONCE THE
SYSTEM ACQUIRES AN INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN DECREASE IN STRENGTH
SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE NEAR/OVER COOLER WATERS...
PARTICULARLY IF IT MOVES SOMEWHAT NORTH OF MY PROJECTED TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
AND SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFDL RUN ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
THE LATTER MODEL AT DAYS 3-5.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD AROUND 12 KT. SOME
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS...IN THE VICINITY OF 115-120W. OTHERWISE A CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOTION APPEARS TO BE FORTHCOMING. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND NOGAPS GLOBAL
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON 5-E. THE U.K.
MODEL ELONGATES THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND
IS UNABLE TO TRACK A DISTINCT CENTER WHILE THE NOGAPS SPLITS THE
SYSTEM IN TWO. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS
MAINTAIN A COHERENT STRUCTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE
BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND DEEP/MEDIUM BAM
PREDICTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 12.4N 111.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 12.5N 112.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.7N 114.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 12.8N 116.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 12.9N 118.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 13.0N 121.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 13.0N 123.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 13.5N 126.5W 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[P.K.]

NRL says this is now TS Daniel.

WHXX01 KMIA 171328
CHGE77

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL (EP052006) ON 20060717 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060717 1200 060718 0000 060718 1200 060719 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.4N 111.7W 12.6N 113.8W 12.5N 115.5W 12.3N 117.0W
BAMM 12.4N 111.7W 12.6N 113.8W 12.4N 115.6W 12.1N 117.2W
LBAR 12.4N 111.7W 12.4N 114.0W 12.4N 116.3W 12.5N 118.6W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS 55KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060719 1200 060720 1200 060721 1200 060722 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 118.4W 12.7N 120.7W 12.9N 123.2W 13.2N 126.2W
BAMM 11.7N 118.9W 11.6N 121.5W 11.6N 123.6W 12.1N 125.2W
LBAR 12.2N 120.9W 12.0N 124.5W 11.1N 127.2W 10.6N 129.1W
SHIP 62KTS 67KTS 67KTS 63KTS
DSHP 62KTS 67KTS 67KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 111.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 109.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 106.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

[HurricaneHunter914]

Doesn't look like TS Daniel on SAT.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

[Derek Ortt]

This is a TS... no doubt about it

[cycloneye]

5 KNHC 171417
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
800 AM PDT MON JUL 17 2006

CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND
SYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVERALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND 33 KT
AND 1005 MB FROM A 17/0903Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE. THEREFORE...THE
CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DANIEL. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS NEARLY SYMMETRICAL AND ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO STILL BE WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF 10 KT. SYMPATHETIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL BETWEEN IT AND THE
REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS TYPE OF RIDGING PATTERN TO PERSIST...
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DANIEL ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WEAKENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS AS ALLUDED TO IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY DISCUSSION.

THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE...LESS THAN 5 KT...THROUGH 96 HOURS. THIS
TYPE OF LOW-SHEAR PATTERN...COUPLED WITH THE CURRENT DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNEL PATTER... USUALLY WOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...YET
THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS DANIEL UP 67 KT IN 72 HOURS. IN
CONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL MAKES DANIEL A 100 KT HURRICANE BY THE
SAME TIME. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL
HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT BY 48 HOURS...BUT
DANIEL IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING ABLE TO MIX OUT DRY AIR
THAT HAS BEEN PUNCHING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION THE PAST DAY OR
SO. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN THE GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.4N 112.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.6N 113.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 12.6N 115.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 12.6N 116.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 12.7N 118.8W 75 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 12.9N 121.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 13.0N 124.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 13.5N 127.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART