Tropical Storm Beryl

Rainband · #41 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:32 am

brunota2003 wrote:
ThunderMate wrote:This week should be fun then!
Yea...I'm sitting here near Morehead City, a weak Tropical Storm would be no big deal, but if it bombs...yikes!

It's a weak low. :lol:

Anything is possible but I would doubt it.

Rainband · #42 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:34 am

ncdowneast wrote:waters on some of the offshore buoys are running 83.7 or better so its a growing concern for the EC IF and i mean IF it develops!Alex and Gaston both ramped up very quickly and if this one does the same there may not be a ton of time to prepare or evac the Outer banks if it threatens anyone!

Alot of times people look way out into the Atlantic for systems that may threaten them but the real possibility of a "homegrown" system that explodes is a bigger concern because of the lessened warning times!

The worst of the weather would be to the east. Just keep an eye on but right now it's not even a depression. :wink:

shaggy · #43 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:38 am

storms in NC wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:waters on some of the offshore buoys are running 83.7 or better so its a growing concern for the EC IF and i mean IF it develops!Alex and Gaston both ramped up very quickly and if this one does the same there may not be a ton of time to prepare or evac the Outer banks if it threatens anyone!

Alot of times people look way out into the Atlantic for systems that may threaten them but the real possibility of a "homegrown" system that explodes is a bigger concern because of the lessened warning times!
NCdowneast, I don't think it is to move west any but to stay off shore. I don't think it would be much to have people to evac. It would be more of a rain maker.if it did move on shore. But that is just my thoughts cause right now it is not doing any thing. No flare ups that I can see.

complacency is what got NOLA in so much trouble and i am sure before Floyd you never thought your house would be flooded either.The thing to remember is that none of us can control what this weak little low can do with the right fuel like the gulfstream.I am not saying run for the hills but you never know what this low might do.The waters are very warm out there and if it sits right over those waters then it bears close watching.The bermuda high is expected to start to nudge back westward by midweek so we will see what happens!

#44 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:40 am

ncdowneast wrote:
storms in NC wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:waters on some of the offshore buoys are running 83.7 or better so its a growing concern for the EC IF and i mean IF it develops!Alex and Gaston both ramped up very quickly and if this one does the same there may not be a ton of time to prepare or evac the Outer banks if it threatens anyone!

Alot of times people look way out into the Atlantic for systems that may threaten them but the real possibility of a "homegrown" system that explodes is a bigger concern because of the lessened warning times!
NCdowneast, I don't think it is to move west any but to stay off shore. I don't think it would be much to have people to evac. It would be more of a rain maker.if it did move on shore. But that is just my thoughts cause right now it is not doing any thing. No flare ups that I can see.

complacency is what got NOLA in so much trouble and i am sure before Floyd you never thought your house would be flooded either.The thing to remember is that none of us can control what this weak little low can do with the right fuel like the gulfstream.I am not saying run for the hills but you never know what this low might do.The waters are very warm out there and if it sits right over those waters then it bears close watching.The bermuda high is expected to start to nudge back westward by midweek so we will see what happens!

You are right on that point. 8-)

#45 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:40 am

Rainband wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:
ThunderMate wrote:This week should be fun then!
Yea...I'm sitting here near Morehead City, a weak Tropical Storm would be no big deal, but if it bombs...yikes!
It's a weak low. Anything is possible but I would doubt it.

I think Stacy sums it up best:
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
JMHO of course, but we do not know where it is going, I'm not worried...just curious... :lol:

Rainband · #46 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:41 am

Yes typical script from the NHC :lol:

cpdaman · #47 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:47 am

anyone is the low pressure were watching centered at 31.5 n 75 west or 34 71 w

THE REASON i ask is

on the invest when u run the various visible/ infared loops the low pressure logo (1012 mb) is centered over 34 71 west (which differs with what the outlook mentions

anyone?

#48 Postby **M_0331** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:48 am

to all cane wishers: please don't wish in my backyard.

Eddie S/F

#49 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:51 am

cpdaman wrote:anyone is the low pressure were watching centered at 31.5 n 75 west or 34 71 w

THE REASON i ask is

on the invest when u run the various visible/ infared loops the low pressure logo (1012 mb) is centered over 34 71 west (which differs with what the outlook mentions

anyone?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

What I see is the correct position.31.5n.-75.4w.

#50 Postby **TheEuropean** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:51 am

Floater#1 is now on Invest 97L:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

Regit · #51 Postby **Regit** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:52 am

M_0331 wrote:to all cane wishers: please don't wish in my backyard.

Eddie S/F

Couldn't Moultrie use a little extra water in it? I know most of the state needs some.

Rainband · #52 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:56 am

Looking at the water vapor. Lots of Dry air to fight off.

#53 Postby **M_0331** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 10:58 am

Regit,
real funny.
Eddie

#54 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 11:00 am

Interesting that this system became less organized at nite and flared up during the day. I agree that a TD could form out there in the next day or so...or more likely a subtropical depression. Its not likely to move much at all at least for today, then I think a slow NW drift may start. Something to watch for our members in the coastal Carolinas.

Regit · #55 Postby **Regit** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 11:00 am

M_0331 wrote:Regit,
real funny.
Eddie

I was being serious, but ok, whatever you want. :lol:

South Carolina is fairly dry right now and a TD/weak TS could be a good thing.

SCMedic · #56 Postby **SCMedic** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 11:09 am

South Carolina is super dry right now...All the local ponds and lakes are low, and it's killing my bass fishing! A little tropical storm wouldn't kill us!

Bring it!

#57 Postby **M_0331** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 11:10 am

Reqit,
10-4 , but not real dry. over and out. got to go out. talk later.

Eddie Semper Fi

#58 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 11:45 am

It looks like it is trying to wrap around the center and fireing up a little? Or am I seeing things?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

#59 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 11:47 am

Well its still pretty disorganized. Convection has fired back up again but at this time I do not see it clustering around the "center".

shaggy · #60 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 11:54 am

on the contrary even tho its disorganized seems the system is consolidating and seems to have more overall convection even tho its not terrbily organized convection.

Tropical Storm Beryl

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