Severe Tropical Storm Kaemi (06W) Made Landfall in China

[cycloneye]

For those who may not know where this system is located,it's well ESE of Guam .Let's see if it develops into a Cyclone.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 171421Z JUL 06//
WTPN21 PGTW 171430
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.5N 148.8E TO 10.8N 143.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 171130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.5N 148.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 181430Z.
//



Graphic

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
405 PM LST MON JUL 17 2006

GUZ001-002-003-004-172200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
405 PM LST MON JUL 17 2006

...WET AND BREEZY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK...

A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF GUAM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAINY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE MARIANA ISLANDS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT 3 PM LST...THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED
JUST NORTHWEST OF CHUUK NEAR LATITUDE 8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
151 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 565 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND 605
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN.

THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...
PASSING 150 TO 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THAT TIME.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY...WITH UP
TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...REACHING 25 MPH AT
TIMES WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN HEAVY SHOWERS.

IF YOU WILL BE DRIVING OR WORKING OUTDOORS THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BE PREPARED FOR WET WEATHER AND POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS.
LISTEN FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE MARIANAS.

$$
MIDDLEBROOKE




Special Statement from Guam.

[P.K.]

1008hPa.

WWJP25 RJTD 171200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1006 HPA
AT 37N 144E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 20 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 37N 144E TO 38N 147E 39N 150E.
COLD FRONT FROM 37N 144E TO 36N 141E 35N 139E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 139E TO 34N 135E 35N 130E 37N 124E 37N
119E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW SOUTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 140E 35N 140E
42N 142E 46N 150E 51N 157E 60N 166E 60N 180E 36N 180E 30N 150E 32N
140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 44N 139E EAST 10 KT.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 58N 143E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 51N 167E EAST 20 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 14N 125E WNW 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 08N 149E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 45N 155E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 36N 179E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 39N 150E TO 40N 154E 42N 160E 44N 166E 48N 173E
49N 180E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[cycloneye]

Peter,what will be the name if it forms into a storm?

[P.K.]

Kaemi, which is Korean for ant. You might see it listed elsewhere as Gaemi though as it appears they asked for the spelling to be changed after setting the name lists.

[cycloneye]

Kaemi, which is Korean for ant. You might see it listed elsewhere as Gaemi though as it appears they asked for the spelling to be changed after setting the name lists.

Thank you as always for the answer.

[HurricaneBill]

Hopefully, Kaemi won't turn into Maemi.

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php ... 1&loop=yes

Radar long range loop from Guam where already scattered showers are moving thru.But the bulk of the system is expected to pass just south of that island.

[P.K.]

This is now a TD.

WWJP25 RJTD 171800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 38N 149E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 38N 149E TO 39N 155E 41N 159E.
COLD FRONT FROM 38N 149E TO 36N 146E 35N 141E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 141E TO 34N 135E 34N 130E 36N 119E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST
SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 42N 143E
47N 151E 55N 162E 60N 164E 60N 180E 35N 180E 30N 150E 29N 140E 35N
140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 44N 139E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 58N 145E ESE 15 KT.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 52N 169E ENE 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09N 148E WNW 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 14N 125E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1014 HPA AT 48N 158E ENE 25 KT.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 35N 179E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 41N 159E TO 44N 170E 47N 180E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[cycloneye]

Peter,what number is this one? To edit the title.

[P.K.]

TDs are not numbered in this area. I tend to just put the coordinates in the title for TDs in this area.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171421Z JUL 06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN31 PGTW 180300
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 9.5N 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 10.8N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 12.4N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.1N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.8N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.7N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 146.3E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 171421Z
JUL 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 171430 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN


Graphic

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
120 PM GUAM LST TUE JUL 18 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W HAS FORMED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

AT 1 PM GUAM LST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.3 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
305 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
360 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN
370 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...9.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 146.3 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30 MPH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
8 PM LST.

$$
MIDDLEBROOKE

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 09.5N 145.0E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 10.4N 143.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT

[senorpepr]

Links for 06W are on the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update page

http://tropicalupdates.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdate.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 004
WTPN31 PGTW 182100
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 10.8N 143.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 143.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.0N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.4N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 14.9N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.8N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.1N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 21.9N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.1N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 143.0E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[P.K.]

Its not upgraded yet Luis, although the lastest advisory should be out in about 20 minutes.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 005
WTPN31 PGTW 190300
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 11.0N 142.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 142.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 12.1N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 13.4N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 14.9N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.3N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.8N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.2N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 141.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN



JTWC has it at 35kts.

[P.K.]

Its a tropical storm now. The number of this one is 0605.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0605 KAEMI (0605)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 11.7N 140.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 14.1N 137.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
48HF 210600UTC 16.3N 134.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 220600UTC 17.6N 132.5E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT