Tropical Storm Beryl

#101 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:41 pm

45 now? hmmm...its gone up...IF it is right of course...

Derek Ortt · #102 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:45 pm

the SHIPS model is based off of the BAMM when ther eis not an official forecast. In other words, its useless as that is a useless model at this latitude. Plus, SHIPS assumes we alreayd have a depression, which this thing is not anywhere near TD status yet.

I wouldn't put any stock into SHIPS until we have a TD and an official forecast

#103 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:46 pm

I would wait for the next diurnal maximum to see how the system responds.

#104 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:47 pm

Looking at the latest loop this thing hasnt gotten any better organized at all the past few hours. Gotta wait and see if any nocturnal convection pops up later.

#105 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:48 pm

hey...NRL bumped it up from 20 to 25 knots...

#106 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:48 pm

18:00z Graphic.

Weatherfreak14 · #107 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:49 pm

Gosh, I'm all the way here in Indiana and there is an invest straight off my coast. Wish I was home so I can be closer to this thing.lol

IMO the invest on the sat doesent look that much impressive IMO. Although in that area is marginally favorable.

#108 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:49 pm

brunota2003 wrote:hey...NRL bumped it up from 20 to 25 knots...

NRL takes the info from the runs of the BAM models.

that at 18:00z has the initial plot at 25kts.

Thunder44 · #109 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:50 pm

I believe the Ships forecast typically react to the increase of intensity at initialization. So 45kts forecast may be more response due to that.

#110 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:51 pm

brunota2003 wrote:hey...NRL bumped it up from 20 to 25 knots...

#111 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 1:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:hey...NRL bumped it up from 20 to 25 knots...

NRL takes the info from the runs of the BAM models. that at 18:00z has the initial plot at 25kts.

Ah...ok...see, you do learn something new everyday... :lol:

#112 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:15 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:the SHIPS model is based off of the BAMM when ther eis not an official forecast. In other words, its useless as that is a useless model at this latitude. Plus, SHIPS assumes we alreayd have a depression, which this thing is not anywhere near TD status yet.

I wouldn't put any stock into SHIPS until we have a TD and an official forecast

I'd add that I wouldn't trust the BAM model output at so far north a latitude as far as a projected track. Winds north of 30N are much more dynamic, and the BAM models won't necessarily account for the rapidly-changing steering currents. A track to the N-NE looks more likely than to the west. The BAMs just don't see the steering level changes coming.

Derek Ortt · #113 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:27 pm

Also, the globals do a better job of developing the system NE of the islands as a closed surface feature (though very weak) than they do the EC system

Do not see much potential for any significant intensification at this time

#114 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:29 pm

I don't see any change in this. Well there be? who knows :roll:

#115 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:40 pm

Rainband · #116 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 2:59 pm

skysummit wrote:

Thanks Sky. Most of the models take "it" NE. Makes sense since thats what the pros are saying. :wink:

Aric Dunn · #117 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 3:07 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well here is the simple fact everyone regardless of what everyone say or the models... or anything except current synoptic data ..... 97 L is nto going anywhere for at least 2 maybe three days....... if it develops now or later... or if at all.... with the Massive High that streches from colorodo to canada east to MAss in place and building eastward 97l is not going to move very fast.. it will be slow eratic motion motion with proabably a little south componet to its drift over the short term do to the High building east a south... after that ..it may beging to move out if and only if the trough that is forcast to approach the area even makes it that far south and is as strong as its forcast to be.. .. but from the present strength of the ridge it is unlikely that anything will push that far south as to push the system NE anytime soon... ( maybe in 3 to 4 days) . the pattern is well in place and there are may places from South and north Dakota east to PA and Maine that have had record highs over the past several days and there are no indications that the pattern will change anytime soon.. there is nothing coming down the pike !!!! .... So SLOW ERATIC MOTION IS LIKELY THEN PROBABLY NNW THEN N THEN NNE ONCE SOMETHING COMES AND KICKS IT OUT!! So in other words watch or better organization.... ( and by the way if it does intesify the cahges many aspects of steering) becuase right now steering is more southerly then anything in all layers so if we see a TD OR STORM for it will have a slow southerly componet to it.... ( and condition are at least decently favorable or that to happen .. once it breaks from the trough it is currently attached to.. which is not allowing the NE quad to Close off...

Aric Dunn · #118 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 3:11 pm

but there maybe some signs of the NE quad closing off the circualtion... at least on visible and some bouy and ship reports ...... but we need to wait and see

#119 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 3:13 pm

Aric Dunn,I included a disclaimer at the top of your post.It is required to have a disclaimer for posts like that one.

#120 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 3:14 pm

Taking a look at the latest surface analysis and visible imagery, I think 25 kts may be a bit high on the estimate for winds around this weak low. Maybe 5-15 kts would be more realistic. Not much of a gradient there:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/97L.gif

Tropical Storm Beryl

Who is online