Tropical Storm Beryl
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cheezyWXguy
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brunota2003
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cycloneye
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cheezywxman wrote:do you guys think it will be a depression in the 11 AM?
Recon will tell that answer this afternoon around 2 PM EDT when it gets into the area.
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brunota2003
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
355 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS
AGAIN TODAY WITH RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING IN THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD DUE TO THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL FOLLOW HPC'S
LEAD AND LEAN TOWARD THE NAM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND CHANCE POPS FOR THU. MOS TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE...WILL LOWER HIGHS FOR THU A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO LONG TERM. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST
DUE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER TROF. THE TROF SHOULD DRIVE A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON LATE FRIDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS EACH DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLENTIFUL SUPPLY WITH A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE TROF ALOFT AND THE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
TO OUR SOUTH.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
355 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS
AGAIN TODAY WITH RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING IN THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD DUE TO THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WILL FOLLOW HPC'S
LEAD AND LEAN TOWARD THE NAM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND CHANCE POPS FOR THU. MOS TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS
REASONABLE...WILL LOWER HIGHS FOR THU A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO LONG TERM. SFC LOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST
DUE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER TROF. THE TROF SHOULD DRIVE A FRONTAL
SYSTEM INTO THE AREA ON LATE FRIDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS EACH DAY
FOR THE EXTENDED. MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLENTIFUL SUPPLY WITH A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THE TROF ALOFT AND THE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
TO OUR SOUTH.
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HouTXmetro
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Coredesat
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Blown Away
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Coredesat
TCFA issued!
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 181130Z JUL 06//
WTNT 01 KNGU 181200
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30.0N 74.0W TO 34.2N 73.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 180600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 32.0N 73.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191300Z.//
#0001
Not only that, but TCFA graphics now seem to have model plots superimposed on them:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 071806.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 181130Z JUL 06//
WTNT 01 KNGU 181200
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30.0N 74.0W TO 34.2N 73.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 180600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 32.0N 73.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191300Z.//
#0001
Not only that, but TCFA graphics now seem to have model plots superimposed on them:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 071806.gif
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Stormcenter
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AtlanticWind
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1500 UTC Tue Jul 18 2006
at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
the eastern coast of North Carolina from north of Cape Lookout
northward to south of Currituck Beach Light.
Tropical depression center located near 32.5n 73.4w at 18/1500z
position accurate within 30 nm
present movement toward the north or 360 degrees at 4 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 1011 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 32.5n 73.4w at 18/1500z
at 18/1200z center was located near 32.3n 73.4w
forecast valid 19/0000z 33.3n 73.7w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 40ne 40se 30sw 20nw.
Forecast valid 19/1200z 33.9n 74.1w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 40nw.
Forecast valid 20/0000z 34.7n 74.8w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
Forecast valid 20/1200z 35.5n 75.0w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 20se 0sw 20nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 50sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 21/1200z 36.9n 74.7w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 10sw 20nw.
34 kt... 70ne 70se 50sw 60nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 22/1200z 38.5n 71.0w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
Outlook valid 23/1200z 42.0n 63.0w...becoming extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 32.5n 73.4w
next advisory at 18/2100z
$$
forecaster Stewart
at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
the eastern coast of North Carolina from north of Cape Lookout
northward to south of Currituck Beach Light.
Tropical depression center located near 32.5n 73.4w at 18/1500z
position accurate within 30 nm
present movement toward the north or 360 degrees at 4 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 1011 mb
Max sustained winds 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 32.5n 73.4w at 18/1500z
at 18/1200z center was located near 32.3n 73.4w
forecast valid 19/0000z 33.3n 73.7w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 40ne 40se 30sw 20nw.
Forecast valid 19/1200z 33.9n 74.1w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 40nw.
Forecast valid 20/0000z 34.7n 74.8w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 40sw 50nw.
Forecast valid 20/1200z 35.5n 75.0w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 20se 0sw 20nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 50sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 21/1200z 36.9n 74.7w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 10sw 20nw.
34 kt... 70ne 70se 50sw 60nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 22/1200z 38.5n 71.0w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
Outlook valid 23/1200z 42.0n 63.0w...becoming extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 32.5n 73.4w
next advisory at 18/2100z
$$
forecaster Stewart
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TheEuropean
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Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 18, 2006
...Second tropical depression of the season forms off the North
Carolina coast...
...Tropical storm watch issued for eastern North Carolina...
at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
the eastern coast of North Carolina from north of Cape Lookout
northward to south of Currituck Beach Light.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 32.5 north...longitude 73.4 west or about 220
miles...355 km...south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
The depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph. A slow turn
toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected to occur later
tonight or Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and
the depression could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.
Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...32.5 N...73.4 W. Movement
toward...north near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.
$$
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 18, 2006
...Second tropical depression of the season forms off the North
Carolina coast...
...Tropical storm watch issued for eastern North Carolina...
at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
the eastern coast of North Carolina from north of Cape Lookout
northward to south of Currituck Beach Light.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 32.5 north...longitude 73.4 west or about 220
miles...355 km...south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
The depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph. A slow turn
toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected to occur later
tonight or Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and
the depression could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.
Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...32.5 N...73.4 W. Movement
toward...north near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.
$$
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cheezyWXguy
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