Tropical Storm Beryl

[senorpepr]

Tomorrow's flight plan for recon:

Code: Select all

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
       FLIGHT ONE                     FLIGHT TWO
       A. 19/1800, 20/0000Z           A. 20/0600,1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE         B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
       C. 19/1400Z                    C. 20/0145Z
       D. 34.3N 74.4W                 D. 35.1N 74.9W
       E. 19/1700Z TO 20/0000Z        E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT             F. SFC TO 10,000FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
       IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
                        JWP


[Thunder44]

TD2 does look attached to the front and it looks like hopefully North Carolina will be spared a direct hit but things do change. Judgeing by the sat pic TD2 should follow up the front.

It's not attached to a front. That front has dissapated around TD 2. If it were attached to a front it will not be classisfied as a tropical cyclone.

[x-y-no]

Just a reminder to folks to check the Tropical Analysis forum. Both Don Sutherland and Derek Ortt have posted about this system.

[Stormcenter]

Wow, I just woke up and I come here to find TD #2. I was so happy I hugged my dad.

Okay and why is that?

[skysummit]

[Thunder44]

Wow, I just woke up and I come here to find TD #2. I was so happy I hugged my dad.

Okay and why is that?

I can never imagine me and dad doing that for almost anything.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I just get so hyper that I do crazy things. But anyway it looks like shear shouldn't be a problem for TD #2.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[caribepr]

Get your supplies now if you didn't already.

we have everything...we have the hurricane box sitting in the living room, have had it since the beginning of the hurricane season

That is the sort of post I LOVE to read! What a wonderful difference to read, I'm ready, rather than...oh man! hours in line, all the water is gone, people were freaking in the stores, etc. etc. Good on ya!

[brunota2003]

Get your supplies now if you didn't already.

we have everything...we have the hurricane box sitting in the living room, have had it since the beginning of the hurricane season

That is the sort of post I LOVE to read! What a wonderful difference to read, I'm ready, rather than...oh man! hours in line, all the water is gone, people were freaking in the stores, etc. etc. Good on ya!

thank you, if it gets to looking to bad the only things we have to do is gas up the trucks and get some money...we are good on food as far as I know, maybe just go by some extra food...but thats it, no batteries, no water, no other supplies needed...

[clfenwi]

Those who write the TWD's are not true interns, even if their job title states as such. All TAFB perseonnel are currently GS9 or higher

Having been a volunteer in a NWS office, (which is more like being an intern than the people who actually ave the title of intern), I was aware of that...

[Derek Ortt]

which WFO did you volunteer at?

[brunota2003]

I'm going to my office this weekend to do some job shadowing, weather permitting of course!!!

[clfenwi]

which WFO did you volunteer at?

Wakefield, during the time Hugh Cobb was the SOO there.

[dixiebreeze]

Guess I'd better call our relatives in Jacksonville, NC to see if they know about TD 2.

[NCHurricane]

Shame on me for not checking the weather before I left the house this morning. I didn't expect anything until later today.

Newport HLS:

WTUS82 KMHX 181530
HLSMHX
AMZ150-152-154-156-NCZ095-103-181930-

TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
CARTERET...DARE AND HYDE.

...WATCHES...
AT 11 AM EDT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE
COAST FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. A SLOW TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
COASTAL RESIDENTS FROM CARTERET COUNTY NORTH ALONG THE OUTER BANKS
ARE URGED TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO PROTECT ANY PROPERTY THAT MAY BE
THREATENED BY TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...WINDS WILL START TO REACH TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER BANKS.


...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3 PM.

Chuck Copeland
http://www.nchurricane.com - Tracking TD#2

[shaggy]

maybe i am reading to much into this but i was looking at the HPC homesite and checked the QPF forecast and it shows the main swath of moisture with this system as being inland over the sounds and eastern part of the state not east of the OBX which is where the system is suppose to be going.Maybe its nothing but i know sometimes the HPC may have a slightly different opinion than the NHC but you never see them go against the NHC


heres the link

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

[NCHurricane]

maybe i am reading to much into this but i was looking at the HPC homesite and checked the QPF forecast and it shows the main swath of moisture with this system as being inland over the sounds and eastern part of the state not east of the OBX which is where the system is suppose to be going.Maybe its nothing but i know sometimes the HPC may have a slightly different opinion than the NHC but you never see them go against the NHC


heres the link

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif

Maybe they aren't expecting the southernly flow to be as strong as some are, thus allowing the system to brush the OBX. Or possibly, they aren't expecting it to organize much and pass just offshore with a wide swath of moisture, instead of a tight system with most of the moisture offshore.

Not sure myself, just throwing thoughts out there.

Heading back to work. Cya later.

Chuck Copeland
http://www.nchurricane.com - Tracking TD#2

[skysummit]

Maybe a few Cat 1 gusts offshore????

[wxwatcher91]

Im surprised that the NHC has a 2% in the cat 4-5 column at 72 hours

[Lowpressure]

At this juncture, I would bet we see a nice Hurricane grazing the OBX then heading out. I feel it will be stronger than the 75mph so far indicated. These tend to get deep quick and in pulses.

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.