Tropical Storm Beryl

[WindRunner]

WTNT32 KNHC 181754
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF CURRITUCK
BEACH LIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES...340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. A SLOW TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF
ITS LOCATION AND STRENGTH LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...32.8 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Better organized . . . I think that's the code word for upgraded

[Jim Cantore]

Mine as well call it Beryl

[brunota2003]

I think thats the word for recon should find TS force winds...

[stormtruth]

Other than beach erosion it doesn't look like it will be much of a threat -- at least taking that path.

[Jim Cantore]

I think thats the word for recon should find TS force winds...

If I may dust off an old chestnut

[Lowpressure]

Even though these tend to deepen rather quickly sometimes, be aware that many times the wind needs to catch up with the organization while forming. It will be interesting to see recon. It could go either way, minimal TS or 60mph and a surprise. Either way, it is getting better organized.

[Noles2006]

My best estimates... [lol... I always see these and get annoyed by them... but I'll post my thoughts, anyway]

TS: 95%
Hurricane [Cat 1 or 2]: 20%
Cat 3: 3%
Cat 4: <2%
Cat 5: <1%

[DESTRUCTION5]

My best estimates... [lol... I always see these and get annoyed by them... but I'll post my thoughts, anyway]

TS: 95%
Hurricane [Cat 1 or 2]: 20%
Cat 3: 3%
Cat 4: <2%
Cat 5: <1%

I think this will make Cane Status...I say 80MPH

[Lowpressure]

I will go with 55mph for the 5pm adv.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This thing is reminding me of Alex in '04 a little bit, except it probably won't come as close to the coast. Despite the current intensity forecasts, I just have a feeling that if it meanders over the Gulf Stream waters, and shear is low, that this *may* become a minimal hurricane before moving safely out to see. Had Alex not been forecast to make landfall initially over South Carolina, even though it was poorly organized when it developed, I would have probably given it a slight chance of becoming a hurricane also.

I say this depression gets no stronger than 80-85 mph, but I'm just not under the full belief that this won't become a hurricane for some reason.

-Andrew92

[Jim Cantore]

I'll make my estimates

TD: 100%
TS: 97%
Cat 1: 45%
Cat 2: 15%
Cat 3: 3%
Cat 4: 1%
Cat 5: <1%

[Noles2006]

We shall see... I very well may have underestimated the prospects for this system... if it does happen to make 'cane status, hopefully it'll be after any brush with North Carolinaaaaa [come on and raise up.... sorry, crap, now I've got Petey Pablo in my darn head]...

[kenl01]

Well, a typical early season type system.
Looks like some heavy surf benefiting surfers along the NC outer banks.............

[Nimbus]

The sea surface temperatures off new england are about 5 degrees above normal. Storm seems to be moving a little faster than first reports but recon will have more definative data. Southern New England has not had a hurricane in a few years and there has been a lot of development in the low lying coastal areas so its worth keeping an eye on this thing. New England should be in the cone by tomorrow.

[Thunder44]

12z GFDL shifted west. Makes landfall on Central Long Island.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

622
WHXX04 KWBC 181733
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO 02L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 32.5 73.6 40./ 5.0
6 32.9 73.7 334./ 4.2
12 33.5 74.0 338./ 5.7
18 34.2 74.1 347./ 7.2
24 34.6 74.2 344./ 4.7
30 35.0 74.4 338./ 4.2
36 35.6 74.5 355./ 5.9
42 36.4 74.4 1./ 8.3
48 37.1 74.1 25./ 6.9
54 37.7 74.0 14./ 6.2
60 38.7 74.0 1./ 9.6
66 39.7 73.5 26./11.1
72 41.1 72.8 25./15.2

STORM DISSIPATED AT 72 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[Lowpressure]

12z GFDL shifted west. Makes landfall on Central Long Island.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

Lets initialize before we start landfall predictions. Models are basically clueless until recon plot plugged in.

[Thunder44]

12z GFDL shifted west. Makes landfall on Central Long Island.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

Lets initialize before we start landfall predictions. Models are basically clueless until recon plot plugged in.

Not my prediction. Just a model plot.

[Jim Cantore]

12z GFDL shifted west. Makes landfall on Central Long Island.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

very intresting

[Brent]

12z GFDL shifted west. Makes landfall on Central Long Island.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

I expect this to be Beryl soon and I think it's got a good chance at becoming a hurricane.

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFDL shifted west. Makes landfall on Central Long Island.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

very intresting

uh-oh. May be the doomsday NY scenario could be coming to life. Hopefully not, but there seems to be a chance. I would watch this very closely if I were in the Big Apple.