Tropical Storm Beryl

[Lowpressure]

12z GFDL shifted west. Makes landfall on Central Long Island.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

Lets initialize before we start landfall predictions. Models are basically clueless until recon plot plugged in.

Not my prediction. Just a model plot.

You are correct, I was just saying models need to initialize before we know much. Did not mean to take a shot, it was not meant to be as such.

[Thunder44]

12z GFDL shifted west. Makes landfall on Central Long Island.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

Lets initialize before we start landfall predictions. Models are basically clueless until recon plot plugged in.

Not my prediction. Just a model plot.

You are correct, I was just saying models need to initialize before we know much. Did not mean to take a shot, it was not meant to be as such.

You're forgiven

[Thunder44]

12z GFDL shifted west. Makes landfall on Central Long Island.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

very intresting

uh-oh. May be the doomsday NY scenario could be coming to life. Hopefully not, but there seems to be a chance. I would watch this very closely if I were in the Big Apple.

Bring it on!

[conestogo_flood]

CNN isn't even on the story. They are more worried about the American evacuation, the same thing all day. Boring. Anyways, usually they jump on TDs.

[cheezyWXguy]

my grandma lives out on long island and I doubt she knows whats going on...she doesnt watch much TV

[skysummit]

Don't fret....I'm sure Geraldo is on his way.

[Lowpressure]

Don't fret....I'm sure Geraldo is on his way.

Him and Jim Cantore and his foolish goggles from last year- what an idiot.

[AnnularCane]

Don't fret....I'm sure Geraldo is on his way.

That will make me fret.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

12z GFDL shifted west. Makes landfall on Central Long Island.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

very intresting

uh-oh. May be the doomsday NY scenario could be coming to life. Hopefully not, but there seems to be a chance. I would watch this very closely if I were in the Big Apple.

Bring it on!

Even if it did become a Tropical Storm and make landfall on Long Island, there's not much change of a "doomsday" event.

[Grease Monkey]

I think Jim is awesome at reporting. The words he uses. When he looks down, closes his eyes and shakes his head. The intensity and the passion lol. Just can't get enough of Jim. Some quotes from him that I think I remember from last year: "This thing is a whole new animal" or "This is thing is like a machine."

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

TD #2 looks to have already started to move to the NNE.

[TS Zack]

Unless this thing stays very weak I do not see the GFDL scenario happening. By 72hrs the steering flow will become due West across all of the Northeast. At that point wherever this thing is, it will get caught in that flow and shot NE.

[terstorm1012]

Given that a front is due to come through over the next couple days here in the NE, i'm thinking Don and Derek and MWatkins have it right (they posted over in the analysis forum)

but i'll wait for recon to fix the center and reinitalize.

[WindRunner]

We have TS Beryl now . . .

[HurricaneHunter914]

WE DO!?

[drezee]

507
WHXX01 KWBC 181911
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM TWO (AL022006) ON 20060718 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060718 1800 060719 0600 060719 1800 060720 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.9N 73.3W 33.6N 73.9W 34.6N 74.4W 35.7N 74.6W
BAMM 32.9N 73.3W 33.6N 74.0W 34.6N 74.5W 35.4N 74.7W
A98E 32.9N 73.3W 34.1N 73.2W 35.5N 72.6W 36.6N 71.4W
LBAR 32.9N 73.3W 33.9N 73.4W 35.4N 73.4W 37.0N 72.8W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 50KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060720 1800 060721 1800 060722 1800 060723 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.4N 74.7W 38.3N 72.3W 40.9N 61.3W 39.6N 47.9W
BAMM 36.4N 74.8W 38.9N 71.0W 42.0N 58.9W 41.8N 43.2W
A98E 37.8N 69.5W 40.7N 63.1W 43.2N 50.6W 39.1N 35.9W
LBAR 38.9N 71.7W 43.3N 65.1W 47.4N 52.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 50KTS 50KTS 44KTS 34KTS
DSHP 50KTS 50KTS 44KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.9N LONCUR = 73.3W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 31.7N LONM12 = 73.4W DIRM12 = 19DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 31.1N LONM24 = 74.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

We have TS Beryl now . . .

Really? Do you have a link.. the NHC hasn't updated yet. Or maybe it's just not showing up on my comp. It took a few minutes to update last year too for me.

[skysummit]

Even though the models say TS, wouldn't it be a good idea not to jump the gun just yet???

[Thunder44]

The models initialized at 35kts, which would make TS Beryl at 5pm. However, this was done apparently just before the plane measured any TS force winds. They could decide not to upgrade it again, but probably not.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Recon hasn't even found TS force winds yet.